Friggin NATO
It was laughable to me when the UN authorized the no-fly zone and world leaders were coming on TV to say that Libya would not be subject to the regime change policy of the Bush Era.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
As of now, NATO and the Rebels have dismissed any attempts at negotiation and have confirmed that the new policy will be "action, not words". If Qaddafi doesn't show some signs of complying with the UN resolution then the air strikes would continue. Then before Qaddafi can respond NATO engages in a surgical strike to KILL him. They succeeded in only killing his son and six of his grandchildren. 6 children were killed by NATO doing the thing they said they would not do. Now obviously Qaddafi's abuses had killed children too, but WE, THE WESTERN HUMAN RIGHTS LOVING DEMOCRACIES, should not be engaging in this sort of behavior. Isn't this the kind of behavior that makes terrorists?
This operation is now changed into something very bad. If Qaddafi loses his loose control over the country then the tribes of Libya, which are basically the true power of Libya, will be unleashed. A humanitarian APOCALYPSE will ensue. The level of violence will rival that of Iraq in 2004 and Sudan in 2008. Imagine a place where there is no overarching authority and the people are left to settle disputes of ancient pettiness, a land where violence and war will know no end and our grandchildren will weep at what we let happen. Oh wait... we have those places. DRC, Somalia, Sudan, Nigeria. This is what awaits the people of Libya.
Unless...
1- Pull the goddamn strategic airstrikes and focus on close air support. Hit targets that actually threaten civilians and not the children of a madman.
2- Time to reaffirm that the UN does not choose sides. Peacekeepers from Russia, Pakistan, India, Brazil and basically any place that isn't NATO needs to put some blue hats on the ground and draw a line around Misrata. Defend it with a ferocity that should have been shown in Yugoslavia. Protect civilian centers against ANY aggressor.
3- Don't just check the Libyan army. Crush it. Land behind it; cut it off and force it to surrender.
4- Keep the rebels under control. There are different rebel groups that are running around trying to escalate this thing and the last thing that the UN needs is a bunch of jackass rebels seizing some inconsequential city and declaring it the new capital of Proto-Zano Libya or something.
5- Begin negotiations. No. 3 should be enough to accomplish this.
6- If negotiations fail, then build a grand coalition, charge Qaddafi with crimes against humanity and demand that he be handed over to the ICC for trial. If he refuses then we can engage in regime change. Nice and legal with the backing of the international community.
7- Transition the country over to a stable government and maintain a monitoring presence.
I would think that if Qaddafi's army is defeated and he begins to lose control the best option would be to negotiate with the tribal leaders of the country. They may just hand him over to expedite the return of stability. This would skip the need for a war against him, a proper Clausewitzian war anyways, not this current strategy. A key here is that peacekeepers need to be brought in get this situation back under control.
Just for Doug - Syria just got the shit end of the UN stick. The Libyan operation has robbed the people of that state of any direct intervention to end the violence. The Russians are so pissed off that Med or Putin said they wouldn't entertain any resolution that would involve Syria without a firmly drawn up operational plan. Something they were apparently promised with Libya, but have yet to receive. The Americans are stepping up the pressure on the Syrian government but it is unlikely that any US forces will be deployed to the area because of the volatility of it. I think the UN is meeting next week to discuss implementation of sanctions and other actions but Russia has pretty much already said no, and the Chinese and Portugal are unlikely to vote for it.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
As of now, NATO and the Rebels have dismissed any attempts at negotiation and have confirmed that the new policy will be "action, not words". If Qaddafi doesn't show some signs of complying with the UN resolution then the air strikes would continue. Then before Qaddafi can respond NATO engages in a surgical strike to KILL him. They succeeded in only killing his son and six of his grandchildren. 6 children were killed by NATO doing the thing they said they would not do. Now obviously Qaddafi's abuses had killed children too, but WE, THE WESTERN HUMAN RIGHTS LOVING DEMOCRACIES, should not be engaging in this sort of behavior. Isn't this the kind of behavior that makes terrorists?
This operation is now changed into something very bad. If Qaddafi loses his loose control over the country then the tribes of Libya, which are basically the true power of Libya, will be unleashed. A humanitarian APOCALYPSE will ensue. The level of violence will rival that of Iraq in 2004 and Sudan in 2008. Imagine a place where there is no overarching authority and the people are left to settle disputes of ancient pettiness, a land where violence and war will know no end and our grandchildren will weep at what we let happen. Oh wait... we have those places. DRC, Somalia, Sudan, Nigeria. This is what awaits the people of Libya.
Unless...
1- Pull the goddamn strategic airstrikes and focus on close air support. Hit targets that actually threaten civilians and not the children of a madman.
2- Time to reaffirm that the UN does not choose sides. Peacekeepers from Russia, Pakistan, India, Brazil and basically any place that isn't NATO needs to put some blue hats on the ground and draw a line around Misrata. Defend it with a ferocity that should have been shown in Yugoslavia. Protect civilian centers against ANY aggressor.
3- Don't just check the Libyan army. Crush it. Land behind it; cut it off and force it to surrender.
4- Keep the rebels under control. There are different rebel groups that are running around trying to escalate this thing and the last thing that the UN needs is a bunch of jackass rebels seizing some inconsequential city and declaring it the new capital of Proto-Zano Libya or something.
5- Begin negotiations. No. 3 should be enough to accomplish this.
6- If negotiations fail, then build a grand coalition, charge Qaddafi with crimes against humanity and demand that he be handed over to the ICC for trial. If he refuses then we can engage in regime change. Nice and legal with the backing of the international community.
7- Transition the country over to a stable government and maintain a monitoring presence.
I would think that if Qaddafi's army is defeated and he begins to lose control the best option would be to negotiate with the tribal leaders of the country. They may just hand him over to expedite the return of stability. This would skip the need for a war against him, a proper Clausewitzian war anyways, not this current strategy. A key here is that peacekeepers need to be brought in get this situation back under control.
Just for Doug - Syria just got the shit end of the UN stick. The Libyan operation has robbed the people of that state of any direct intervention to end the violence. The Russians are so pissed off that Med or Putin said they wouldn't entertain any resolution that would involve Syria without a firmly drawn up operational plan. Something they were apparently promised with Libya, but have yet to receive. The Americans are stepping up the pressure on the Syrian government but it is unlikely that any US forces will be deployed to the area because of the volatility of it. I think the UN is meeting next week to discuss implementation of sanctions and other actions but Russia has pretty much already said no, and the Chinese and Portugal are unlikely to vote for it.