Happenings
Working away on article for Policy about whether governments can buy votes. Been looking at correlations between shift in incumbent Federal Governments’ two-Party-preferred vote and three inflation-adjusted indicators - change in Commonwealth expenditure per head, change in Commonwealth receipts per head, change in GDP per head - each over life of the Parliament and in the election year. Some striking results (which I am not going to post until the article comes out in Policy).
Will say that tax-and-spend really doesn’t work for Coalition governments. If you feed in the Budget projections, assume an election in November or later (i.e. late enough for 2004/05 effects to count), the result which best preserves the correlations for Coalition incumbents is a 2.6%pt swing against the Government. Which, by my electoral pendulum calculations, would give the ALP an 8-seat majority.
You heard it here first folks.
(Of course, there is no particular reason why the correlations should be preserved. On the other hand, it does, based on the 7 elections faced by Coalition incumbents from 1969, indicate the electoral tendencies of the Howard Government’s tax-and-spend policies. And for my non-Australian readers, a good summary of the Australian electoral system. One that can even tell the difference between gerrymandering, of which Australia has had little, and malapportionment, of which we have had lots.)
Thursday, my ISP rang to say the line was clear for broadband just as the nice young nerd-for-hire was fixing my pc (which has stayed fixed), so he got it working for me. (Have I mentioned what a good suggestion it was of monstah’s ?)
Then off to mrsbrown and mr_bassman’s place for dinner with them and doushkasmum prior to toddling off to the Stormhold officer’s meeting. Which went longer than I like such things to go, but covered a fair bit of ground, hopefully usefully.
Friday, dinner with monstah and Rohan/Vandel at Antoine & Lara’s place, which was lots of, fairly alcoholic, fun. Crashed at monstah, Rohan/Vandel, Dean & Lucy’s place. Lucy seems to have mostly completed her paintings for the two exhibitions she’s got coming up.
Margi turned up, since she and Rohan/Vandel were going to College War on Saturday. Margi had been to the funeral of one of her 16-year-old students, who had wiped himself out in his Mum's car (taken without permission). Traumatic for Margi, particularly as there were 150 grieving, traumatised students, most of whom had never been inside a church and few if any had ever been to a funeral or coped with death in a serious way.
Then I slept the sleep of the full & alcoholised, getting home just in time to relieve Jennifer of being-home-for-the-duct-cleaning-man so she could go off to croquet.
For a change in tone: After his death, Osama bin Laden went to heaven. There he was greeted by George Washington, who proceeded to slap him across his face and yell at him, "How dare you try to destroy the nation I helped conceive!"
Patrick Henry appoached and punched Osama in the nose and shouted, "You wanted to end our liberties but you failed."
James Madison entered, kicked Osama in the groin and said, "This is why I allowed our government to provide for the common defense!"
Thomas Jefferson came in and proceeded to beat Osama many times with a long cane and said, "it was evil men like you that provided me the inspiration to pen the Declaration of Independence!"
These beatings and thrashings continued as John Rudolph, James Monroe and 66 other early Americans came in and unleashed their anger on the Muslim terrorist leader.
As Osama lay bleeding and writhing in unbearable pain, an Angel appeared. Bin Laden wept and said to the Angel, "This is not what you promised me!"
The Angel replied, "I told you there would be 72 Virginians waiting for you in heaven. What did you think I said?"
It’s wrong, just so wrong, I tell you
Will say that tax-and-spend really doesn’t work for Coalition governments. If you feed in the Budget projections, assume an election in November or later (i.e. late enough for 2004/05 effects to count), the result which best preserves the correlations for Coalition incumbents is a 2.6%pt swing against the Government. Which, by my electoral pendulum calculations, would give the ALP an 8-seat majority.
You heard it here first folks.
(Of course, there is no particular reason why the correlations should be preserved. On the other hand, it does, based on the 7 elections faced by Coalition incumbents from 1969, indicate the electoral tendencies of the Howard Government’s tax-and-spend policies. And for my non-Australian readers, a good summary of the Australian electoral system. One that can even tell the difference between gerrymandering, of which Australia has had little, and malapportionment, of which we have had lots.)
Thursday, my ISP rang to say the line was clear for broadband just as the nice young nerd-for-hire was fixing my pc (which has stayed fixed), so he got it working for me. (Have I mentioned what a good suggestion it was of monstah’s ?)
Then off to mrsbrown and mr_bassman’s place for dinner with them and doushkasmum prior to toddling off to the Stormhold officer’s meeting. Which went longer than I like such things to go, but covered a fair bit of ground, hopefully usefully.
Friday, dinner with monstah and Rohan/Vandel at Antoine & Lara’s place, which was lots of, fairly alcoholic, fun. Crashed at monstah, Rohan/Vandel, Dean & Lucy’s place. Lucy seems to have mostly completed her paintings for the two exhibitions she’s got coming up.
Margi turned up, since she and Rohan/Vandel were going to College War on Saturday. Margi had been to the funeral of one of her 16-year-old students, who had wiped himself out in his Mum's car (taken without permission). Traumatic for Margi, particularly as there were 150 grieving, traumatised students, most of whom had never been inside a church and few if any had ever been to a funeral or coped with death in a serious way.
Then I slept the sleep of the full & alcoholised, getting home just in time to relieve Jennifer of being-home-for-the-duct-cleaning-man so she could go off to croquet.
For a change in tone: After his death, Osama bin Laden went to heaven. There he was greeted by George Washington, who proceeded to slap him across his face and yell at him, "How dare you try to destroy the nation I helped conceive!"
Patrick Henry appoached and punched Osama in the nose and shouted, "You wanted to end our liberties but you failed."
James Madison entered, kicked Osama in the groin and said, "This is why I allowed our government to provide for the common defense!"
Thomas Jefferson came in and proceeded to beat Osama many times with a long cane and said, "it was evil men like you that provided me the inspiration to pen the Declaration of Independence!"
These beatings and thrashings continued as John Rudolph, James Monroe and 66 other early Americans came in and unleashed their anger on the Muslim terrorist leader.
As Osama lay bleeding and writhing in unbearable pain, an Angel appeared. Bin Laden wept and said to the Angel, "This is not what you promised me!"
The Angel replied, "I told you there would be 72 Virginians waiting for you in heaven. What did you think I said?"
It’s wrong, just so wrong, I tell you