Caravan's Lost (or How to Survive the Next Year as a Rockets Fan)
Dear friends, I write to you in a time of crisis, for our Rockets are crumbling in front of our very eyes. It is truly a sign of tough times when our best center is out for the year, our new starting center has never played NBA ball, and we are forced to sign Pops Mensah-Bonsu as our 2nd string center (youch).
This year is a wash.
The only saving grace is that Rick Adelman thrives in these tough situations. No one in their right mind should want the Rockets to tank. You can never build a culture of winning without a modicum of integrity.
Instead, its going to be a scrappier, leaner, (smaller), quicker Rockets team. And its going to be fun to watch. Gone are the days when Ron Artest shoots 4-20 as the rest of the team looks on in exasperation. Or when T-Mac tries to relive the glory days with one 20 foot brick after another. And, unfortunately, gone are the days when we could have faith that our premiere center was not injury prone and that he was just unlucky because he had angered some evil Chinese spirit.
Essentially the long term of the future boils down to the stock that we, and by extrapolation other free agents in the summer of 2010, place in Yao Ming's ability to lead.
It is almost a certainty that Yao, already faced with the looming threat of never having being able to play the game at all, much less at an All-Star level, will not exercise his 2010-2011 ETO (early termination option), deferring our decision on his long-term future for one year.
And it is almost a certainty that T-Mac, having lost the faith of most Houston fans, will leave next summer in an effort to win somewhere else. And that, like Allen Iverson, I suspect few teams will throw the kind of money he wants at him.
That leaves us a giant wad of cash to play with.
The big three names are of course, D-Wade, LeBron, and Chris Bosh. These are the young superstars of tomorrow. Now LeBron won't look twice at Houston, thats a fact. Bosh is a Texas kid and we may have a shot at landing him, though he would displace Scola and Battier, who are much more effective at the forward positions than their stats imply. That leaves D-Wade as the only truly marquee player out of that young bunch who would demand a max figure. And Houston, unfortunately, doesn't have the mass market appeal of an LA or NYC. I would be surprised (pleasantly) if he were to even consider it. However, what he would have already in place is an excellent supporting cast and an excellent #2 in Yao Ming.
Other superstar marquee players include Dirk (who will almost certainly remain in Dallas), Amar'e (who is a talent but an absolute cancer), and Paul Pierce (who almost certainly is on the decline). Steve Nash has taken himself out of the game with a two year, $22 million extension in Phoenix. Good for him, but unfortunately that team is going nowhere.
The next tier of players are the All-Stars, who will almost certainly demand max contracts or close to that figure from somewhere, and will not be worth a full max contract in this market. This group includes Michael Redd, Joe Johnson, Manu Ginobili, Carlos Boozer, and a few others. Manu is the most enticing but he is already on the decline and I doubt he will leave San Antonio. Redd is intriguing but he is injury prone and a non-factor on defense. And Boozer is a bad fit for the same reasons (and then some) that Bosh is. Ray Allen probably falls in this category as well but he, like Manu, is on the decline and a long term deal would hamstring our future. Not much love here. Rudy Gay, oddly enough, would be an interesting possibility and he falls in this category. He hasn't shown the poise to be a playoff caliber defender or to carry a team with his scoring. But his talent is unmistakeable, and unfortunately this is why some team will throw too much money at him.
The next tier are the time-tested starters, some with playoff championship experience, some with untapped potential. These include Marcus Camby, Brad Miller, T.J. Ford, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, Raja Bell, Josh Howard (if the Mavs don't exercise their team option), Travis Outlaw, Rajon Rondo, Roger Mason, and a few others. Mike Miller is coming off a bad year; of these, Roger Mason is probably one of the better options (and perhaps worth a mid-level type of deal). Rondo would be a bad move as Brooks is coming into his own as a dynamic player (and Rondo is a cancer). Tyrus Thomas falls in this category as well, but he is too erratic to be anything more than a gamble. There's a whole host of other people in this category.
The ideal situation is that we replace T-Mac with another 2, preferably a Wade, but this is for obvious reasons unlikely to happen. Bosh may be another signing that could help but we would have to trade Scola or Landry to clear the logjam. Remember that Ariza is really more of a 3 than a 2 and that when he and Battier share the court, we really are playing two 3's. Out of the rest, I would love to land Manu for a shorter deal or Rudy Gay for about half the max, but I doubt either would happen.
The rest of the free agents have their ups and downs and honestly, probably not even worth the space writing about them. What will probably happen is that with that cash, Morey will shore up positions with unlikely stars, use that cash to extend some of the existing players on rookie contracts, and try one more year around Yao. After all, you have to take a chance on Yao, he is a singular once-in-a-lifetime talent and to let him slip away or give up on him would be idiotic.
Going to spend a quick moment on our pickups this year and what they mean for the future.
Ariza was our most high profile pickup. He is more of a loss for the Lakers than he is a gain for us this next year. The Lakers will miss his hustle, lateral quickness, and accurate shooting from the corners. Instead, they get a wild man on defense who just as often as not will destroy the offensive game plan, Kobe/Phil or no. I just question whether this was the right time to go out and get him, when we don't know which players we will be building around in 2-3 years. If Yao is healthy, then Ariza is an excellent option; he will develop the mental discipline with time to stay on the hustle and not make dumb plays. If Yao is done, then we wasted a good chunk of change on someone who is entirely dependent on others to make a difference on offense (somewhat like Battier).
David Andersen is an intriguing option as he can play a more wide open game with his mid range jumper and his capability to play as a running big. He will be a great fit for our team next year and an intriguing backup for Yao.
Chase Budinger is a steal as a 2nd round pick; I expect him to be the most consistent and most available rookie next year. Expect him to score between 8-10 ppg if he gets the playing time. He is a strong scorer and a smart player and will be a valuable rotation player if he gains experience.
Pops is a likeable enough guy but this is a signing of desperation more than anything else.
Jermaine Taylor is intriguing; he appears to have the talent and potential to be a strong scorer but his summer league play was inconsistent and underwhelming. We will have to see how he pans out but hopefully he will develop into a solid backup SG.
And finally James White; I can't figure out why Morey keeps him around. He usually has a good reason; I just fail to see it.
Imagine if we kept V-Span, who has been killing it in Europe, and played him with a coach who would know how to use him instead of the offensively retarded (but very funny) JVG.
Anyway, Brooks came into his own in the playoffs and I am excited to see what he can do. Scola and Battier are tireless workers and I know they will give their best. Dorsey has been a fiend on the boards and I hope that he can be a valuable big off the bench at the 4 and 5. I think Landry may have hit his peak. I am REALLY intrigued by Lowry, who has been an excellent backup PG and a phenomenal defender. He just needs to develop his jumpshot.
Its going to be a year of transition, and its going to be a little painful, but if we can get this group of young'uns to grow around each other and come back in 2010 with a healthy Yao and a marquee free agent (or go early decade Blazers style and get 2 or 3 solid veterans to shore up our weak spots), this could be a good few years for us. I believe!
This year is a wash.
The only saving grace is that Rick Adelman thrives in these tough situations. No one in their right mind should want the Rockets to tank. You can never build a culture of winning without a modicum of integrity.
Instead, its going to be a scrappier, leaner, (smaller), quicker Rockets team. And its going to be fun to watch. Gone are the days when Ron Artest shoots 4-20 as the rest of the team looks on in exasperation. Or when T-Mac tries to relive the glory days with one 20 foot brick after another. And, unfortunately, gone are the days when we could have faith that our premiere center was not injury prone and that he was just unlucky because he had angered some evil Chinese spirit.
Essentially the long term of the future boils down to the stock that we, and by extrapolation other free agents in the summer of 2010, place in Yao Ming's ability to lead.
It is almost a certainty that Yao, already faced with the looming threat of never having being able to play the game at all, much less at an All-Star level, will not exercise his 2010-2011 ETO (early termination option), deferring our decision on his long-term future for one year.
And it is almost a certainty that T-Mac, having lost the faith of most Houston fans, will leave next summer in an effort to win somewhere else. And that, like Allen Iverson, I suspect few teams will throw the kind of money he wants at him.
That leaves us a giant wad of cash to play with.
The big three names are of course, D-Wade, LeBron, and Chris Bosh. These are the young superstars of tomorrow. Now LeBron won't look twice at Houston, thats a fact. Bosh is a Texas kid and we may have a shot at landing him, though he would displace Scola and Battier, who are much more effective at the forward positions than their stats imply. That leaves D-Wade as the only truly marquee player out of that young bunch who would demand a max figure. And Houston, unfortunately, doesn't have the mass market appeal of an LA or NYC. I would be surprised (pleasantly) if he were to even consider it. However, what he would have already in place is an excellent supporting cast and an excellent #2 in Yao Ming.
Other superstar marquee players include Dirk (who will almost certainly remain in Dallas), Amar'e (who is a talent but an absolute cancer), and Paul Pierce (who almost certainly is on the decline). Steve Nash has taken himself out of the game with a two year, $22 million extension in Phoenix. Good for him, but unfortunately that team is going nowhere.
The next tier of players are the All-Stars, who will almost certainly demand max contracts or close to that figure from somewhere, and will not be worth a full max contract in this market. This group includes Michael Redd, Joe Johnson, Manu Ginobili, Carlos Boozer, and a few others. Manu is the most enticing but he is already on the decline and I doubt he will leave San Antonio. Redd is intriguing but he is injury prone and a non-factor on defense. And Boozer is a bad fit for the same reasons (and then some) that Bosh is. Ray Allen probably falls in this category as well but he, like Manu, is on the decline and a long term deal would hamstring our future. Not much love here. Rudy Gay, oddly enough, would be an interesting possibility and he falls in this category. He hasn't shown the poise to be a playoff caliber defender or to carry a team with his scoring. But his talent is unmistakeable, and unfortunately this is why some team will throw too much money at him.
The next tier are the time-tested starters, some with playoff championship experience, some with untapped potential. These include Marcus Camby, Brad Miller, T.J. Ford, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, Raja Bell, Josh Howard (if the Mavs don't exercise their team option), Travis Outlaw, Rajon Rondo, Roger Mason, and a few others. Mike Miller is coming off a bad year; of these, Roger Mason is probably one of the better options (and perhaps worth a mid-level type of deal). Rondo would be a bad move as Brooks is coming into his own as a dynamic player (and Rondo is a cancer). Tyrus Thomas falls in this category as well, but he is too erratic to be anything more than a gamble. There's a whole host of other people in this category.
The ideal situation is that we replace T-Mac with another 2, preferably a Wade, but this is for obvious reasons unlikely to happen. Bosh may be another signing that could help but we would have to trade Scola or Landry to clear the logjam. Remember that Ariza is really more of a 3 than a 2 and that when he and Battier share the court, we really are playing two 3's. Out of the rest, I would love to land Manu for a shorter deal or Rudy Gay for about half the max, but I doubt either would happen.
The rest of the free agents have their ups and downs and honestly, probably not even worth the space writing about them. What will probably happen is that with that cash, Morey will shore up positions with unlikely stars, use that cash to extend some of the existing players on rookie contracts, and try one more year around Yao. After all, you have to take a chance on Yao, he is a singular once-in-a-lifetime talent and to let him slip away or give up on him would be idiotic.
Going to spend a quick moment on our pickups this year and what they mean for the future.
Ariza was our most high profile pickup. He is more of a loss for the Lakers than he is a gain for us this next year. The Lakers will miss his hustle, lateral quickness, and accurate shooting from the corners. Instead, they get a wild man on defense who just as often as not will destroy the offensive game plan, Kobe/Phil or no. I just question whether this was the right time to go out and get him, when we don't know which players we will be building around in 2-3 years. If Yao is healthy, then Ariza is an excellent option; he will develop the mental discipline with time to stay on the hustle and not make dumb plays. If Yao is done, then we wasted a good chunk of change on someone who is entirely dependent on others to make a difference on offense (somewhat like Battier).
David Andersen is an intriguing option as he can play a more wide open game with his mid range jumper and his capability to play as a running big. He will be a great fit for our team next year and an intriguing backup for Yao.
Chase Budinger is a steal as a 2nd round pick; I expect him to be the most consistent and most available rookie next year. Expect him to score between 8-10 ppg if he gets the playing time. He is a strong scorer and a smart player and will be a valuable rotation player if he gains experience.
Pops is a likeable enough guy but this is a signing of desperation more than anything else.
Jermaine Taylor is intriguing; he appears to have the talent and potential to be a strong scorer but his summer league play was inconsistent and underwhelming. We will have to see how he pans out but hopefully he will develop into a solid backup SG.
And finally James White; I can't figure out why Morey keeps him around. He usually has a good reason; I just fail to see it.
Imagine if we kept V-Span, who has been killing it in Europe, and played him with a coach who would know how to use him instead of the offensively retarded (but very funny) JVG.
Anyway, Brooks came into his own in the playoffs and I am excited to see what he can do. Scola and Battier are tireless workers and I know they will give their best. Dorsey has been a fiend on the boards and I hope that he can be a valuable big off the bench at the 4 and 5. I think Landry may have hit his peak. I am REALLY intrigued by Lowry, who has been an excellent backup PG and a phenomenal defender. He just needs to develop his jumpshot.
Its going to be a year of transition, and its going to be a little painful, but if we can get this group of young'uns to grow around each other and come back in 2010 with a healthy Yao and a marquee free agent (or go early decade Blazers style and get 2 or 3 solid veterans to shore up our weak spots), this could be a good few years for us. I believe!