(no subject)
.
We are trying to get used to mouthing "Prime Minister Harper" in preparation for the Liberal Party doomsday next Tuesday morning. Yes, on Monday, we Canadians snow-shoe to the election polls to elect a new government. It looks like the New Conservatives under Harper are assured of at least a minority government - with a good shot at a majority. The fact is that the Liberals badly need to be turfed out - after 12 years in power and the gathering barnacles on the ship of state.
In the past, there was always the Progressive Conservative party to fall back on for the required 'housecleaning', but it's more complicated these days, because the PC's died after the Campbell/Mulroney government's route in 1993. The rump of the PC's re-emerged as the "New Conservatives", a more right-wing version of their predecessors, and Canadians are wary of the socially conservative ideas in Western Canada. But, our second biggest province, Québec, is really out of play these days - with the separatist Bloc Québecois party wiping out most Liberal MP's in the province. Hence a Conservative victory is assured, methinks. The best summary of all this was in a forcemajeure comment to me a week ago. Kieran, as usual, captured the political wind in his homecountry with his usual insight and clarity - as follows: -
... "And let me be the first to predict that not only will we have Prime Minister Harper, but he'll have a majority government. The polls tell the whole story at this point. The whole Liberal strategy depended on fearful NDP voters switching to the Liberals at the last minute, but I think soft Liberal voters are capitulating, which is why the Liberals can't even keep their heads above 30%. It's far from clear that the Liberals will even sit as the official opposition.
It seems pretty clear Harper will break 40%, and it's hard to construct a mathematical scenario in which 40% is insufficient for a Conservative majority, unless you assume all of that surge is coming from Francophone Québec, or you assume that the NDP vote collapses into the single digits.
I hope we do get a solid Tory majority, because I think we need a Tory government to establish that we aren't some third-world country where the party in power always wins no matter what misdeeds they commit, but more importantly because I don't want the BQ to have any influence or leverage. Harper has hinted at a Conservative-NDP minority government but, uh, I don't think that's happening -- if Paul Martin can't keep Jack Layton happy, no one can -- and I don't want the BQ having the balance of power. So a clear-cut majority of either the Liberals or the Conservatives would be preferable to any other outcome, in my view.
I'm a Harper optimist. I think he's got a shot at being a good PM, and I've warmed up to the guy over time, even though I'd prefer someone more like Bernard Lord. And isn't it cool that for once a western Anglophone party leader promises to improve his French and actually does it?
The time in the wilderness will be healthy for the Liberals. It's an opportunity to clear out a lot of accumulated baggage from the Chrétien era and to formulate some kind of program that consists of something more than scaring people half to death about the opposition, and offering up goodies at election time like a Carnival krewe during Mardi Gras. The Liberals need a Tony Blair, and some time on the opposition benches to contemplate the idea that the federal government is not a wholly owned subsidiary of the Parti libéral du Canada.
One argues with Kieran at one's peril - but he's really a "closet Liberal", as wary as I am about the oil-drenched Christians from Alberta and some of their social-conservative ideas. Mr. Bush, however, will be delighted with the demise of Paul Martin. With a few caveats, I have to agree that it's time for a housecleaning.
On the other hand - maybe we should cede Canada to Québec and remove the separatist threat - as expressed in a rude note that I sent to a friend in Montréal last week ...
De la mer, vers la mer... vers la mer ... "l'état du Québec" (from sea to sea, to sea)
I enjoyed the recent Globe & Mail's editorial - admitting it's time for a change.
Martin was a fine Minister of Finance, but he's a hopeless 'politician'. Time for a change - in the 'Canadian way' ... I just hope that the Liberals don't do a "Mulroney Meltdown" - then there would be NO strong party in the country - maybe Le Bloc Québecois could take over the whole damn country - and re-name it "l'état nouvel du Québec".
From Sea to Sea to Sea ... Québec! ....
We could re-name the provinces comme ca:-
BC would become "Franco-Columbie" - or Mabe "Colombie-Chinoise"
Ontario - "Sacrées têtes carrées"
NB - "Nouveau Lyons"
NS - "Merde de l'Ecosse"
PEI - "Isle DeGaulle"
Man/Sask - "Les Champs fait Rien"
Alberta - "Place d'Huile" - or "Gisements de pétrole"
...and Newfoundland - just give it to St. Pierre et Miquelon, 'sti
Well, enough about our funny little country ....