Taxing mileage
Let's brainstorm on what sort of possible conclusions (negative and positive) could come from this idea.
My theories are below. They are based upon the presumption that this tax won't affect commercial vehicles (especially those carrying cargo, as they are already taxed by weight at weigh stations), ATVs, snowmobiles, dirt bikes, mopeds, and other sorts of non-highway vehicles, but only autos, trucks, and SUVs:
- Initially, there will be little change in the smaller U.S. states from the current driving model. Larger states (like California and Texas), where commutes average between 50-60 miles per day for many workers, will cause drivers there to rethink their driving habits.
- People angry with the new law will try to cheat the system somehow. They will either figure out how to roll-back their odometers, or hack a cheat that allows them to trick the electronic gadgetry installed on their cars, or will start registering their personal vehicles for "commercial use only" (even though that isn't necessarily true).
- Those that either don't have the technical known-how to alter their cars, or who have an innate sense of fairness, or whose fear of getting caught will either drive less (whenever possible) or carpool more frequently instead.
- People will demand the governmental infrastructure (i.e. their Senators, Representatives & Governors) to produce better, more efficient public transportation methods when the carpooling option is either unavailable, or "gets old," or is too inconvenient for personal (unique) time schedules.
- Recreational travel by rail, sea and air will prosper, while driving to vacation destinations will fall substantially.
- Businesses will receive an incentive by government (to avoid having to throw excessive amounts of money at public transportation changes) for better tax write-offs if they provide transportation for their employees.
- In the end, the tax will probably change (because of the revenue it will bring in will be less than expected, due to the carpoolers, public transportation users, or cheaters). Th new law will include taxing total mileage (over the life of the vehicle), to bring in more revenue. This is a model that the Japanese currently have in place, by the way. That will cause a "reverse consumerism" from the current vehicle ownership model in America; instead of holding onto cars for years, we will begin ditching cars when they reach 50K miles (or wherever the cut-off is for a huge tax jump from one bracket to the next) and buy a new one more frequently. That will cause an increase in auto manufacturing to keep up with the new demand, imports of foreign vehicles will increase (thus increasing the trade deficit), and as a result, a larger problem of excess resources piling up in our landfills (that is, until some smart entrepeneur comes up with a way to recycle 100% of an old car's parts).
- Overall, this plan may address our gasoline addiction (thus our CO2 and sulfur production), but only if people decide to drive less as a result. However, I think that is too optimistic an ideal. People like their comforts and the economic status that they achieve from vehicle ownership, and driving is considered freedom. As the gasoline hike of 2008 showed us, the rich really aren't all that bothered by a marginal increase in taxes, so they will continue to enjoy driving. It's the poor and middle class that will suffer the most.
My theories are below. They are based upon the presumption that this tax won't affect commercial vehicles (especially those carrying cargo, as they are already taxed by weight at weigh stations), ATVs, snowmobiles, dirt bikes, mopeds, and other sorts of non-highway vehicles, but only autos, trucks, and SUVs:
- Initially, there will be little change in the smaller U.S. states from the current driving model. Larger states (like California and Texas), where commutes average between 50-60 miles per day for many workers, will cause drivers there to rethink their driving habits.
- People angry with the new law will try to cheat the system somehow. They will either figure out how to roll-back their odometers, or hack a cheat that allows them to trick the electronic gadgetry installed on their cars, or will start registering their personal vehicles for "commercial use only" (even though that isn't necessarily true).
- Those that either don't have the technical known-how to alter their cars, or who have an innate sense of fairness, or whose fear of getting caught will either drive less (whenever possible) or carpool more frequently instead.
- People will demand the governmental infrastructure (i.e. their Senators, Representatives & Governors) to produce better, more efficient public transportation methods when the carpooling option is either unavailable, or "gets old," or is too inconvenient for personal (unique) time schedules.
- Recreational travel by rail, sea and air will prosper, while driving to vacation destinations will fall substantially.
- Businesses will receive an incentive by government (to avoid having to throw excessive amounts of money at public transportation changes) for better tax write-offs if they provide transportation for their employees.
- In the end, the tax will probably change (because of the revenue it will bring in will be less than expected, due to the carpoolers, public transportation users, or cheaters). Th new law will include taxing total mileage (over the life of the vehicle), to bring in more revenue. This is a model that the Japanese currently have in place, by the way. That will cause a "reverse consumerism" from the current vehicle ownership model in America; instead of holding onto cars for years, we will begin ditching cars when they reach 50K miles (or wherever the cut-off is for a huge tax jump from one bracket to the next) and buy a new one more frequently. That will cause an increase in auto manufacturing to keep up with the new demand, imports of foreign vehicles will increase (thus increasing the trade deficit), and as a result, a larger problem of excess resources piling up in our landfills (that is, until some smart entrepeneur comes up with a way to recycle 100% of an old car's parts).
- Overall, this plan may address our gasoline addiction (thus our CO2 and sulfur production), but only if people decide to drive less as a result. However, I think that is too optimistic an ideal. People like their comforts and the economic status that they achieve from vehicle ownership, and driving is considered freedom. As the gasoline hike of 2008 showed us, the rich really aren't all that bothered by a marginal increase in taxes, so they will continue to enjoy driving. It's the poor and middle class that will suffer the most.