Random Imagined Future #1
The Internet and a Possible Future
The Internet might be more revolutionary and more of a boon that we think. The reason for this is simple: the Internet is a meritocracy.
On the Internet, the only way to succeed is to be GOOD. How do webcomics get popular? People see them, they like them, they tell their friends, they post links like these (www.questionablecontent.net, www.qwantz.com, www.bohemiandrive.com) on their websites and Livejournals and more people see them and like them. The Internet is a mass word-of-mouth machine. The same principle explains why so many people saw the Star Wars kid and why so many people have heard of Livejournal.
Flash videos are definitely the domain of the Internet now. As technology both improves and becomes more affordable, the Internet will slowly take over other forms of entertainment. The Internet and Internet-like technologies are already taking over the music and radio business. Eventually, the Internet will become such a force through downloading and linking and file sharing and MP3 burning that clubs and other real-world places that play music will have to conform to playing music that has become popular solely over the Internet. The meritocracy will apply because eventually there will be sites that are to music what albinoblacksheep is to Flash video, and it won't matter if you've got some big record company behind you or you're just recording in your basement; if your music is good, people will listen. (Considering what record companies have been doing to music, maybe having one behind you will become a hindrance. Or maybe record companies will have to go back to what they once were more like to music artists - resources.)
As technology improves etc., the same thing will apply to, eventually, television, video games, and film. Probably in that order; it isn't too expensive to make a sitcom or TV-style drama; it takes some organization, but if people can do underground and guerilla theatre, it won't be that hard for groups of artists to get together and make a serial show that kicks the ass of the dreck that's on most of TV now. As far as video games and film, in order to compete with wealthy production companies, home-graphics programs will have to come a long way. As well, in order to outdo the theatrical experience, technology will have to introduce a way to project film from the Internet onto your living room wall.
In fact, with enough technological advance, nearly all live forms of entertainment could become obsolete. Why go to a concert when you can have a holographic orchestra in front of you playing and sound coming from each instrument that's indistinguishable from the real thing? It's a bit science-fiction, but we all know now that just cause something is currently sci-fi, doesn't mean it won't happen eventually.
Eventually everything that consists of information and not physical matter will become the domain of the Internet. Poetry, art, news, dictionaries, etc., will all find their best form online. The meritocracy aspect will conceivably and eventually see that only the news sources that constantly prove themselves as being honest and all-inclusive will be frequented; eventually there will probably be sites that independently evaluate other fact-based sites - perhaps government sites, university sites. Word-of-mouth will ensure that sites that deserve trust receive trust.
This will change the economy. (Duh.) It will no longer be in any way assuredly lucrative to work in any entertainment or information industry; there won't be the businesses and corporations in place to ensure the cameramen and folk get salaries. There are only three ways to make money on the Internet: advertising, merchandise, and donations. Donations can only be trusted so far, and you better be damn popular to live off of them. Merchandise is a little more reliable (there are webcomic artists who make a living now solely on their merchandising.) Advertising will have to pass a kind of test; the more intrusive it is, the better your online TV show or news site will have to be for people to be willing to endure the ads. Advertising will be the biggest challenge to the meritocracy of the Internet; but eventually only sites that keep people coming back through quality and word-of-mouth will be able to afford advertising.
Careers that deal only in information will move online as well. Salespeople, psychologists, architects, teachers... they all could, given sufficient technology, do all their work over the 'net. Salespeople can video-communicate with potential customers who come to their sites. Psychologists can video-conference if the technology is good enough. Architects can send their designs holographically and make adjustments with the clicks of buttons. Teachers, well you get the point. Only careers that HAVE to deal with the physical world - medicine, construction, crafts, etc. - can't completely go online.
With all this movement online, who will need many storefronts anymore? Offices? Universities? Even grocery stores can eventually conceivably present all their food online for you to see and even smell (there currently exist very primitive smell-o-Internet technologies, honestly) the food you're ordering. All those people getting fired from the music business can join the massive delivery business. Want to make cookies tonight? Don't have chocolate chips? Go online and order them and they'll be delivered in an hour. Perhaps, much like current mail carriers, there will be regular stops by massive trucks to individual neighborhoods, three, four times a day, delivering all the stuff people ordered. Or hovertrucks! Heh.
Technology will improve so that you will be able to communicate with more trust with other people online. Video will make the worry that "LUVME92395" is actually some sleazy old man a thing of the past, and who knows, there could be websites that use IP addresses and other technologies to register whether that nice-seeming man on the video chat is actually a serial killer or that innocent-seeming online bakery store doesn't deliver as it promises. Word-of-mouth meritocracy will apply to people as well. Online dating will become much more reliable and acceptable; after all, you're much more likely to find that perfect match for yourself among the millions online than in the dozens you meet in reality.
People will suddenly gain much more time through all this innovation. No more commutes, no more shopping trips unless you want to, etc. In actually, all this Internet will free up more time for people to do real world stuff. Sure, there will be couch potatoes who do nothing but watch computer-generated Star Wars fanfiction movies. (And, it follows, Star Wars computer-generated fanporn. INTERACTIVE Star Wars computer-generated fanporn.) But eventually, because people have so much more access to other people, they will be able to find other people who enjoy whatever activities they do. If you like hiking, you will find people online that you would want to hike with. You will be able to find a dance party any hour of the day (assuming you live near other people and not in the countryside. The Internet could make it easier for people to live farther apart, or make it more profitable to live closer together.) And eventually people will have portable Internet that can do everything a desktop computer could do. All information is available everywhere; there is barely any need for PLACES that correspond to certain things. You can watch a movie with your friends anywhere, order food to anywhere (tracking devices in delivery trucks), do practically anything. With enough technology we will eventually be freed from our homes.
This has been an incredibly optimistic Internet broadcast that's ignored problems like laws, hackers, and herd mentality, thank you for reading.