EMERGENCY BLOG POST: YAO EDITION
I had been so busy with work that I had totally neglected this blog, since Rockets news had died down a bit and other teams had made big moves. But this is officially crisis mode. The Rockets are now facing a very frightening possibility of becoming a lottery team. Obviously there are much worse things going around in the world today, but lets ignore that for one second and panic together. Strength in numbers!
Lets start with the obvious - T-Mac will in all likelihood miss the first couple of months of the season. His salary is so astronomical that it was impossible to move him without taking crap in return. And the Rockets, unlike the late 90's under Carroll Dawson, have been very prudent in their moves to avoid bad contracts and bum talent.
And then the shocking news today, that Yao Ming may be done for the season... and then some. This certainly crossed any Rockets fan's mind when we all found out, in the middle of a near upset of the Lakers, that Yao had broken the same foot he broke last year. And my stomach hit my feet again for the second straight year. Then the optimist in me thought well, if we can get a decent backup center and limit his minutes, it will be fine because it's a stress related injury and we can limit his minutes. Now, his foot hasn't healed at all, and there is a low but non-zero possibility that it may be career threatening. This turns any hope the Rockets had of contending next year on its head.
More importantly in the short term, what does this mean for Ron Artest?? Houston had fallen in love with Artest's zaniness and intensity (not so much his shot selection), while he had fallen in love with his coach, teammates, and his many fans. It seemed like a certainty he would stay. But Artest is a competitor, and he is not going to sit around in a rebuilding situation like he did for years in Sacto. In all likelihood, this is the last we see of Ron Artest as a Rocket. I guess it saves me the $60 I was going to plop on an Artest jersey if he re-signed.
Now how does this affect our free agent situation??
So we already addressed Artest - if it becomes certain Yao/T-Mac are gonna be done for most of the season, no one can fault Artest for not walking.
The other big loss is Dikembe, but I think everyone has come to grips with that, at least partially. What an amazing human being - I will miss his Cookie Monster voice.
The big free agent decision now is Von Wafer, and it comes down to this. He is a headcase (which was known, bringing him in) but a tremendous talent and if he can put aside his ego to play, he would be a good pickup at 2-3 mill a year. I have a feeling that he is going to try to play the market (rightfully so), but I also have a feeling that he will find few takers in this economy. I think given the rest of our situation that we don't overspend on a player who has little shot of being a long-term starter. Perhaps a much better replacement would be Jermaine Taylor, who averaged 26.2 ppg this past season in college. If Von Wafer gives us any trouble, we can take solace in knowing we have a similar player in Taylor who can contribute right away.
Now the people that this hurts the most is our veteran leader Battier and our underappreciated workhorse Scola. These guys came to win, and they play day-in day-out with a ferocity and passion that more than offsets their near-total lack of athleticism. Battier is here with us for a couple of years, and I am A-OK with that. But if this news about Yao is true, it may be time to send him soon to a contender (for his sake) and get some picks/talent in return. Hard to justify keeping a glue guy around when there are no parts around him to stick. I love Battier, but if the worst case scenario about Yao is truth, then I think its important to face these realities.
The other X-factor is Scola, who has come pretty cheap so far but will command a much more beefy salary in 2010. He is an invaluable piece of the puzzle and he has earned the love of most Houston fans with his ugly-but-effective post game but again, at his age, he deserves a real shot at a title before he becomes an also-ran, having spent the time he did holed up with Tau Ceramica. But he is a 2010 free agent so we can defer that decision for a year with some more sure news about where the Yao/T-Mac situation is going. Still though, if the worst-case is true, it may be prudent to trade him as an expiring rental and get picks/young talent in return a-la Portland.
In 2010, we will face many more huge decisions. The smaller decisions, besides Scola, include Landry (who will likely not command much more of a salary given that we have probably seen his ceiling), Lowry (who knows?? Not much demand for a great defensive, poor shooting guard), and Chuck Hayes, who some crazy team may actually throw money at but otherwise would be great value at the 1-2 million he commands. Barry will likely retire.
So that leaves the two biggest decisions - Yao Ming, and Tracy McGrady. At this point, I think every Rockets fan would be content to let T-Mac walk, having seen the highs and lows of his game and his attitude (the lows being this past year, the highs being far in the past). But what to do about Yao? He is a singular talent, STILL the best center in the league (don't believe me? Look how worthless Howard was in the paint against the Lakers and how dominant Yao is one-on-one against any center in the league), but this injury leaves a lot up in the air. Is he still going to be a max-contract player? Is he going to be in the league at all? Will he be willing to take a pay cut? Is this even worth the gamble?
Remember this is the much-vaunted 2010 free agent class that people have been talking about for 3 years now. But the reality is no star would want to come into such a questionable situation in Houston where the footing is constantly uncertain, and honestly Lebron, Dirk, and most other marquee names are not going to even entertain Houston as a destination. What it comes down to is we need to think like Portland, accumulate draft picks, draft well, and build from the ground up. There will likely be no superstars waiting to be scooped up at a reasonable price.
What I'm saying is a dirty word to any rabid Rockets fan... this may be the time to rebuild.
We need to rebuild and find a situation in which we can be relatively certain which players take the court on a day-to-day basis. We need to rebuild with Adelman and Daryl Morey at the head and put together an athletic, running, defensively efficicent team. And a lot of the pieces are already here. Brooks has made huge strides and is a deadly shooter, fearless slasher, and is becoming good at directing traffic on offense. On defense, he has learned not to get stuck in one-on-one situations and to rely on the superb help defense. Lowry has always been an elite defender, and he is becoming more reliable as a floor general, though still a poor shooter. Landry has probably hit his ceiling but he will continue to gain confidence and is a valuable piece. Now we have Chase Budinger (this guy was supposed to be a LOTTERY pick last year!), who I am skeptical about but has the potential to be a Mike Miller, and Sergio Llull, a relative unknown but a very solid PG in Spain. It may be worth it to keep Hayes and Wafer around, and Joey Dorsey may end up being a valuable backup big man.
But that leaves a lot of big holes, the biggest being the spot previously occupied by Yao. It leaves us with a dearth of wings (certainly not the problem now) and with a dearth of real bigs (certainly is the problem right now, aside from Scolandry).
This may be too early to press the panic button, but it certainly may be time to start moving assets, think about the future, and trust in Morey to draft well and build from the ground up. The model for sucess is Portland, who are contenders built from the ground up without having to rely on making trades that leave you saddled with bad contracts or have you giving up valuable draft picks (and you wonder why the Seven Seconds or Less Suns faded so fast? It hurts my head to think how good they could have been.) It may be the time to make a move to get a Ricky Rubio, to get a young star to build around.
And, sadly enough, this may portend the end of the big man as we know it. Look how ineffective Howard was against the Lakers, a much smaller but more athletic team. And its clear that the genetic anomalies that are the Yao Mings, the Rik Smits, the Manute Bols, the Bill Waltons, the Greg Odens and Andrew Bynums... these guys are not built to last. Its not their fault, blame it on their freakish genes, but the era of the dominant center is coming to an end. Hasheem Thabeet won't change that. And as much as it hurts me to say it, the Pau Gasols of the world may be the new model for big men. Not necessarily physically imposing but talent and able to be effective from a variety of spots.
Its too early to give up on next season. We are stuck with T-Mac and Yao, injuries or not, so might as well make the best of it and hold out a little hope that we may be able to make one last run with this crew. Because our supporting cast is there. We are just waiting for our stars to take the court. Same old story, I suppose.
Lets start with the obvious - T-Mac will in all likelihood miss the first couple of months of the season. His salary is so astronomical that it was impossible to move him without taking crap in return. And the Rockets, unlike the late 90's under Carroll Dawson, have been very prudent in their moves to avoid bad contracts and bum talent.
And then the shocking news today, that Yao Ming may be done for the season... and then some. This certainly crossed any Rockets fan's mind when we all found out, in the middle of a near upset of the Lakers, that Yao had broken the same foot he broke last year. And my stomach hit my feet again for the second straight year. Then the optimist in me thought well, if we can get a decent backup center and limit his minutes, it will be fine because it's a stress related injury and we can limit his minutes. Now, his foot hasn't healed at all, and there is a low but non-zero possibility that it may be career threatening. This turns any hope the Rockets had of contending next year on its head.
More importantly in the short term, what does this mean for Ron Artest?? Houston had fallen in love with Artest's zaniness and intensity (not so much his shot selection), while he had fallen in love with his coach, teammates, and his many fans. It seemed like a certainty he would stay. But Artest is a competitor, and he is not going to sit around in a rebuilding situation like he did for years in Sacto. In all likelihood, this is the last we see of Ron Artest as a Rocket. I guess it saves me the $60 I was going to plop on an Artest jersey if he re-signed.
Now how does this affect our free agent situation??
So we already addressed Artest - if it becomes certain Yao/T-Mac are gonna be done for most of the season, no one can fault Artest for not walking.
The other big loss is Dikembe, but I think everyone has come to grips with that, at least partially. What an amazing human being - I will miss his Cookie Monster voice.
The big free agent decision now is Von Wafer, and it comes down to this. He is a headcase (which was known, bringing him in) but a tremendous talent and if he can put aside his ego to play, he would be a good pickup at 2-3 mill a year. I have a feeling that he is going to try to play the market (rightfully so), but I also have a feeling that he will find few takers in this economy. I think given the rest of our situation that we don't overspend on a player who has little shot of being a long-term starter. Perhaps a much better replacement would be Jermaine Taylor, who averaged 26.2 ppg this past season in college. If Von Wafer gives us any trouble, we can take solace in knowing we have a similar player in Taylor who can contribute right away.
Now the people that this hurts the most is our veteran leader Battier and our underappreciated workhorse Scola. These guys came to win, and they play day-in day-out with a ferocity and passion that more than offsets their near-total lack of athleticism. Battier is here with us for a couple of years, and I am A-OK with that. But if this news about Yao is true, it may be time to send him soon to a contender (for his sake) and get some picks/talent in return. Hard to justify keeping a glue guy around when there are no parts around him to stick. I love Battier, but if the worst case scenario about Yao is truth, then I think its important to face these realities.
The other X-factor is Scola, who has come pretty cheap so far but will command a much more beefy salary in 2010. He is an invaluable piece of the puzzle and he has earned the love of most Houston fans with his ugly-but-effective post game but again, at his age, he deserves a real shot at a title before he becomes an also-ran, having spent the time he did holed up with Tau Ceramica. But he is a 2010 free agent so we can defer that decision for a year with some more sure news about where the Yao/T-Mac situation is going. Still though, if the worst-case is true, it may be prudent to trade him as an expiring rental and get picks/young talent in return a-la Portland.
In 2010, we will face many more huge decisions. The smaller decisions, besides Scola, include Landry (who will likely not command much more of a salary given that we have probably seen his ceiling), Lowry (who knows?? Not much demand for a great defensive, poor shooting guard), and Chuck Hayes, who some crazy team may actually throw money at but otherwise would be great value at the 1-2 million he commands. Barry will likely retire.
So that leaves the two biggest decisions - Yao Ming, and Tracy McGrady. At this point, I think every Rockets fan would be content to let T-Mac walk, having seen the highs and lows of his game and his attitude (the lows being this past year, the highs being far in the past). But what to do about Yao? He is a singular talent, STILL the best center in the league (don't believe me? Look how worthless Howard was in the paint against the Lakers and how dominant Yao is one-on-one against any center in the league), but this injury leaves a lot up in the air. Is he still going to be a max-contract player? Is he going to be in the league at all? Will he be willing to take a pay cut? Is this even worth the gamble?
Remember this is the much-vaunted 2010 free agent class that people have been talking about for 3 years now. But the reality is no star would want to come into such a questionable situation in Houston where the footing is constantly uncertain, and honestly Lebron, Dirk, and most other marquee names are not going to even entertain Houston as a destination. What it comes down to is we need to think like Portland, accumulate draft picks, draft well, and build from the ground up. There will likely be no superstars waiting to be scooped up at a reasonable price.
What I'm saying is a dirty word to any rabid Rockets fan... this may be the time to rebuild.
We need to rebuild and find a situation in which we can be relatively certain which players take the court on a day-to-day basis. We need to rebuild with Adelman and Daryl Morey at the head and put together an athletic, running, defensively efficicent team. And a lot of the pieces are already here. Brooks has made huge strides and is a deadly shooter, fearless slasher, and is becoming good at directing traffic on offense. On defense, he has learned not to get stuck in one-on-one situations and to rely on the superb help defense. Lowry has always been an elite defender, and he is becoming more reliable as a floor general, though still a poor shooter. Landry has probably hit his ceiling but he will continue to gain confidence and is a valuable piece. Now we have Chase Budinger (this guy was supposed to be a LOTTERY pick last year!), who I am skeptical about but has the potential to be a Mike Miller, and Sergio Llull, a relative unknown but a very solid PG in Spain. It may be worth it to keep Hayes and Wafer around, and Joey Dorsey may end up being a valuable backup big man.
But that leaves a lot of big holes, the biggest being the spot previously occupied by Yao. It leaves us with a dearth of wings (certainly not the problem now) and with a dearth of real bigs (certainly is the problem right now, aside from Scolandry).
This may be too early to press the panic button, but it certainly may be time to start moving assets, think about the future, and trust in Morey to draft well and build from the ground up. The model for sucess is Portland, who are contenders built from the ground up without having to rely on making trades that leave you saddled with bad contracts or have you giving up valuable draft picks (and you wonder why the Seven Seconds or Less Suns faded so fast? It hurts my head to think how good they could have been.) It may be the time to make a move to get a Ricky Rubio, to get a young star to build around.
And, sadly enough, this may portend the end of the big man as we know it. Look how ineffective Howard was against the Lakers, a much smaller but more athletic team. And its clear that the genetic anomalies that are the Yao Mings, the Rik Smits, the Manute Bols, the Bill Waltons, the Greg Odens and Andrew Bynums... these guys are not built to last. Its not their fault, blame it on their freakish genes, but the era of the dominant center is coming to an end. Hasheem Thabeet won't change that. And as much as it hurts me to say it, the Pau Gasols of the world may be the new model for big men. Not necessarily physically imposing but talent and able to be effective from a variety of spots.
Its too early to give up on next season. We are stuck with T-Mac and Yao, injuries or not, so might as well make the best of it and hold out a little hope that we may be able to make one last run with this crew. Because our supporting cast is there. We are just waiting for our stars to take the court. Same old story, I suppose.