Presidential election update
As of this morning, Election Day in the U.S., it remains a tight election, but the advantage has shifted more decisively to Kerry.
Kerry leads Bush among states leaning one way or the other, 238-227, with six toss-up states having 73 electoral votes. Projecting those six states based on the latest polling data, the two candidates are set to tie, 269-269. This projection means relatively little, however, and Bush's electoral math is becoming more difficult.
The six toss-up states are Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If Bush is on track to win tonight, expect him to win the following states, starting with the likeliest wins: Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Iowa. This would be enough for him to tie, and a win in Florida would seal a victory, as would losing Florida but winning a less likely state, such as Hawaii or Pennsylvania or Minnesota.
However, while Bush has a good chance of winning Ohio, he looks less likely to pull off wins in Wisconsin and New Mexico, and even less likely to win the remaining states needed to be elected. If Kerry starts picking off any of these states as the returns come in, a Bush victory becomes unlikely. On the other hand, if Bush scores wins among one or more of his less likely states, he is more certain to be on track for victory.
Kerry leads Bush among states leaning one way or the other, 238-227, with six toss-up states having 73 electoral votes. Projecting those six states based on the latest polling data, the two candidates are set to tie, 269-269. This projection means relatively little, however, and Bush's electoral math is becoming more difficult.
The six toss-up states are Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If Bush is on track to win tonight, expect him to win the following states, starting with the likeliest wins: Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Iowa. This would be enough for him to tie, and a win in Florida would seal a victory, as would losing Florida but winning a less likely state, such as Hawaii or Pennsylvania or Minnesota.
However, while Bush has a good chance of winning Ohio, he looks less likely to pull off wins in Wisconsin and New Mexico, and even less likely to win the remaining states needed to be elected. If Kerry starts picking off any of these states as the returns come in, a Bush victory becomes unlikely. On the other hand, if Bush scores wins among one or more of his less likely states, he is more certain to be on track for victory.