A brief but important update
A brief but important update.
1. Because people continue to ask, I explain. The situation on the border is currently difficult. Our cargo with food made it in (soon we will distribute it in the DPR), but the medicines are still stuck. Some humanitarian works can't get anything through at all. The question of shipments are now negotiated with the EMERCOM. So, for example, the EMERCOM representative comes in, looks at what kind of cargo this is, if there are no issues, then the cargo is on its way, if there are issues - the cargo may get stuck for a while. The OSCE and the Ukrainian border guards are not there and don't influence the humanitarian flows in any way. Not even speaking about the voentorg, which continues to work just like it did.
2. The "gloomy" has indeed returned to Russia. As for as I know, he departed due to some internal Donetsk plots. Whether he will come back in the nearest time or not - I don't know yet. As a seasoned recon officer, general Petrovsky prefers to stay away from publicity, so typically people learn about his movements after the fact.
3. According to the messages from local residents, the AFU yesterday started to dismantle and today continue to dismantle strategic objects in the village of Zaytsevo, Artyomovsk district such as the flight control center (popularly called "the ball") and the tower on a high point. Previously, during the Great Patriotic War, this tower was used for observing enemy movements on the road Artyomovsk-Gorlovka and Kodemo-Zaytsevo, where there is also an outlet to Gorlovka. They are dismantling under the pretext "Not letting the militia have it". The presumed NAF strike on Artyomovsk and Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration still remains the reason for a head-ache of the Ukrainian commanders, so along with the concentration of reserves they prepare for the possibility of a retreat.
4. Blowing up the bridges in the LPR, of which the republican leadership already accused the junta, serves the goals of defensive nature. Fearing a NAF offensive, the junta is purposefully destroying the transport infrastructure of the people's republic, in order to complicate actions of mechanized units and also solve the problem of destroying the Donbass infrastructure in accordance with the long-standing junta line towards created a "scorched earth" zone. If the whole north-Lugansk front is considered, the enemy is preparing for a protracted defense on the line Stanitsa Luganskaya - Schastye - Slavyanoserbsk and only in the area of the Bakhmutka road does the configuration of the AFU group have the offensive nature. Furthermore, the locality here is the most appropriate for the actions of tanks and motorized infantry, which continue to concentrate behind Novotoshkovskoye and Krymskoye.
5. Foreign military aid continues to come to the junta: American military transport aircraft continue to land in the airports of the South-Eastern Ukraine, which provide ammunition, special weapons, gear, rations, etc. The shipment of counter-battery radars is expected in the nearest time (as one of the knowledgeable readers recently wrote, the effectiveness of the American counter-battery radars ended up not very high) and the long-promised armored cars. In the meantime there are ongoing negotiations with respect to intensifying the shipments of old Soviet armor from the countries who were a part of the Warsaw Pact.
6. The junta continues to perform defensive measures directed to preparing for a protracted defense on Perekop. The artillery group there is fairly weak at this time, the majority of howitzer batteries and MLRS, which were removed in January-February and redeployed to the line Mariupol-Granitnoye still remain in Donbass. The combat readiness of the junta military units that defend the border with RF in the area of Perekop and Chongar is evaluated as low. The probability of a military provocation, which the junta prepared during the summer of 2014 is currently not very high. The group of forces of the RF in Crimea has a significant advantage over the opposing junta forces at this time. By the end of March 2015 Russia in essence secured excess military control over Crimea. The redeployment of strategic bombers to Crimea suggests that the course towards strengthening the military potential of Crimea will be continued.
7. The information about the permutations in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the DPR was confirmed. Kononov indeed left his position, but as Basurin says, this is a temporary measure. "Cap" leads now in replacement of "Czar".
Strelkov about the "resignation" of the minister of the defense of the LPR Kononov
Recently on the Internet there was information, about the alleged resignation of the minister of defense of the Donetsk People's Republic Vladimir Kononov. On the evening of March 19 sources in the Ministry of Defense of the DPR said that this information is not true. However, they clarified that Kononov is simply on vacation due to family reasons.
«The minister of defense major-general Vladimir Kononov is currently on vacation due to family circumstances, - the Donetsk News Agency was told by the deputy corps commander of the Ministry of Defense of the DPR Eduard Basurin. - Colonel Sergey Velikorodny was appointed to be the temporary acting minister of defense of the DPR».
Basurin also noted that in the case the situation in the republic escalates Vladimir Kononov will interrupt his vacation ahead of time and will arrive to the location where his duties are performed.
The ex-minister of defense of the DPR Igor Strelkov answered a number of questions on this topic:
A message from the user:
When Strelkov was removed, they also said that he lacks something. As it turned out, compared to those who replaced him, Strelkov is a generalissimo of inter-galactic scale. So I won't be surprised if the puppeteers will replace Kononov with some sort of superintendent.
Strelkov's reply:
Kononov was replaced by "Cap" - when I was there he was the commander of the Semenovsky battalion, later - the commander of the "East group" (headquarters in Snezhnoye). A retired captain of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, professional (graduated from a military school). He performed well in Semenovka, he was one of the first people to receive the rank of major in Donetsk. Later (since Autumn) he commanded a brigade, later he was "Czar"s deputy.
A message from the user:
Can this be viewed as strengthening of the NAF or something else?
Strelkov's reply:
It is hard to comment in this case. But the position of the minister of defense is currently "technical" in many ways - the actual military action is not led by the minister.
A message from the user:
This point is clear.
And in general, are there people in the LDPR who have the qualifications for such a position, at least minimal?
Strelkov's reply:
Now - I don't know. During my being in the Ministry of Defense there were a total of three professional colonels: "Nikolay Strelkov" (he could theoretically take this position), "Bad soldier" (the deputy MoD - the chief of GRU), and our deputy for logistics and administrative issues (but he was already very "senior" - "70+', even though he did a great job, considering the harsh local conditions).
We remind that Vladimir Kononov was appointed to be the acting minister of defense of the Donetsk People's Republic in August 2014. Earlier this position was occupied by Igor Strelkov.
http://voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/11175-strelkov-pro-otstavku-ministra-oborony-dnr-kononova.html (in Russian) - link
Whether Kononov will return from his vacation or if he will be sent for a lengthy "rest" in Russia, like Bezler and Strelkov - we'll see.
Regarding "Cap", I heard different things about him from different commanders and militia fighters, but there were more positive references than otherwise.
A great photo from Savelyevka from February 25. After the sweep of the remains of the Debalcevo cauldron.
http://cassad.net/tv/videos/6341/ (in Russian) - the video-summary from "Cassad-TV" for March 18-19
http://cassad.net/tv/videos/6345/ (in Russian) - a review of the military map from "Cassad-TV" for March 18
http://voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/11165-hronika-voennyh-sobytiy-v-novorossii-za-20032015.html (in Russian) - the online-broadcast on the "Voice of Sevastopol" for March 20
http://cassad.net/category/war/1438-svodka-voennyh-sobytiy-v-novorossii-za-19032015.html (in Russian) - the summary of military events in Novorossia for March 19
Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2098030.html (in Russian)
Yandex translation of the comments posted to the original Russian blog entry:
https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2098030.html%23comments&lang=ru-en