Latest presidential election numbers
The presidential race just gets more and more interesting.
As of the latest polls this morning, Kerry is experiencing a modest surge in a couple of key states, which gives him a slight edge in the electoral college going into tomorrow. However, Bush's states remain much more solid than Kerry's.
The combination means that Bush now needs to score more wins among the remaining five toss-up states, or upsets in states leaning one way or the other, than Kerry does. But Bush would also have an easier time doing this than Kerry, assuming things break his way and not Kerry's on election day.
The bottom line remains, though, that this is another extraordinarily close election, at least given the limits on what can be predicted with polls. We know exactly which few states to watch on election night, but those states are too close to call with any certainty and the polling methodologies suggest there will be upsets.
And, unless there is a significant shift towards one candidate or the other, there should be substantial legal challenges in multiple states this year.
For those interested in the numbers, as of this morning, Kerry leads Bush by 242-227 among states clearly leaning one way or the other, with 69 truly undecided electoral votes in five states. Projecting those five states, based on analysis of all available polls in each state, would give Kerry the win, 299-239, but this is a pointless calculation.
For those who are curious, there are possible tie scenarios, and combinations of those five toss-ups which would throw the election to New Hampshire or Hawaii.
As of the latest polls this morning, Kerry is experiencing a modest surge in a couple of key states, which gives him a slight edge in the electoral college going into tomorrow. However, Bush's states remain much more solid than Kerry's.
The combination means that Bush now needs to score more wins among the remaining five toss-up states, or upsets in states leaning one way or the other, than Kerry does. But Bush would also have an easier time doing this than Kerry, assuming things break his way and not Kerry's on election day.
The bottom line remains, though, that this is another extraordinarily close election, at least given the limits on what can be predicted with polls. We know exactly which few states to watch on election night, but those states are too close to call with any certainty and the polling methodologies suggest there will be upsets.
And, unless there is a significant shift towards one candidate or the other, there should be substantial legal challenges in multiple states this year.
For those interested in the numbers, as of this morning, Kerry leads Bush by 242-227 among states clearly leaning one way or the other, with 69 truly undecided electoral votes in five states. Projecting those five states, based on analysis of all available polls in each state, would give Kerry the win, 299-239, but this is a pointless calculation.
For those who are curious, there are possible tie scenarios, and combinations of those five toss-ups which would throw the election to New Hampshire or Hawaii.