After I posted about my new realization about Felix last night, I realized I forgot to address a fairly important factor in the resulting theory, so I guess tonight that's what I'll be writing about.
To recap, yesterday's post was about how Felix has a replica of the Adrien camo version of the black cat Miraculous, and since he's got such sticky fingers, it's entirely plausible that he could steal the real Miraculous and replace it with his fake one. The thing I forgot to talk about was motive. I mean, obviously the motive would be that he wants the black cat Miraculous, but he would only try to take Adrien's ring if he suspected there was something...miraculous...about it. I've just been kind of assuming for a while now that Felix has figured out that Adrien is living a double life.
Of course, the show hasn't really indicated that Felix knows, but it has shown times where Felix could have gleaned some clues about it. The main one, of course, is everything that happened in Emotion. I really think that Felix is too smart for that to have been his one and only plan to get...whatever it is he's after. It seems much more likely that the whole Red Moon thing was laying groundwork for his real master plan, and part of that groundwork would be investigating the secret identities of Ladybug and Chat Noir.
I think I addressed the Ladybug part of this in a different post, so let's talk about how it would have helped him identify Chat Noir. He told Ladybug that they were going to wait for Chat Noir to show up so he could get both their Miraculouses, but Chat Noir never appeared. ...Of course, Argos had already snapped most of Paris out of existence by then, which kind of makes it odd that he would be so confident that he hadn't already gotten Chat Noir. Based on his reaction to Kagami's ring, it's possible he thought she was Chat Noir, but in Pretension, he indicates that he knew there was something else special about Kagami's ring (because why would he steal it after Emotion when he already knew it wasn't the black cat Miraculous?).
So really, because most of Paris was already incapacitated, Chat Noir's failure to appear in the fight against Argos wouldn't have proven anything...which means we don't really have any solid evidence that Felix knows anything about Chat Noir's secret identity. It's all circumstantial.
First, he knows that Adrien has a crush on Ladybug. But Adrien doesn't have to be a superhero for that to happen. We also know that Felix is pretty good at reading Adrien--he was one of exactly three people who knew that Adrien didn't want to go on his world tour with Lila. And we know that Felix and Adrien traded places at least once, which probably wouldn't have happened without some sort of mutually beneficial agreement on their part. That indicates that either Adrien is in fact that much of a pushover (which is possible), or Felix is aware of Adrien's suppressed fun-loving side. If the latter, that might give Felix a reason to suspect that Adrien is Chat Noir, especially because if Adrien ever behaved like Chat Noir as Adrien, he certainly would have done it while hanging out with his cousin as kids. So if anyone has the ability to watch Ladyblog videos of Chat Noir and think, "That reminds me of someone I know..." it would be Felix.
We also know that Felix is kind of obsessed with magic jewelry, so it seems likely that he, like Gabriel, would have noticed Adrien's ring and thought, "Wait a minute..."
It's not really a lot to go on, but Felix didn't really have much to go on when he suspected Gabriel of being Shadow Moth, and he was right about that, too.
Today I'm thankful for work going okay, finally having some Otter Pops in the freezer, the weather not getting too hot, Toby showing up in the second episode of 3Below, and only one more week before we get new Umbrella Academy.