(5) Speculations I

Mar 11, 2011 15:42

[Phone, standard filter: Sasaki, having returned from Westport in a contemplative mood, has decided to air a few of her speculations.]

cut for tl;dr speculation )

red sniper, lithuania, tavros nitram, patchouli knowledge, garviel loken, yuki nagato, !: speculations, wilhelm

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 01:47:30 UTC
Hmm, I don't know if any of the three options I presented are likely, truthfully. They have a certain amount of evidence, in fact, but I have the suspicion that a few other hypotheses-- stranger and more complicated ones-- may be closer to the truth. As a rule, of course, Occam's Razor suggests that we should accept a simple explanation over a complicated one, if they cover the same facts, and the complexity of the situation means that no explanation can cover all the factors.

However, it also suggests that--well, a complicated situation is likely to have a complicated explanation.

As for the experimental condition, it seems to me that there are a number of problems that are solved most quickly by a society placed under pressure. Consider the situation of underground literature in Communist countries, for example. They quickly developed networks of interpersonal relations that would not necessarily have developed in a free society, precisely because people with a common goal of overthrowing the authorities, but no other commonalities--from criminals to intellectuals--were forced to engage in cultural exchange.

Something of the same sort might be the intention here. I could propose a more specific example, perhaps.

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repeatsalvation March 12 2011, 02:11:32 UTC
Ah. But therein also lies the fallacy that permeates Occam's Razor. While it can often be a useful tool, it makes the assumption that the simple answer will, in general, be the correct one. The problem with this is that simplicity is honestly rarely applied by people in their motives. Many are, yes, but often times it fails to take into effect the fact that people may make things even more complex and difficult for themselves then need be. And the likelihood of any answer is, at the moment, I would say near equal since we still know so little despite having much evidence.

Very true. However, in this case they're sabotaging part of it do to the way they punish. Not that they merely come off too strong, but in dealing with primarily human consciouses and minds, they risk causing these minds and consciouses to break. Pressure is an excellent tool to apply to force change and activity. However, there has to be limits to it, and they clearly cross any acceptable limit, not just in an ethical standard, but in any that could produce worthwhile results.

I believe I catch the gist of it, but if you wish to provide an example, I would hardly stop you.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 02:24:45 UTC
Yes... precisely. Occam's Razor is a tool that's meant to apply to abstract ideas and philosophical concepts, not those things devised with the intricacies of the human mind. Mayfield appears to be a mixture of both, but I would still not apply the principle without caution.

I would not, however, say the theories are equally likely. Some fit the facts better than the others. We can't judge likelihood, really, in such a case; only confidence, based on the number of facts fit and the ad hoc nature of the justifications we have to make within the theory.

As for your point about pressure... I'd point out that they seem to be capable of removing people and bringing them back without their memories of this place. I observed that Miss Theta Buckley, for example, recently had her memories of Mayfield and those only removed. In other words, they have the ability to fix mistakes of that nature.

The "example" would be that they are facing a similar existential problem as ours and wish to simulate ways to solve it. Namely, perhaps they have discovered a race of beings whose capabilities are as much higher than their own, than theirs are compared to, say, mine.

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repeatsalvation March 12 2011, 02:40:22 UTC
Like every tool, it should be used with care, precision, and skill.

True. And while not all may be equal, the fact remains that with such insufficient data, we still cannot necessarily decide on any specific theory with total confidence at the present time. Or any full sense of confidence, for that matter. Which makes it agitating and yet quite entertaining at the same time.

[A pause at that. And when he speaks again, his voice is a little more somber. He didn't know that had happened to Theta. He hadn't thought to even check his connection to Theta's unconscious. Dammit.]

I did indeed know that. I had not, however, began to think of correlating that possibility. I have, it seems, been easily coerced into discarding the theory of this being an experiment after being here so long.

Mmm. Possible. And doing so would make quite a bit of sense. However, the problem this presents that they themselves seem quite human and, if they are not, our captors are experts at blending in to human characteristics and attitudes. If they really are something separate from the majority of humans here and something higher then them and using our actions as a base to decide their next step in their own struggle, I'm somewhat surprised they adapt so well. To be human is harder then one would think.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 03:08:36 UTC
Yes. Well, I admit that there's no certainty in the matter.

It doesn't pay to throw away ideas prematurely, of course.

Yes, it's just an idea... Interesting. Forgive me for the question, but are you entirely human?

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repeatsalvation March 12 2011, 03:24:21 UTC
I am not.

Yet, there is part of that which is human within me.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 03:39:57 UTC
That sounds like a riddle.

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repeatsalvation March 12 2011, 17:47:44 UTC
And recognizing that means you're already part-way to answering it.

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cramschoolgod March 12 2011, 20:16:51 UTC
"That which is human". That sounds collective, as if you mean part of humanity in general. Or perhaps part of 'the human condition', if we believe in the existence of such a thing.

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repeatsalvation March 13 2011, 22:07:12 UTC
There is more truth in saying that the first part of that echoes my being, and the second part what I guide.

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cramschoolgod March 13 2011, 22:09:56 UTC
You suggest that you are a collective spirit of some kind, and that you guide this collection of humans down a path.

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repeatsalvation March 13 2011, 23:52:12 UTC
Mmm. I prefer the term "conscious" to "spirit". Are you familiar with Carl Jung?

Guide is correct. Sometimes I point. Sometimes I push. But each time I guide.

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cramschoolgod March 13 2011, 23:54:09 UTC
Indeed. You're implying, then, that you're a manifestation of a collective unconscious? Or perhaps some individual archetype within the conscious...

I see.

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repeatsalvation March 13 2011, 23:56:48 UTC
Indeed. I do not imply it, however, but inform you of it. I'm less an archtype and more its will in total.

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cramschoolgod March 13 2011, 23:57:52 UTC
I see.

Jungian psychology is not considered particularly ... scientifically reputable.

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repeatsalvation March 14 2011, 00:00:04 UTC
Correct, it is not.

Like Occam's Razor, skepticism and constraint to scientific thought is admirable, and a wonderful tool. But it limits itself not in attempting to necessarily deny the fantastic, but to define what the fantastic is.

For as fantastic as my claim is, I am still nothing but a natural part of what lies within the realm of reality, and not that which denies its standards.

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