This Week in Libya
The humanitarian crisis in Libya could turn into an epic bloodbath for the citizens of Misrata if the tribal leaders decide to engage in an operation to end the fighting. SO far it has been diplomatic but my fear is that the tribes could actually attack the rebels using irregular forces which would make any interdiction of their forces virtually impossible. This could turn Misrata into a massacre and cause a humanitarian crisis the likes that has not been seen yet. If this were to start the UN would have no choice but to escalate in response which means boots on the ground. These irregular forces will likely be far less discriminate than the Libyan Army (if that could be possible). This will be the Srebernica of this conflict, the UN will have a chance and if they miss it then the lessons learned in the 1990's will have been for nothing.
Racism in the EU is on the rise which is having a direct effect on the operation. The French and Italians are sending more ships to the Med to keep out, "an uncontrolled influx" of refugees. The Italians for all their mischief have continued to let in migrants and offer them visas. Naturally these people immediately take a train to France and suckle off the teat of the state, or so the crazy anti-immigration party of France would have us believe. Trains have been stopped at the French border and migrants denied entry. <- This is against the 1995 Schengen agreement and has become such a major issue that there is talk of amending one of the key treaties that the EU is built on. This is the only thing that I really consider as a threat to international security at the moment, if the EU collapses or shifts to the right there is no telling what the new discourse will bring. A harder line with Turkey and the Middle-East, Africa will be left out in the cold, and invariably a clash with the Russians.
Racism in the EU is on the rise which is having a direct effect on the operation. The French and Italians are sending more ships to the Med to keep out, "an uncontrolled influx" of refugees. The Italians for all their mischief have continued to let in migrants and offer them visas. Naturally these people immediately take a train to France and suckle off the teat of the state, or so the crazy anti-immigration party of France would have us believe. Trains have been stopped at the French border and migrants denied entry. <- This is against the 1995 Schengen agreement and has become such a major issue that there is talk of amending one of the key treaties that the EU is built on. This is the only thing that I really consider as a threat to international security at the moment, if the EU collapses or shifts to the right there is no telling what the new discourse will bring. A harder line with Turkey and the Middle-East, Africa will be left out in the cold, and invariably a clash with the Russians.