My prediction. McCain will win the popular vote but will LOSE the electoral vote so Obama becomes President.
Simple calculation. It takes 270 electoral votes to win. The vast majority of states are solidly one way or the other. The number of electoral votes from solidly Dem states and solidly Republican states gives each party about 50 electoral votes, a little bit more, a little bit less, to get to 270. Obama must win all the states John Kerry won in 2004 plus some combination of the following, or lose NH and/or MI (only states Kerry won that are toss ups and not solidly Dem for sure in the fall):
(1) Kerry States + IA (leans Dem), NM (leans Dem), and CO (leans Dem)
(2) Kerry States + IA (leans Dem), NM (leans Dem), and MO (toss up).
(3) Kerry States + IA, NM, and OH (toss up)
(4) Kerry States + IA, NM, NV (toss up), and MT (toss up, but probably will go Rep.)
(5) Kerry States + IA, NM, and VA (toss up, for first time since 1964 when it last went Dem...demographic changes here make Dem viable for first time in 44 years)
(6) Kerry States + IA, NM, and NC (leans Rep.)
And there are several other combinations but these are the most likely. McCain should win FL. McCain will probably lose MI, despite it being close now the trend over the last few polls has been that McCain keeps sinking and Obama keeps rising. McCain will probably win NH. However, Obama will almost certainly win IA and probably CO and NM, while McCain should take NV. This would put the electoral vote at 269 to 269, so that the US House of Representatives, where the Dems control a majority of state delegations, would chose the President with each state's delegation of representatives having one vote for that state (majority of Congressmen in state delegation decide for whom state casts vote). So Obama would win.
More likely, Obama will also tip at least one of the other swing states in play...MO, OH, VA, or less likely NV or NH and any one would put him over 271 and make him President.
My guess though is that McCain will rack up large margins in the Republican states while Obama will win by small margins in the Democratic states so McCain gets a majority of the popular vote but still loses the election.
Result, we get a President Obama who lacks a real mandate.
Simple calculation. It takes 270 electoral votes to win. The vast majority of states are solidly one way or the other. The number of electoral votes from solidly Dem states and solidly Republican states gives each party about 50 electoral votes, a little bit more, a little bit less, to get to 270. Obama must win all the states John Kerry won in 2004 plus some combination of the following, or lose NH and/or MI (only states Kerry won that are toss ups and not solidly Dem for sure in the fall):
(1) Kerry States + IA (leans Dem), NM (leans Dem), and CO (leans Dem)
(2) Kerry States + IA (leans Dem), NM (leans Dem), and MO (toss up).
(3) Kerry States + IA, NM, and OH (toss up)
(4) Kerry States + IA, NM, NV (toss up), and MT (toss up, but probably will go Rep.)
(5) Kerry States + IA, NM, and VA (toss up, for first time since 1964 when it last went Dem...demographic changes here make Dem viable for first time in 44 years)
(6) Kerry States + IA, NM, and NC (leans Rep.)
And there are several other combinations but these are the most likely. McCain should win FL. McCain will probably lose MI, despite it being close now the trend over the last few polls has been that McCain keeps sinking and Obama keeps rising. McCain will probably win NH. However, Obama will almost certainly win IA and probably CO and NM, while McCain should take NV. This would put the electoral vote at 269 to 269, so that the US House of Representatives, where the Dems control a majority of state delegations, would chose the President with each state's delegation of representatives having one vote for that state (majority of Congressmen in state delegation decide for whom state casts vote). So Obama would win.
More likely, Obama will also tip at least one of the other swing states in play...MO, OH, VA, or less likely NV or NH and any one would put him over 271 and make him President.
My guess though is that McCain will rack up large margins in the Republican states while Obama will win by small margins in the Democratic states so McCain gets a majority of the popular vote but still loses the election.
Result, we get a President Obama who lacks a real mandate.
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