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CBSNews.com:Libertarian could cost Bush the election
WASHINGTON, DC -- The Libertarian presidential candidate who will be nominated in Atlanta on Sunday may have a bigger impact on the race than Ralph Nader and "could cost Mr. Bush his job in 2004," according to an analysis by David Paul Kuhn, chief political writer for CBSNews.com.
The May 21 article, headlined "Bush’s Third-Party Threat," says many conservatives are so upset with Republican spending increases that they may abandon Bush in November. If that happens, the Libertarian nominee "may do for Democrats in 2004 what Nader did for Republicans in 2000" and cost Bush the election, Kuhn says.
To gauge the Libertarian impact in 2004, Kuhn analyzes voting patterns in swing states and concludes that Libertarian candidates have already cost the GOP several gubernatorial and U.S. Senate seats. Among them:
* In the 2002 Wisconsin gubernatorial race, Libertarian Ed Thompson earned "a startling" 185,455 votes, he notes, while Democrat Jim Doyle won the state by about 75,000 votes.
* In the 2002 Oregon gubernatorial race, Libertarian Tom Cox garnered 57,760 votes to help Democrat Ted Kulongoski edge out Republican Kevin Mannix by just 35,000 votes.
* In the 1998 Nevada U.S. Senate contest, Libertarian Michael Cloud won 8,129 votes while Democrat Harry Reid beat Republican John Ensign by 401 votes.
Echoing the lesson learned in the 2000 Bush-Gore presidential race, Kuhn notes, "it only takes one state to change the course of the nation."
According to one expert quoted in the article, Lawrence Jacobs of the 2004 Elections Project for the Humphrey Institute, "The Libertarians will impact Republicans more than Nader will impact Democrats."
Nader's support may be more equally distributed between the right and left this year than in 2000, analysts say, because of his endorsement by the Reform Party and because of his efforts to work with presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry to curtail his activity in swing states.
Libertarians, however, are expected to bring in mostly conservative votes, Kuhn notes.
"While Democrats fret over the possibility of Ralph Nader causing them to lose another election by stealing votes on the left, President Bush may face an even greater third-party threat from the right wing," he writes. "The Libertarian nominee could cost Mr. Bush his job in 2004."
However, Libertarian Party Executive Director Joe Seehusen points out that Libertarian candidates typically draw votes from independent and Democratic voters as well as from Republicans.
"Could the Libertarian nominee play a role in costing a big-government advocate like George Bush his job?" he asks. "Let's hope so.
"But let's keep in mind that it's not just Republicans who have sold out their own voters. Democrats have betrayed Americans who believe in peace and civil liberties by supporting the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act.
"So we can't be certain whether we'll attract more votes from disgruntled Republican voters or disillusioned Democrats. But we do know that Americans who want the government out of their bedroom, out of their boardroom, out of their wallet and out of Iraq are going to have a Libertarian on the ballot in November. And we'll be choosing that candidate in Atlanta this weekend."
The Libertarian National Convention will run from Thursday, May 27 to Monday, May 31 at the Atlanta Marriott Marquis Hotel and ballroom. The 800-plus delegates in attendance will also make changes to the party Platform, listen to a wide array of speakers and entertainers and elect a national chair.
from here
WASHINGTON, DC -- The Libertarian presidential candidate who will be nominated in Atlanta on Sunday may have a bigger impact on the race than Ralph Nader and "could cost Mr. Bush his job in 2004," according to an analysis by David Paul Kuhn, chief political writer for CBSNews.com.
The May 21 article, headlined "Bush’s Third-Party Threat," says many conservatives are so upset with Republican spending increases that they may abandon Bush in November. If that happens, the Libertarian nominee "may do for Democrats in 2004 what Nader did for Republicans in 2000" and cost Bush the election, Kuhn says.
To gauge the Libertarian impact in 2004, Kuhn analyzes voting patterns in swing states and concludes that Libertarian candidates have already cost the GOP several gubernatorial and U.S. Senate seats. Among them:
* In the 2002 Wisconsin gubernatorial race, Libertarian Ed Thompson earned "a startling" 185,455 votes, he notes, while Democrat Jim Doyle won the state by about 75,000 votes.
* In the 2002 Oregon gubernatorial race, Libertarian Tom Cox garnered 57,760 votes to help Democrat Ted Kulongoski edge out Republican Kevin Mannix by just 35,000 votes.
* In the 1998 Nevada U.S. Senate contest, Libertarian Michael Cloud won 8,129 votes while Democrat Harry Reid beat Republican John Ensign by 401 votes.
Echoing the lesson learned in the 2000 Bush-Gore presidential race, Kuhn notes, "it only takes one state to change the course of the nation."
According to one expert quoted in the article, Lawrence Jacobs of the 2004 Elections Project for the Humphrey Institute, "The Libertarians will impact Republicans more than Nader will impact Democrats."
Nader's support may be more equally distributed between the right and left this year than in 2000, analysts say, because of his endorsement by the Reform Party and because of his efforts to work with presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry to curtail his activity in swing states.
Libertarians, however, are expected to bring in mostly conservative votes, Kuhn notes.
"While Democrats fret over the possibility of Ralph Nader causing them to lose another election by stealing votes on the left, President Bush may face an even greater third-party threat from the right wing," he writes. "The Libertarian nominee could cost Mr. Bush his job in 2004."
However, Libertarian Party Executive Director Joe Seehusen points out that Libertarian candidates typically draw votes from independent and Democratic voters as well as from Republicans.
"Could the Libertarian nominee play a role in costing a big-government advocate like George Bush his job?" he asks. "Let's hope so.
"But let's keep in mind that it's not just Republicans who have sold out their own voters. Democrats have betrayed Americans who believe in peace and civil liberties by supporting the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act.
"So we can't be certain whether we'll attract more votes from disgruntled Republican voters or disillusioned Democrats. But we do know that Americans who want the government out of their bedroom, out of their boardroom, out of their wallet and out of Iraq are going to have a Libertarian on the ballot in November. And we'll be choosing that candidate in Atlanta this weekend."
The Libertarian National Convention will run from Thursday, May 27 to Monday, May 31 at the Atlanta Marriott Marquis Hotel and ballroom. The 800-plus delegates in attendance will also make changes to the party Platform, listen to a wide array of speakers and entertainers and elect a national chair.
from here