bveale
in
canpolitik
Musings from the outside...
Just got done watching the big CBC election special before your big day tomorrow and, if you friendly folks don't mind, weigh in a little. I'd like to believe that I've acquired a reasonable idea of politics in Canada, and figured I'd offer some random outside analysis of what I've seen and read so far. Things will probably get sillier as you go down.
1. The main problem I see with the Liberals at this point is that they don't seem terribly competent to me. Martin has rather ruthlessly wiped out many of the folks who led the government that was on top in Ottawa for a decade and has left us with a bunch of green (small G) folks who don't strike me as being terribly good at governing. In fact, if their campaign is any reflection upon their governing, it ain't looking good for you guys.
2. Very few people seem to actually like the Conservatives. They just want to penalize the Martin government. Stephen Harper will play very well in Red Deer and the like, but the odds that someone will vote Tory because they really want to in a suburban Toronto riding, or in Hamilton or Sarnia or Sault Ste. Marie (nearest to me), where the election will be won or lost tomorrow seems kind of slim to me.
3. Like it or not, Paul Martin's right. A vote for the NDP is just about a vote for the Conservatives. This could be the American liberal (small L) within me, still smarting just a little bit about Al Gore and West Palm Beach county, but Jack Layton's NDP could suck some of the far-left anti-Harper protest vote away from the Liberals in the same way Ralph Nader sucked the anti-Republican protest vote away from Gore. I like the guy, probably more than any of the other leaders. He's got panache and more charisma than Martin and Harper put together. But he doesn't have enough support to be a factor. Don't get me wrong, I love multi-party politics but like a lapped car in a NASCAR race, I can't help but believe that all the NDP does here is hold up the Liberals so that the Conservatives can zoom by on the road to Ottawa.
4. Gilles Duceppe is a lucky SOB. Not only is he going to cruise to a very large number of seats, but he can't lose no matter how this government boils out. Whoever's in power will have to make huge concessions to Quebec to stay there very long. If the Liberals govern, he can play the sponsorship/corruption card and say that the Canadian government doesn't work, let's have a referendum. If the Tories are in power, they likely will have minimal or no representation in Quebec, and they can say, nobody cares about us in this government, let's have a referendum. He's got all of the Ottawa power brokers trapped under his (hair)net, and whether he says so or not, this election has started the direction of the sovereigntist movement slowly back in the direction of another referendum.
5. I can't help but think what this election would be like if we had the 2000 cast of characters. I'd love to hear your thoughts about this, but I have a feeling that M Chretien would have another majority government in the bag, sponsorship be damned. The guy knows his politics and I believe he'd play all the cards right. He'd probably still have trouble in Quebec, sure, but I think Chretien would be able to hold on to most of Ontario and have a comfortable, if not as solid as last time, majority. Good old Stockwell Day (I miss Stockwell, if only for the sheer hilarity he brought to the 2000 campaign) would probably make many of the same mistakes, Alexa McDonough would just kind of let the NDP be the New Wallflower Party and Gilles Duceppe would still be a lucky SOB. Joe Clark? He'd probably still be around, looking really jowly, crotchety and almost as unintentionally hilarious as Day and Chretien's funny accent (I'm sorry if this is offensive, but I loved having Chretien around simply because he was one of the easiest impressions to do of a world leader ever. Talk out of the side of your mouth with a heavy French-Canadian accent and you're good to go.)
6. Jack Layton strikes me as a fairly interesting leader, but totally a big fish in a tiny pond. I like the guy quite a bit (and my personal political tendencies find his platform appealing), but he's never going to be the PM. However, if he does make it to the Commons, I have a feeling that Question Time just got a lot funnier.
7. Is anyone else mad that the election happened during the summer, and thus, out of the reach of the 22 Minutes gang? How much I hoped that there would be some special episode and we'd see Marg Delahunty v. Stephen Harper, or an endless supply of Paul Martin jokes which I have to believe could be hilarious, but no. I imagine they'll have lots to say when the fall begins, but that'll be when I'll be back at school, where I don't get CBC. Damn.
8. Who would I vote for if I was Canadian, you ask? As awful as it is, some times you do have to vote against what you don't want to see in your country. Millions will be doing it against Dubya this fall. Like it or not, the old PC seems to be gone, replaced by the Conservative Alliance of Canada. This is not the Mulroney, Joe Clark conservatives (for better or worse). It's Ralph Klein and Preston Manning's brand of conservative. Its stance on defense spending, most social issues, and taxation (among other things) reminds me (just a little) of a Republican Party of Canada. There are people that might want that. I wouldn't, but you don't have to worry about me. It would depend on the competitiveness of the riding, but I'd probably vote Liberal or NDP.
9. If I were to guess a final count at the end of the day, pulled totally out of my rear end, I'd say something like this: Liberal 123, Conservative 114, Bloc Quebecois 55, NDP 16. Probably way off, but I figure the Liberal advantage will be about 5-10 seats because of the Conservatives' inability to get much more than a significant protest vote in Ontario.
10. Thanks for tolerating my opinions, which I'm sure have a few holes in logic and information. Enjoy your chance to vote, and I'll try to be around tomorrow night to weigh in on the proceedings.
Thanks, Brandon.
1. The main problem I see with the Liberals at this point is that they don't seem terribly competent to me. Martin has rather ruthlessly wiped out many of the folks who led the government that was on top in Ottawa for a decade and has left us with a bunch of green (small G) folks who don't strike me as being terribly good at governing. In fact, if their campaign is any reflection upon their governing, it ain't looking good for you guys.
2. Very few people seem to actually like the Conservatives. They just want to penalize the Martin government. Stephen Harper will play very well in Red Deer and the like, but the odds that someone will vote Tory because they really want to in a suburban Toronto riding, or in Hamilton or Sarnia or Sault Ste. Marie (nearest to me), where the election will be won or lost tomorrow seems kind of slim to me.
3. Like it or not, Paul Martin's right. A vote for the NDP is just about a vote for the Conservatives. This could be the American liberal (small L) within me, still smarting just a little bit about Al Gore and West Palm Beach county, but Jack Layton's NDP could suck some of the far-left anti-Harper protest vote away from the Liberals in the same way Ralph Nader sucked the anti-Republican protest vote away from Gore. I like the guy, probably more than any of the other leaders. He's got panache and more charisma than Martin and Harper put together. But he doesn't have enough support to be a factor. Don't get me wrong, I love multi-party politics but like a lapped car in a NASCAR race, I can't help but believe that all the NDP does here is hold up the Liberals so that the Conservatives can zoom by on the road to Ottawa.
4. Gilles Duceppe is a lucky SOB. Not only is he going to cruise to a very large number of seats, but he can't lose no matter how this government boils out. Whoever's in power will have to make huge concessions to Quebec to stay there very long. If the Liberals govern, he can play the sponsorship/corruption card and say that the Canadian government doesn't work, let's have a referendum. If the Tories are in power, they likely will have minimal or no representation in Quebec, and they can say, nobody cares about us in this government, let's have a referendum. He's got all of the Ottawa power brokers trapped under his (hair)net, and whether he says so or not, this election has started the direction of the sovereigntist movement slowly back in the direction of another referendum.
5. I can't help but think what this election would be like if we had the 2000 cast of characters. I'd love to hear your thoughts about this, but I have a feeling that M Chretien would have another majority government in the bag, sponsorship be damned. The guy knows his politics and I believe he'd play all the cards right. He'd probably still have trouble in Quebec, sure, but I think Chretien would be able to hold on to most of Ontario and have a comfortable, if not as solid as last time, majority. Good old Stockwell Day (I miss Stockwell, if only for the sheer hilarity he brought to the 2000 campaign) would probably make many of the same mistakes, Alexa McDonough would just kind of let the NDP be the New Wallflower Party and Gilles Duceppe would still be a lucky SOB. Joe Clark? He'd probably still be around, looking really jowly, crotchety and almost as unintentionally hilarious as Day and Chretien's funny accent (I'm sorry if this is offensive, but I loved having Chretien around simply because he was one of the easiest impressions to do of a world leader ever. Talk out of the side of your mouth with a heavy French-Canadian accent and you're good to go.)
6. Jack Layton strikes me as a fairly interesting leader, but totally a big fish in a tiny pond. I like the guy quite a bit (and my personal political tendencies find his platform appealing), but he's never going to be the PM. However, if he does make it to the Commons, I have a feeling that Question Time just got a lot funnier.
7. Is anyone else mad that the election happened during the summer, and thus, out of the reach of the 22 Minutes gang? How much I hoped that there would be some special episode and we'd see Marg Delahunty v. Stephen Harper, or an endless supply of Paul Martin jokes which I have to believe could be hilarious, but no. I imagine they'll have lots to say when the fall begins, but that'll be when I'll be back at school, where I don't get CBC. Damn.
8. Who would I vote for if I was Canadian, you ask? As awful as it is, some times you do have to vote against what you don't want to see in your country. Millions will be doing it against Dubya this fall. Like it or not, the old PC seems to be gone, replaced by the Conservative Alliance of Canada. This is not the Mulroney, Joe Clark conservatives (for better or worse). It's Ralph Klein and Preston Manning's brand of conservative. Its stance on defense spending, most social issues, and taxation (among other things) reminds me (just a little) of a Republican Party of Canada. There are people that might want that. I wouldn't, but you don't have to worry about me. It would depend on the competitiveness of the riding, but I'd probably vote Liberal or NDP.
9. If I were to guess a final count at the end of the day, pulled totally out of my rear end, I'd say something like this: Liberal 123, Conservative 114, Bloc Quebecois 55, NDP 16. Probably way off, but I figure the Liberal advantage will be about 5-10 seats because of the Conservatives' inability to get much more than a significant protest vote in Ontario.
10. Thanks for tolerating my opinions, which I'm sure have a few holes in logic and information. Enjoy your chance to vote, and I'll try to be around tomorrow night to weigh in on the proceedings.
Thanks, Brandon.