The national primary that wasn't
Originally this began as a comment in orange's blog, but I got off on such a tangeant I felt it appropriate not to soapbox in someone else's back yard.
In respect to the Tuesday primary orgy, I actually presumed that it would be close on the left. I had hope that someone *cough* Obama *cough* would take the lead, but my gut predicted a near 50/50 split. I did expect at least some kind of demonstrable though statistically meaningless lead and was surprised to find it to be as truly close as it was.
The Republican round shocked me to the core. Huckabee just didn't smack of a solid candidate in my world. He was, and ultimately still is, a niche candidate. But I presumed from prior contests that the electorate had figured that fact out and that he was doomed to be an Edwards, singificant, but not a contender. In the end both he and Romney ended up as a sort of siamese twin second-tier candidate. Both appealed to very significant sub-factions of the conservative uber-faction of the republican movement. Both seemed to have charisma that outshined McCain's dry white-bread rhetoric. And both seemed doomed to stubbornly fall together in the embrace of a mutual unwillingness to bow out which may just have offered Mr. Limbaugh a shot at a conservative candidate. I think between them they have elliminated any chance of a far right conservative on top of the republican ticket. If I were Romney, I'd be supremely pissed off.
For died-in-the-wool liberals like myself this is both good and bad. On the one hand McCain stands a greater chance at grabbing independants and even conservative dems. It is a serious strength in American national politics where the strength of a candidate is measured by how big a slice of the undecided pie you can lock up in your war chest. That also means it's a liability to the eventual heir to the liberal throne, especially for Hillary who seems hard-pressed to curry independent favor. On the other hand if he does take the national crown, I will be at least less dissatisfied with the result. Interestingly enough in character I'm more of a Huckabee fan and I respected Romney more as a candidate, but on policy they made me quake in my boots. McCain provides more of a malaise than a fear.
What gives me hope in the coming days is the pundit whispers. In past primaries where they got it wrong, there was at least some reasoning why the alternative result could happen. In this case it appears that Obama has a long list of states that favor him and he has more time to devote to personal campaigning, which is his ace up the sleeve. If he can keep his debates on the campaign trail and away from a moderator, I think he can finish the job.
On a totally different note I heard one response on NPR from Hillary supporters that frustrates me to no end. There were several supporters who expressed anger over a perceived subtle word-play sexism from the media and the Obama camp. The old story of calling her Hillary and him Obama. Calling him senator and her Mrs. Clinton. Perhaps I'm a special case, but I made my decision by reading their two platforms side by side and evaluating them on that. What's more, last I checked every single sign, bumper-sticker, and button the Clinton campagn puts out says, *gasp*, Hillary. If there is a subtle war of words bringing down her campaign, then her own soldiers are engaging in some serious friendly fire. I, and I presume nearly every other Obama supporter, would love to see a woman in the White House. I would even vote for a good option over Obama. If she gets the nomination I will even gladly be first in line to vote for her in the November race. But on the issues, viability, personality, and political theory, a head-to-head contest between Barack and Hillary in my eyes will forever and always favor Barack even if you refer to Hillary as Her Royal Highness and refer to Obama henceforth as 'the other guy'.
In short, vote 'the other guy' in '08
Meep