uncle joel's prognostication corner
Assuming I haven't deleted the blog by then, we can check back in four years and see how right or wrong I was.
Terrible Things Obama Will Do That McCain Would Not Have Done
* Taxes on me
Obama claims he will not raise my taxes. I do not believe him. I expect that my marginal rates will go up and that he will raise/eliminate the cap on Social Security taxes. You might think of me as greedy for worrying about this, but I work hard, and I already pay tons of money in taxes, and most of it gets spent on awful things I don't approve of.
* Un-Taxes on people poorer than me
I expect Obama to start eliminating taxes on low earners and sending "refund" checks to people who do not pay any taxes, increasing a culture of dependence on government, an attitude of "it's not my money, so who cares how stupidly they spend it", and a vision of government as "sugar daddy".
* Forced volunteerism
Obama will institute some sort of "national service" program that recruits teenagers into paramilitary-style squads to engage in left-wing activism. He will be unable to make this mandatory (as that would be a form of slavery), but will instead make participation in this program (or the military) a requirement for federal financial aid for college.
* "Fairness" Doctrine
Congress will pass (and Obama will sign) a revival of the "fairness doctrine", which will then be used selectively against conservative talk radio, but not against liberal TV networks or NPR. My attempts to invoke the fairness doctrine to get a column next to Billy Graham's will fail
* IP Issues
The Democratic congress will roll over for the RIAA and MPAA and give them sweeping new pseudo-law-enforcement powers. Obama will proudly sign the bill, remarking on the importance of fighting "piracy"
* Supreme Court
Obama will appoint at least 2, and possibly 3, justices to the Supreme Court. They will be "judicial activists" able to find spurious "rights" in every nook and cranny of the constitution. They will do incalculable damage to the cause of liberty, largely by deciding that other people have "rights" to my money and to Harrison-Bergeron-style "fairness" and (especially) not to have their feelings hurt
* Pay "Equality"
Obama and Congress will pass some sort of "equal pay for equal work" bill, which will have entirely predictable "unintended" consequences
* Unions
Congress and Obama will pass Card Check (and other) legislation that will dramatically strengthen the power of unions. More jobs will end up sent overseas as a result.
* Trade
Obama and Congress will be trade-unfriendly. Obama will not pull out of NAFTA, but he will attempt to renegotiate some of its provisions. (See previous.)
* Faith-based programs
Will expand federal funding of "faith-based" programs, with a bias toward funding left-wing programs.
* Guns
Will work hard to make handguns more difficult to legally obtain. Will attempt federal ban on concealed carry. This ban will fail.
* Civil Liberties
Congress will pass laws against thought crimes and the government will increasingly use nasty privacy-invading tactics against those who dissent. I'll probably end up in front of some kind of Ezra-Levant-esque tribunal once my book comes out. I'll videotape it (the tribunal, not the book) and it will become a YouTube sensation.
Terrible Things Obama Will Do That McCain Probably Also Would Have Done
* Education
Congress will dramatically increase federal spending on public education. Public education will continue to get worse.
* Social Security
Obama and the Congress will work to expand Social Security benefits.
* Immigration
Congress will attempt to pass an amnesty bill (which they will not refer to as an amnesty bill). It will either barely pass or barely fail.
* "Alternative" Energy
Congress will allocate assloads of money to "alternative energy" research. The overwhelming bulk of this money will end up in pork-barrel projects that never produce anything of even slight value.
* Housing
Will craft bailout for (some subset of) people who bought houses they couldn't afford, implicitly penalizing those of us who bought (smaller) houses we could afford.
Things Obama Will Not Do
* Healthcare
No substantial healthcare reform will take place. Seriously.
* Abortion
Abortion will still be legal. (This also would have been the case under a McCain administration.)
* Drugs
Will (with the overwhelming support of Biden) continue the hugely moronic, hugely destructive war on drugs
* "Carbon Neutrality"
Nothing will happen on this.
* Guantanamo
Obama will not figure out a way to shut down Guantanamo. Alternatively, he may shut it down and open up its equivalent elsewhere.
* Economy
Obama will not be able to save the economy. Sorry.
--
You will notice I didn't say much about foreign policy. That's because I don't have a good sense of Obama's foreign policy (and also I'm not good at making predictions about foreign policy. Someone else can do that.)
Terrible Things Obama Will Do That McCain Would Not Have Done
* Taxes on me
Obama claims he will not raise my taxes. I do not believe him. I expect that my marginal rates will go up and that he will raise/eliminate the cap on Social Security taxes. You might think of me as greedy for worrying about this, but I work hard, and I already pay tons of money in taxes, and most of it gets spent on awful things I don't approve of.
* Un-Taxes on people poorer than me
I expect Obama to start eliminating taxes on low earners and sending "refund" checks to people who do not pay any taxes, increasing a culture of dependence on government, an attitude of "it's not my money, so who cares how stupidly they spend it", and a vision of government as "sugar daddy".
* Forced volunteerism
Obama will institute some sort of "national service" program that recruits teenagers into paramilitary-style squads to engage in left-wing activism. He will be unable to make this mandatory (as that would be a form of slavery), but will instead make participation in this program (or the military) a requirement for federal financial aid for college.
* "Fairness" Doctrine
Congress will pass (and Obama will sign) a revival of the "fairness doctrine", which will then be used selectively against conservative talk radio, but not against liberal TV networks or NPR. My attempts to invoke the fairness doctrine to get a column next to Billy Graham's will fail
* IP Issues
The Democratic congress will roll over for the RIAA and MPAA and give them sweeping new pseudo-law-enforcement powers. Obama will proudly sign the bill, remarking on the importance of fighting "piracy"
* Supreme Court
Obama will appoint at least 2, and possibly 3, justices to the Supreme Court. They will be "judicial activists" able to find spurious "rights" in every nook and cranny of the constitution. They will do incalculable damage to the cause of liberty, largely by deciding that other people have "rights" to my money and to Harrison-Bergeron-style "fairness" and (especially) not to have their feelings hurt
* Pay "Equality"
Obama and Congress will pass some sort of "equal pay for equal work" bill, which will have entirely predictable "unintended" consequences
* Unions
Congress and Obama will pass Card Check (and other) legislation that will dramatically strengthen the power of unions. More jobs will end up sent overseas as a result.
* Trade
Obama and Congress will be trade-unfriendly. Obama will not pull out of NAFTA, but he will attempt to renegotiate some of its provisions. (See previous.)
* Faith-based programs
Will expand federal funding of "faith-based" programs, with a bias toward funding left-wing programs.
* Guns
Will work hard to make handguns more difficult to legally obtain. Will attempt federal ban on concealed carry. This ban will fail.
* Civil Liberties
Congress will pass laws against thought crimes and the government will increasingly use nasty privacy-invading tactics against those who dissent. I'll probably end up in front of some kind of Ezra-Levant-esque tribunal once my book comes out. I'll videotape it (the tribunal, not the book) and it will become a YouTube sensation.
Terrible Things Obama Will Do That McCain Probably Also Would Have Done
* Education
Congress will dramatically increase federal spending on public education. Public education will continue to get worse.
* Social Security
Obama and the Congress will work to expand Social Security benefits.
* Immigration
Congress will attempt to pass an amnesty bill (which they will not refer to as an amnesty bill). It will either barely pass or barely fail.
* "Alternative" Energy
Congress will allocate assloads of money to "alternative energy" research. The overwhelming bulk of this money will end up in pork-barrel projects that never produce anything of even slight value.
* Housing
Will craft bailout for (some subset of) people who bought houses they couldn't afford, implicitly penalizing those of us who bought (smaller) houses we could afford.
Things Obama Will Not Do
* Healthcare
No substantial healthcare reform will take place. Seriously.
* Abortion
Abortion will still be legal. (This also would have been the case under a McCain administration.)
* Drugs
Will (with the overwhelming support of Biden) continue the hugely moronic, hugely destructive war on drugs
* "Carbon Neutrality"
Nothing will happen on this.
* Guantanamo
Obama will not figure out a way to shut down Guantanamo. Alternatively, he may shut it down and open up its equivalent elsewhere.
* Economy
Obama will not be able to save the economy. Sorry.
--
You will notice I didn't say much about foreign policy. That's because I don't have a good sense of Obama's foreign policy (and also I'm not good at making predictions about foreign policy. Someone else can do that.)