More futurism.

[ernunnos]

From Time circa 1978. The Computer Society: Pushbutton Power. It's interesting to see what they got right, and what they got wrong. And when they got it wrong, how.

The computer revolution may make us wiser, healthier and even happier.

It is 7:30 a.m. As the alarm clock burrs, the bedroom curtains swing silently apart, the Venetian blinds snap up and the thermostat boosts the heat to a cozy 70. The percolator in the kitchen starts burbling; the back door opens to let out the dog. The TV set blinks on with the day’s first newscast: not your Today show humph-humph, but a selective rundown (ordered up the night before) of all the latest worldwide events affecting the economy-legislative, political, monetary. After the news on TV comes the morning mail, from correspondents who have dictated their messages into the computer network. The latter-day Aladdin, still snugly abed, then presses a button on a bedside box and issues a string of business and personal memos, which appear instantly on the genie screen. After his shower, which has turned itself on at exactly the right temperature at the right minute, Mr. A. is alerted by a buzzer and a blue light on the screen. His boss, the company president, is on his way to the office. A. dresses and saunters out to the car. The engine, of course, is running…

After her husband has kissed her goodbye, Alice A. concentrates on the screen for a read-out of comparative prices at the local merchants’ and markets. Following eyeball-to-eyeball consultations with the butcher and the baker and the grocer on the tube, she hits a button to commandeer supplies for tonight’s dinner party. Pressing a couple of keys on the kitchen terminal, she orders from the memory bank her favorite recipes for oysters Rockefeller, boeuf a la bourguignonne and chocolate souffle, tells the machine to compute the ingredients for six servings, and directs the ovens to reach the correct temperature for each dish according to the recipe, starting at 7:15 p.m. Alice then joins a televised discussion of Byzantine art (which she has studied by computer). Later she wanders into the computer room where Al (”Laddy”) Jr. has just learned from his headset that his drill in Latin verb conjugation was “groovy.”

Let's see...

• Despite the availability of clock radios, CD player alarms, and even Jeeves alarm clocks, a lot of alarms still beep annoyingly. +1.
• Automated curtains and blinds? Only rare geeks who make home automation a hobby. -1.
• It's called a doggie door. And most people still let the dog out themselves. -1.
• Programmable thermostats. Very common. +1.
• Programmable coffee makers. I used mine this morning. +1 But nobody uses a percolator anymore. -½. Technology is as much about quality as convenience.
• Selected TV programming gathered automatically. I think most people still turn on CNN headline news for a rundown, it's easier than assembling your own, but that's close enough to Tivo that I'll give it to them. +1. The news equivalent would be the RSS reader on your computer.
• The morning mail is typed, not dictated, but yeah, get up, get a cup of coffee, and read your email. +1.
• People do get out of bed though. I suppose you wouldn't have to with a laptop. But most of us aren't quite that slothful. -½.
• Automated showers? Finding the temperature sweet spot is still a favorite routine for comedians. But it just sounds like a plumbing nightmare waiting to happen, doesn't it? -1.
• Message from the boss first thing in the morning? Depressingly true for anyone who has a Blackberry. +1.
• Remote-start cars. Sure, for people in cold climates with lots of money. Otherwise probably not. +½.
• Wife staying home -1.
• Automated grocery shopping, recipe management, and cooking. -3. Futurists seem to miss economies of scale. Gathering materials and setting the oven isn't the toughest part of cooking, and it's easier and cheaper to just go out to a restaurant than to install a bunch of automation in the home.
• Internet discussion groups? Yeah, but probably not on Byzantine art. More like "What those wacky folks from '78 thought about the future." Technology rarely elevates taste. 0.
• Latin? We do have language software, but kids still don't enjoy schoolwork. -1.

People aren't as opposed to physical activity as the futurists seem to think. Getting out of bed and letting the dog out isn't a massive chore, it's part of a healthy routine. Servos are only adopted slowly and even when they're available, they're selectively used. We don't always set up our coffee maker the night before. And they miss the larger shifts-like two-income households, and families eating out on a regular basis-and tend to predict the same lifestyle with more gadgets.

What I draw from this is that to be accurate, a futurist really has to be an economist, able to do the cost-benefit analysis of every day activities. Not just the monetary cost, but also the cost of complexity. Sometimes the benefits of not having to worry about another gadget failing is worth the cost of doing it yourself.