And the Oscar Will Go To...
I know, you've all been waiting at the edge of your seats for this moment: the revelation of Taylor's 2010 Oscar Predictions. Well, they're here now, whether you were eagerly awaiting them or not. Oscar ballots were due a couple hours ago, so nothing that happens between now and Sunday night can affect the results. To paraphrase what someone recently said, a leading nominee could straight-up kill someone… with a machete… on national television… while streaking… and yodeling, and it wouldn't make a difference in the world.
In each category, I've listed my prediction, an alternate, my personal favorite, and the order of likelihood of all the nominees in that category, along with my general reasoning for the above. I would like to state that I reserve the right to tinker with any and all of this up until Sunday afternoon, but all edits will be made with brackets, so as to indicate that they came later (I will probably regret some changes if I make them, but I will also regret not making them if I don't, it's a lose-lose scenario). And to be real nice, I've put it all behind a cut so as not to clog up your friends pages. Enjoy (or not... hence the cut, lol).
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker
COULD WIN (i.e. an alternate): Inglourious Basterds
SHOULD WIN (i.e. my personal pick): Inglourious Basterds
IN ORDER (i.e. how likely they are to win): 1. The Hurt Locker, 2. Inglourious Basterds, 3. Avatar, 4. Precious, 5. Up in the Air, 6. Up, 7. An Education, 8. The Blind Side, 9. District 9, 10. A Serious Man
THOUGHTS: I've seen them all now, other than Blind Side, and they're all good in different ways and differing degrees, except for Serious Man, which was just outright terrible. The Hurt Locker has won every major precursor other than the SAG Ensemble, which went to Basterds, and the Golden Globe, which went to Avatar. The Globes mean nothing in Oscar territory, so that win also means nothing. The SAG, however, could speak to a potential upset, thanks to the overwhelming number of actors in the academy membership. That said, the love for Locker is probably just too much to overwhelm it at this point, even when you take into consideration the e-mail scandal that just went down with one of the film's producers. Do I have a problem with it? No. Is it the best film of the year? No. Kathryn Bigelow created a fantastic action movie that makes you think. Quentin Tarantino made a bloody, utterly satisfying masterpiece. You be the judge of which deserves the award for Best Picture.
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
COULD WIN: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
SHOULD WIN: Kathryn Bigelow
IN ORDER: 1. Kathryn Bigelow, 2. Quentin Tarantino, 3. James Cameron, 4. Jason Reitman, 5. Lee Daniels
THOUGHTS: What a powerhouse category. Seriously. They all deserve to be here. And the common sense approach to this is that these five films would be the five nominees if we hadn't expanded to ten (personally, I don't think that's true… there's always a surprise, so these would have been the five expected nominees, one of which would have been upset, likely by An Education to match the BAFTA nominees; that said, it's all guesswork and doesn't matter). Kathryn Bigelow's direction had the biggest impact on her film, though, and for that she deserves to win. The fact that she'll be the first woman to win the Academy Award for Best Director is but icing on the cake. A small part of me wants Tarantino to win because it's about damn time, but he'll get his turn at the podium some day. I hope.
BEST ACTOR
WILL WIN: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
COULD WIN: Colin Firth, A Single Man
SHOULD WIN: Colin Firth
IN ORDER: 1. Jeff Bridges, 2. Colin Firth, 3. Jeremy Renner, 4. George Clooney, 5. Morgan Freeman
THOUGHTS: Jeff Bridges has this in the bag at this point. He's won all the major precursors other than the BAFTA (which didn't match in this category last year), he's well-loved, and he apparently puts in a noteworthy performance. That said, I haven't seen any of these performances other than Renner's and Clooney's, but it's been said repeatedly that Firth's is truly the best of the year and he's losing basically because Bridges hasn't won one yet. For that reason, I'm cheering on the underdog. I'm not a fan of the whole "we should have awarded you before, so have one now" mentality that the Academy adopts from time to time, so while I would be perfectly content to see Bridges win, I'd be delighted to see a Firth upset. Side note: if Clooney somehow wins, it's a travesty. He plays himself in Up in the Air, a film whose appeal for me has only waned with time and further reflection.
BEST ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
COULD WIN: Carey Mulligan, An Education
SHOULD WIN: Carey Mulligan
IN ORDER: 1. Sandra Bullock, 2. Carey Mulligan, 3. Meryl Streep, 4. Gabourey Sidibe, 5. Helen Mirren
THOUGHTS: This is the category that I find most deceptively easy. My gut says "Sandra, obviously." She's won everything leading up to this, except the BAFTA (she wasn't eligible for a nomination because the film wasn't out in Britain yet), she's so loved by everyone in the acting community (and by me, if we're being honest), and they could want to reward her because she may never get an Oscar-worthy role like this again. It seems like a sealed deal, really. But, but, but. It's not the best performance of the year. I've only seen the trailer, and I feel safe echoing what many people are saying: this is not the caliber necessary to win this award. Whereas Carey Mulligan was marvelous, transporting, effervescent, and, most importantly, utter convincing and charming. I absolutely believed she was 16-year-old Jenny for every second of that film, and I feel in love with Jenny for all the reasons you're supposed to fall in love with Jenny. Don't get me wrong, Meryl Streep is an acting goddess, and none of these woman can hold a candle to her career. But Julia Child? No, no, wait till she's done something truly transcendent to reward her again; don't just do it because you haven't in a few decades; that's why you keep nominating her, isn't it? You're just waiting for the right role, the one that wows us all. And Gabby, she's brilliant in interviews, she just lights up, and holy Jesus, did she wring the ever-living essence out of that role? That said, Carey's performance was just thatmuch more magical than hers, so I have to give her the edge on a personal level. From what I here, Helen Mirren does great work, but nothing special in a not-outstanding film. Plus she just won a few years ago. Enjoy the nomination, Helen.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
COULD WIN: Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz
IN ORDER: 1. Christoph Waltz, 2. Christopher Plummer, 3. Woody Harrelson, 4. Stanley Tucci, 5. Matt Damon
THOUGHTS: Will Waltz win? That's a bingo! No one else could have played that role; that delightful, malevolent, dastardly manipulator of an antagonist was something Waltz slipped into like a suit, and boy, was it cut to fit him. Hans Landa was the best villain of the year, bar none (yes, I'm including the likely Best Supporting Actress winner in this as well), and the villain of the year has won this award the last couple years (Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men and Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight). He's won everything. Everything. No one can stop him. Except maybe Christopher Plummer, who's real old and has never won. But Peter O'Toole didn't win under similar circumstances a few years ago. So no, this is Waltz's, and as much as I dread his acceptance speech, I'll be so, so happy when he gets that trophy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Mo'nique, Precious
COULD WIN: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
SHOULD WIN: Mo'nique
IN ORDER: 1. Mo'nique, 2. Anna Kendrick, 3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, 4. Vera Farmiga, 5. Penelope Cruz
THOUGHTS: I've seen four of these five performances, the most in any of the acting categories, and Mo'nique's terrifying, destructive, purely evil mother is in a league of its own. Anna Kendrick is cute and winning, Vera Farmiga is convincingly sultry and independent, and Penelope Cruz sizzles in a minor way before fizzing out (she really doesn't deserve to be here over Melanie Laurent or Diane Kruger, if we're being honest). Maggie is only here because of carry-over love from Jeff Bridges. And it doesn't matter. Oscar loves a deglam and a major change of persona. Mo'nique will win, just like she's won everything else this season in spite of her non-campaign approach to the whole Oscar deal. And good for her, too.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: Inglourious Basterds
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Inglourious Basterds
IN ORDER: 1. Inglourious Basterds, 2. The Hurt Locker, 3. A Serious Man, 4. Up, 5.The Messengers
THOUGHTS: This is perhaps the toughest category to call this year. Those top two are neck-and-neck in terms of buzz and support, even though Tarantino's work is, in my opinion, markedly superior. I'm giving Tarantino a slight edge because this is where he won with Pulp Fiction, too, and I just can't see them sending him home completely empty-handed. Plus, I don't see Hurt Locker as SO well-loved that it will sweep everything (which is what some are predicting). This is just not a Titanic or a Slumdog, and the competition is steeper than it was in those cases. That said, if Hurt Locker is winning a lot of minor awards early in the evening, except it to go home with the gold at the end of the night. The other options? Meh to them all, especially Serious which had a shitty, shitty screenplay. (500) Days of Summer should have been here for its sparkling originality.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: Up in the Air
COULD WIN: Precious
SHOULD WIN: An Education
IN ORDER: 1. Up in the Air, 2. Precious, 3. An Education, 4. District 9, 5. In the Loop
THOUGHTS: There's some very, very strong work in this category. But Up in the Air keeps winning, largely as a consolation prize for Jason Reitman (see the above comment about Tarantino and Pulp Fiction). So, it will probably win here, too. But it lacks the force and weight of Precious, the cleverness and charm of An Education, and the intrigue and originality of District 9 (it's okay to call it original, since it's "adapted" from a short film that's about the same things, made by the same filmmakers), all of which would be more deserving winners in my book. In the Loop is apparently very funny, but at the end of the day, it's just lucky to be here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: Up
COULD WIN: Fantastic Mr. Fox
SHOULD WIN: Coraline
IN ORDER: 1. Up, 2. Fantastic Mr. Fox, 3. Coraline, 4. The Princess and the Frog, 5. The Secret of Kells
THOUGHTS: Pixar is powerful here. Plus, Up is also nominated for Best Picture (only the second animated film to ever make it there, the first being Disney's Beauty and the Beast). It will win, there's no real question, despite some striking support for Fox in the precursors. But the real winner in my eyes is Coraline, a delightful, well-made romp based on a children's book by Neil Gaiman (one of my favorite authors). Disney's back to 2-D with Princess, but it only got just-above-average reviews. And The Secret of Kells was a stunner (arguably the biggest shock of nomination morning) that most people still haven't seen.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
WILL WIN: The White Ribbon
COULD WIN: The Secret in Their Eyes
SHOULD WIN: I have no clue, really, but The Secret in Their Eyes sounds most appealing to me, so let's go with that
IN ORDER: 1. The White Ribbon (Germany), 2. The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina), 3. A Prophet (France), 4. Milk of Sorrow (Peru), 5. Ajami (Israel)
THOUGHTS: I haven't seen any of them, and I'm still bummed about the loss of Pan's Labyrinth in this category a few years ago, and there's a tendency to shock here. So I'm basically expecting to get this wrong, haha. But Germany's White Ribbon has nominations in other categories, which is usually a good sign and will probably be enough to push it past the murmured buzz for the Argentinian Secret.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
WILL WIN: The Cove
COULD WIN: Food Inc.
SHOULD WIN: The Cove
IN ORDER: 1. The Cove, 2. Food Inc., 3. Burma VJ, 4. Which Way Home, 5. The Most Dangerous Man in America
THOUGHTS: I know nothing about these, I'm just following general buzz and hearsay. Plus, everyone loves dolphins!
BEST ART DIRECTION
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: Sherlock Holmes
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. Sherlock Holmes, 3. Nine, 4. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, 5. The Young Victoria
THOUGHTS: Avatar is a Best Picture nominees, it's won precursors in this category, and I also expect it to win the vast majority of its technical nominations, anyway. The rest is mostly guesswork based on personal preference, since art direction is one of the technical categories I've started to pay more attention to in films since I became obsessed with the Oscars.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Avatar or Inglourious Basterds (I can't pick one, I just can't)
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. The Hurt Locker, 3. Inglourious Basterds, 4. The White Ribbon, 5. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
THOUGHTS: Again with the Avatar tech awards flush. Also it really was quite amazing cinematographically and displayed better than any film before it has what can be accomplished through a combination of computers and camerawork. The Hurt Locker could sweep, sure, but I don't see it happening, especially since there was a lot of herky-jerky handheld stuff in this one. And Inglourious Basterds made more interesting and noteworthy use of its camera and its cuts than most of the other nominees. White Ribbon did just win a major cinematography precursor. Most people see it as a four-way race between these four, still. And hey, it's cool that Harry Potter got a pretty legit nomination. Maybe the last two will get something even bigger… though probably not.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: The Young Victoria
COULD WIN: Bright Star
SHOULD WIN: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
IN ORDER: 1. The Young Victoria, 2. Bright Star, 3. Nine, 4. Coco Before Chanel, 5. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
THOUGHTS: I know nothing about this and care even less, to be honest, and there's no Best Picture nominees here, so it's tough. But Victoria has won some precursors, so perhaps it will win here, too. I just think the Imaginarium costumes look cool.
BEST EDITING
WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker
COULD WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. The Hurt Locker, 2. Avatar, 3. Inglourious Basterds, 4. District 9, 5. Precious
THOUGHTS: I'm going with Hurt Locker here because Editing and Best Picture are often linked. That said, I think Avatar has editing work that stands above the rest. The others are just here to fill slots, in my view (unless Basterds pulls off the shocker win for Picture and snags this as well… be still, my beating heart).
BEST MAKEUP
WILL WIN: Star Trek
COULD WIN: Il Divo
SHOULD WIN: District 9... oh wait, it was ROBBED... sigh, Star Trek it is then
IN ORDER: 1. Star Trek, 2. Il Divo, 3. The Young Victoria
THOUGHTS: Why isn't District 9 here? That's legitimately the only thought I have about this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: Up
COULD WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Up
IN ORDER. 1. Up, 2. Avatar, 3. The Hurt Locker, 4. Fantastic Mr. Fox, 5. Sherlock Holmes
THOUGHTS: The composer for Up is Michael Giacchino, also the composer for Lost, so he's a super-deserving winner in my book. He's won a ton of precursors, and he also wrote the score for Star Trek, which was well-liked, too. Essentially, this is his year, unless we see a true tech sweep from Avatar or a true sweep sweep from Hurt Locker. They would not deserve it in this case.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
COULD WIN: "Take It All," Nine
SHOULD WIN: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
IN ORDER: 1. "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart, 2. "Take It All," Nine, 3. "Down in New Orleans," The Princess and the Frog, 4. "Almost There," The Princess and the Frog, 5. "Loin de Paname," Paris 36
THOUGHTS: What the fuck is Paris 36? And why does this category suck so hard this year? Even the song with the most appeal, "The Weary Kind," is still lackluster. Though it was much maligned, I was personally a fan of the other big Nine number ("Cinema Italiano") over the still-simmering but somehow ineffective "Take It All." The Disney songs will cancel each other out. And again, what the fuck is Paris 36?
BEST SOUND EDITING
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. The Hurt Locker, 3. Star Trek, 4. Inglourious Basterds, 5. Up
THOUGHTS: Again, will it be the Avatar tech sweep? Or the Hurt Locker general sweep? I don't know enough about sound to judge these, so no further comment.
BEST SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. The Hurt Locker, 3. Star Trek, 4. Inglourious Basterds, 5. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
THOUGHTS: Transformers is this year's ridiculous-film-that-never-should-have-been-nominated-that-snuck-in-a-small-category. Otherwise, see the comments for Sound Editing.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: NOBODY ELSE
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. District 9, 3. Star Trek
THOUGHTS: Come on, now. This is so easy it almost isn't worth it to write commentary. Even if you LOATHED Avatar, you know it deserves to win here. They spent twelve years developing this amazingness, and the other two big sci-fi films of the year can't hold a candle to it, really. If one of them somehow miraculously upsets, it will likely be the night's biggest travesty, and I don't use that word lightly here.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
WILL WIN: A Matter of Loaf and Death
COULD WIN: Logorama
SHOULD WIN: The Lady and the Reaper
IN ORDER: 1. A Matter of Loaf and Death, 2. Logorama, 3. The Lady and the Reaper, 4. Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty, 5. French Roast
THOUGHTS: I actually saw these this year thanks to the wonders of the internet. And while Wallace and Gromit will prevail here because they always do, and while Logorama is getting critical buzz for its creativity and its message, the only one that caused me any sheer delight was The Lady and the Reaper. The final two are cute but unimpressive.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
WILL WIN: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
COULD WIN: China's Unnatural Disaster
SHOULD WIN: no idea, but I'll go with Last Truck for its timeliness
IN ORDER: 1. The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, 2. China's Unnatural Disaster, 3. Rabbit à la Berlin, 4. Music by Prudence, 5. The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
THOUGHTS: Who knows? But Last Truck has the ONLY buzz in this category, and it's timely (I guess in the way Up in the Air is timely), so I'm going with it. [EDITED ON 03/04: Apparently there's also a lot of love for China's Unnatural Disaster, but I get the vibe that it's too last-minute, and Last Truck is also very AMERICA!! in comparison, which probably-maybe still gives it the edge. Honestly, these short categories are notoriously difficult to predict, so cut me some slack if I eff this one up, lol.]
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
WILL WIN: The Door
COULD WIN: Miracle Fish
SHOULD WIN: again, no idea, but let's go with Instead of Abracadabra since it's apparently a comedy about a magician--fun, right?
IN ORDER: 1. The Door, 2. Miracle Fish, 3. The New Tenants, 4. Instead of Abracadabra, 5. Kavi
THOUGHTS: Je ne sais pas. Basing this on other people's predictions, on buzz, and on what I've read about them (mostly just synopses, if we're being honest).
Well, there you have it. Twenty-four categories later, and I'm (probably, maybe) finally done with my Oscar predictions for the year. Tune in Sunday to see how well I do (or how poorly, but let's be optimistic, please).
In each category, I've listed my prediction, an alternate, my personal favorite, and the order of likelihood of all the nominees in that category, along with my general reasoning for the above. I would like to state that I reserve the right to tinker with any and all of this up until Sunday afternoon, but all edits will be made with brackets, so as to indicate that they came later (I will probably regret some changes if I make them, but I will also regret not making them if I don't, it's a lose-lose scenario). And to be real nice, I've put it all behind a cut so as not to clog up your friends pages. Enjoy (or not... hence the cut, lol).
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker
COULD WIN (i.e. an alternate): Inglourious Basterds
SHOULD WIN (i.e. my personal pick): Inglourious Basterds
IN ORDER (i.e. how likely they are to win): 1. The Hurt Locker, 2. Inglourious Basterds, 3. Avatar, 4. Precious, 5. Up in the Air, 6. Up, 7. An Education, 8. The Blind Side, 9. District 9, 10. A Serious Man
THOUGHTS: I've seen them all now, other than Blind Side, and they're all good in different ways and differing degrees, except for Serious Man, which was just outright terrible. The Hurt Locker has won every major precursor other than the SAG Ensemble, which went to Basterds, and the Golden Globe, which went to Avatar. The Globes mean nothing in Oscar territory, so that win also means nothing. The SAG, however, could speak to a potential upset, thanks to the overwhelming number of actors in the academy membership. That said, the love for Locker is probably just too much to overwhelm it at this point, even when you take into consideration the e-mail scandal that just went down with one of the film's producers. Do I have a problem with it? No. Is it the best film of the year? No. Kathryn Bigelow created a fantastic action movie that makes you think. Quentin Tarantino made a bloody, utterly satisfying masterpiece. You be the judge of which deserves the award for Best Picture.
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
COULD WIN: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
SHOULD WIN: Kathryn Bigelow
IN ORDER: 1. Kathryn Bigelow, 2. Quentin Tarantino, 3. James Cameron, 4. Jason Reitman, 5. Lee Daniels
THOUGHTS: What a powerhouse category. Seriously. They all deserve to be here. And the common sense approach to this is that these five films would be the five nominees if we hadn't expanded to ten (personally, I don't think that's true… there's always a surprise, so these would have been the five expected nominees, one of which would have been upset, likely by An Education to match the BAFTA nominees; that said, it's all guesswork and doesn't matter). Kathryn Bigelow's direction had the biggest impact on her film, though, and for that she deserves to win. The fact that she'll be the first woman to win the Academy Award for Best Director is but icing on the cake. A small part of me wants Tarantino to win because it's about damn time, but he'll get his turn at the podium some day. I hope.
BEST ACTOR
WILL WIN: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
COULD WIN: Colin Firth, A Single Man
SHOULD WIN: Colin Firth
IN ORDER: 1. Jeff Bridges, 2. Colin Firth, 3. Jeremy Renner, 4. George Clooney, 5. Morgan Freeman
THOUGHTS: Jeff Bridges has this in the bag at this point. He's won all the major precursors other than the BAFTA (which didn't match in this category last year), he's well-loved, and he apparently puts in a noteworthy performance. That said, I haven't seen any of these performances other than Renner's and Clooney's, but it's been said repeatedly that Firth's is truly the best of the year and he's losing basically because Bridges hasn't won one yet. For that reason, I'm cheering on the underdog. I'm not a fan of the whole "we should have awarded you before, so have one now" mentality that the Academy adopts from time to time, so while I would be perfectly content to see Bridges win, I'd be delighted to see a Firth upset. Side note: if Clooney somehow wins, it's a travesty. He plays himself in Up in the Air, a film whose appeal for me has only waned with time and further reflection.
BEST ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
COULD WIN: Carey Mulligan, An Education
SHOULD WIN: Carey Mulligan
IN ORDER: 1. Sandra Bullock, 2. Carey Mulligan, 3. Meryl Streep, 4. Gabourey Sidibe, 5. Helen Mirren
THOUGHTS: This is the category that I find most deceptively easy. My gut says "Sandra, obviously." She's won everything leading up to this, except the BAFTA (she wasn't eligible for a nomination because the film wasn't out in Britain yet), she's so loved by everyone in the acting community (and by me, if we're being honest), and they could want to reward her because she may never get an Oscar-worthy role like this again. It seems like a sealed deal, really. But, but, but. It's not the best performance of the year. I've only seen the trailer, and I feel safe echoing what many people are saying: this is not the caliber necessary to win this award. Whereas Carey Mulligan was marvelous, transporting, effervescent, and, most importantly, utter convincing and charming. I absolutely believed she was 16-year-old Jenny for every second of that film, and I feel in love with Jenny for all the reasons you're supposed to fall in love with Jenny. Don't get me wrong, Meryl Streep is an acting goddess, and none of these woman can hold a candle to her career. But Julia Child? No, no, wait till she's done something truly transcendent to reward her again; don't just do it because you haven't in a few decades; that's why you keep nominating her, isn't it? You're just waiting for the right role, the one that wows us all. And Gabby, she's brilliant in interviews, she just lights up, and holy Jesus, did she wring the ever-living essence out of that role? That said, Carey's performance was just thatmuch more magical than hers, so I have to give her the edge on a personal level. From what I here, Helen Mirren does great work, but nothing special in a not-outstanding film. Plus she just won a few years ago. Enjoy the nomination, Helen.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
COULD WIN: Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz
IN ORDER: 1. Christoph Waltz, 2. Christopher Plummer, 3. Woody Harrelson, 4. Stanley Tucci, 5. Matt Damon
THOUGHTS: Will Waltz win? That's a bingo! No one else could have played that role; that delightful, malevolent, dastardly manipulator of an antagonist was something Waltz slipped into like a suit, and boy, was it cut to fit him. Hans Landa was the best villain of the year, bar none (yes, I'm including the likely Best Supporting Actress winner in this as well), and the villain of the year has won this award the last couple years (Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men and Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight). He's won everything. Everything. No one can stop him. Except maybe Christopher Plummer, who's real old and has never won. But Peter O'Toole didn't win under similar circumstances a few years ago. So no, this is Waltz's, and as much as I dread his acceptance speech, I'll be so, so happy when he gets that trophy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Mo'nique, Precious
COULD WIN: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
SHOULD WIN: Mo'nique
IN ORDER: 1. Mo'nique, 2. Anna Kendrick, 3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, 4. Vera Farmiga, 5. Penelope Cruz
THOUGHTS: I've seen four of these five performances, the most in any of the acting categories, and Mo'nique's terrifying, destructive, purely evil mother is in a league of its own. Anna Kendrick is cute and winning, Vera Farmiga is convincingly sultry and independent, and Penelope Cruz sizzles in a minor way before fizzing out (she really doesn't deserve to be here over Melanie Laurent or Diane Kruger, if we're being honest). Maggie is only here because of carry-over love from Jeff Bridges. And it doesn't matter. Oscar loves a deglam and a major change of persona. Mo'nique will win, just like she's won everything else this season in spite of her non-campaign approach to the whole Oscar deal. And good for her, too.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: Inglourious Basterds
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Inglourious Basterds
IN ORDER: 1. Inglourious Basterds, 2. The Hurt Locker, 3. A Serious Man, 4. Up, 5.The Messengers
THOUGHTS: This is perhaps the toughest category to call this year. Those top two are neck-and-neck in terms of buzz and support, even though Tarantino's work is, in my opinion, markedly superior. I'm giving Tarantino a slight edge because this is where he won with Pulp Fiction, too, and I just can't see them sending him home completely empty-handed. Plus, I don't see Hurt Locker as SO well-loved that it will sweep everything (which is what some are predicting). This is just not a Titanic or a Slumdog, and the competition is steeper than it was in those cases. That said, if Hurt Locker is winning a lot of minor awards early in the evening, except it to go home with the gold at the end of the night. The other options? Meh to them all, especially Serious which had a shitty, shitty screenplay. (500) Days of Summer should have been here for its sparkling originality.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: Up in the Air
COULD WIN: Precious
SHOULD WIN: An Education
IN ORDER: 1. Up in the Air, 2. Precious, 3. An Education, 4. District 9, 5. In the Loop
THOUGHTS: There's some very, very strong work in this category. But Up in the Air keeps winning, largely as a consolation prize for Jason Reitman (see the above comment about Tarantino and Pulp Fiction). So, it will probably win here, too. But it lacks the force and weight of Precious, the cleverness and charm of An Education, and the intrigue and originality of District 9 (it's okay to call it original, since it's "adapted" from a short film that's about the same things, made by the same filmmakers), all of which would be more deserving winners in my book. In the Loop is apparently very funny, but at the end of the day, it's just lucky to be here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: Up
COULD WIN: Fantastic Mr. Fox
SHOULD WIN: Coraline
IN ORDER: 1. Up, 2. Fantastic Mr. Fox, 3. Coraline, 4. The Princess and the Frog, 5. The Secret of Kells
THOUGHTS: Pixar is powerful here. Plus, Up is also nominated for Best Picture (only the second animated film to ever make it there, the first being Disney's Beauty and the Beast). It will win, there's no real question, despite some striking support for Fox in the precursors. But the real winner in my eyes is Coraline, a delightful, well-made romp based on a children's book by Neil Gaiman (one of my favorite authors). Disney's back to 2-D with Princess, but it only got just-above-average reviews. And The Secret of Kells was a stunner (arguably the biggest shock of nomination morning) that most people still haven't seen.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
WILL WIN: The White Ribbon
COULD WIN: The Secret in Their Eyes
SHOULD WIN: I have no clue, really, but The Secret in Their Eyes sounds most appealing to me, so let's go with that
IN ORDER: 1. The White Ribbon (Germany), 2. The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina), 3. A Prophet (France), 4. Milk of Sorrow (Peru), 5. Ajami (Israel)
THOUGHTS: I haven't seen any of them, and I'm still bummed about the loss of Pan's Labyrinth in this category a few years ago, and there's a tendency to shock here. So I'm basically expecting to get this wrong, haha. But Germany's White Ribbon has nominations in other categories, which is usually a good sign and will probably be enough to push it past the murmured buzz for the Argentinian Secret.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
WILL WIN: The Cove
COULD WIN: Food Inc.
SHOULD WIN: The Cove
IN ORDER: 1. The Cove, 2. Food Inc., 3. Burma VJ, 4. Which Way Home, 5. The Most Dangerous Man in America
THOUGHTS: I know nothing about these, I'm just following general buzz and hearsay. Plus, everyone loves dolphins!
BEST ART DIRECTION
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: Sherlock Holmes
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. Sherlock Holmes, 3. Nine, 4. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, 5. The Young Victoria
THOUGHTS: Avatar is a Best Picture nominees, it's won precursors in this category, and I also expect it to win the vast majority of its technical nominations, anyway. The rest is mostly guesswork based on personal preference, since art direction is one of the technical categories I've started to pay more attention to in films since I became obsessed with the Oscars.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Avatar or Inglourious Basterds (I can't pick one, I just can't)
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. The Hurt Locker, 3. Inglourious Basterds, 4. The White Ribbon, 5. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
THOUGHTS: Again with the Avatar tech awards flush. Also it really was quite amazing cinematographically and displayed better than any film before it has what can be accomplished through a combination of computers and camerawork. The Hurt Locker could sweep, sure, but I don't see it happening, especially since there was a lot of herky-jerky handheld stuff in this one. And Inglourious Basterds made more interesting and noteworthy use of its camera and its cuts than most of the other nominees. White Ribbon did just win a major cinematography precursor. Most people see it as a four-way race between these four, still. And hey, it's cool that Harry Potter got a pretty legit nomination. Maybe the last two will get something even bigger… though probably not.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: The Young Victoria
COULD WIN: Bright Star
SHOULD WIN: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
IN ORDER: 1. The Young Victoria, 2. Bright Star, 3. Nine, 4. Coco Before Chanel, 5. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
THOUGHTS: I know nothing about this and care even less, to be honest, and there's no Best Picture nominees here, so it's tough. But Victoria has won some precursors, so perhaps it will win here, too. I just think the Imaginarium costumes look cool.
BEST EDITING
WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker
COULD WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. The Hurt Locker, 2. Avatar, 3. Inglourious Basterds, 4. District 9, 5. Precious
THOUGHTS: I'm going with Hurt Locker here because Editing and Best Picture are often linked. That said, I think Avatar has editing work that stands above the rest. The others are just here to fill slots, in my view (unless Basterds pulls off the shocker win for Picture and snags this as well… be still, my beating heart).
BEST MAKEUP
WILL WIN: Star Trek
COULD WIN: Il Divo
SHOULD WIN: District 9... oh wait, it was ROBBED... sigh, Star Trek it is then
IN ORDER: 1. Star Trek, 2. Il Divo, 3. The Young Victoria
THOUGHTS: Why isn't District 9 here? That's legitimately the only thought I have about this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: Up
COULD WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Up
IN ORDER. 1. Up, 2. Avatar, 3. The Hurt Locker, 4. Fantastic Mr. Fox, 5. Sherlock Holmes
THOUGHTS: The composer for Up is Michael Giacchino, also the composer for Lost, so he's a super-deserving winner in my book. He's won a ton of precursors, and he also wrote the score for Star Trek, which was well-liked, too. Essentially, this is his year, unless we see a true tech sweep from Avatar or a true sweep sweep from Hurt Locker. They would not deserve it in this case.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
COULD WIN: "Take It All," Nine
SHOULD WIN: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
IN ORDER: 1. "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart, 2. "Take It All," Nine, 3. "Down in New Orleans," The Princess and the Frog, 4. "Almost There," The Princess and the Frog, 5. "Loin de Paname," Paris 36
THOUGHTS: What the fuck is Paris 36? And why does this category suck so hard this year? Even the song with the most appeal, "The Weary Kind," is still lackluster. Though it was much maligned, I was personally a fan of the other big Nine number ("Cinema Italiano") over the still-simmering but somehow ineffective "Take It All." The Disney songs will cancel each other out. And again, what the fuck is Paris 36?
BEST SOUND EDITING
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. The Hurt Locker, 3. Star Trek, 4. Inglourious Basterds, 5. Up
THOUGHTS: Again, will it be the Avatar tech sweep? Or the Hurt Locker general sweep? I don't know enough about sound to judge these, so no further comment.
BEST SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. The Hurt Locker, 3. Star Trek, 4. Inglourious Basterds, 5. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
THOUGHTS: Transformers is this year's ridiculous-film-that-never-should-have-been-nominated-that-snuck-in-a-small-category. Otherwise, see the comments for Sound Editing.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: Avatar
COULD WIN: NOBODY ELSE
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
IN ORDER: 1. Avatar, 2. District 9, 3. Star Trek
THOUGHTS: Come on, now. This is so easy it almost isn't worth it to write commentary. Even if you LOATHED Avatar, you know it deserves to win here. They spent twelve years developing this amazingness, and the other two big sci-fi films of the year can't hold a candle to it, really. If one of them somehow miraculously upsets, it will likely be the night's biggest travesty, and I don't use that word lightly here.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
WILL WIN: A Matter of Loaf and Death
COULD WIN: Logorama
SHOULD WIN: The Lady and the Reaper
IN ORDER: 1. A Matter of Loaf and Death, 2. Logorama, 3. The Lady and the Reaper, 4. Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty, 5. French Roast
THOUGHTS: I actually saw these this year thanks to the wonders of the internet. And while Wallace and Gromit will prevail here because they always do, and while Logorama is getting critical buzz for its creativity and its message, the only one that caused me any sheer delight was The Lady and the Reaper. The final two are cute but unimpressive.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
WILL WIN: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
COULD WIN: China's Unnatural Disaster
SHOULD WIN: no idea, but I'll go with Last Truck for its timeliness
IN ORDER: 1. The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, 2. China's Unnatural Disaster, 3. Rabbit à la Berlin, 4. Music by Prudence, 5. The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
THOUGHTS: Who knows? But Last Truck has the ONLY buzz in this category, and it's timely (I guess in the way Up in the Air is timely), so I'm going with it. [EDITED ON 03/04: Apparently there's also a lot of love for China's Unnatural Disaster, but I get the vibe that it's too last-minute, and Last Truck is also very AMERICA!! in comparison, which probably-maybe still gives it the edge. Honestly, these short categories are notoriously difficult to predict, so cut me some slack if I eff this one up, lol.]
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
WILL WIN: The Door
COULD WIN: Miracle Fish
SHOULD WIN: again, no idea, but let's go with Instead of Abracadabra since it's apparently a comedy about a magician--fun, right?
IN ORDER: 1. The Door, 2. Miracle Fish, 3. The New Tenants, 4. Instead of Abracadabra, 5. Kavi
THOUGHTS: Je ne sais pas. Basing this on other people's predictions, on buzz, and on what I've read about them (mostly just synopses, if we're being honest).
Well, there you have it. Twenty-four categories later, and I'm (probably, maybe) finally done with my Oscar predictions for the year. Tune in Sunday to see how well I do (or how poorly, but let's be optimistic, please).