Iran and the "Arab Spring": Syrian dimension.
Vladimir Ahmedov
Iran and the "Arab Spring": Syrian dimension. Revolutionary movements in the Arab world have had a direct impact on domestic and foreign policy of Iran, leading to a change in the balance of power and reshaping the old alliances in the region. Over the past two decades, Iran has become one of the most influential power in the Middle East. After the U.S. weakened the main rival of Iran - the Taliban in Afghanistan and destroyed Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Iran received a brilliant chance to strengthen its position in the region. Over the past few years, Iran has managed to build his belt allied countries and organizations in the countries of the Arab East. It is Lebanon and the Lebanese, "Hezbollah", "Hamas" in Palestine, as well as individual organizations in a number of Arab countries.
From the very beginning of the "Arab Spring" has been generally well received in Iran, Iranian leaders have tried to exploit the Arab revolutionary idea as a continuation of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 to mobilize and rally the masses. In addition, many in Iran believed that the overthrow of the Iranian hostile Arab regimes could strengthen Iran's position in the Middle East. To some extent, these expectations were supported by changing the position of the new leadership of the largest Arab country - Egypt against Iran. This is - skip Iranian warships through the Suez Canal, the lifting of the ban to leave Gaza via Egypt leaders of "Hamas", the legalization of previously banned Islamic organizations ("Muslim Brotherhood"), to found political parties, and the rise to power in Tunisia representatives Islamic movements and the rise of the revolutionary movement in Yemen.
The first unpleasant surprise "Arab Spring" for Iran were the events in Bahrain. Shiites protest movement, backed by Iran against the ruling Sunni regime, was brutally suppressed by coordinated actions of the GCC in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Oman. At the same time the Arab monarchies have taken a number of urgent measures internally to prevent yourself from something like this. They supported tougher sanctions and military intervention in Libya, Western countries, in exchange for the legitimization of the U.S. and the EU of their actions in Bahrain. At the same time, Iran has been criticized by the GCC and has become the object of direct accusations of involvement in the Bahraini events.
The revolutionary events in Syria were the most difficult test for the foreign policy of Iran to defend their conquests in the Middle East. In addition, taking into account the events in Syria, many Lebanese political forces began to change its attitude towards Iran, trying to cut off the aid Lebanese "Hezbollah". Negatively affected by the Syrian developments and the situation in Iraq. After the withdrawal of a large portion of U.S. troops, Iraq experienced an acute political crisis in the occurrence of which also accused Iran. The Iranian leadership has actively supported his protege, Prime Minister of Iraq, N. al-Maliki, who mainly represented the interests of the Iraqi Shiites. The political forces of Iraq believed that if Tehran continues its policy on N. al-Maliki, it is, ultimately, can lead to split Iraq along religious lines. Baghdad was also unhappy with the policy of Iran on the Syrian conflict. Due to the shortage of finance in Iran because of the sanctions, Iran was forced to resort to the help of Iraq. Baghdad took part for the expenses of the Assad regime for the maintenance of his loyal army units. Today, therefore, the main content of the foreign policy of Iran in the Middle East is to preserve the former positions of Iran in the region and attempt to avoid international isolation of Tehran.
In Syria, Iran is trying to save the Assad regime. From the beginning, the Syrian revolution Iran understood that the Syrian regime will not be able to resist the revolutionary events and recommended that the Syrian authorities to implement reforms that would preserve the foundations of the regime. To help Damascus Iran held a series of meetings in Europe with foreign Syrian opposition and its leadership and even held talks with the head of the Syrian "Muslim Brotherhood" by M. Tayfur. But the meeting ended without result. Iran has also tried to change the position of Turkey in relation SAR, using the official lcontacts , as well as trying to exert pressure on Ankara hidden through associated with the Iranian part of the Turkish business community and ethno-confessional communities (Alawites, Kurds).
Tehran is well aware that with any likely outcome of events in Syria, Iran's position in the Middle East could be adversely affected, which will inevitably affect the weakening of ties with their Iranian allies. Thus, the leaders of the "Hamas" ultimately supported the uprising of the Syrian people, and said that in the event of war, "Hamas" will not go to war over Iran. The desire of Syrian President Assad B. retain their power in the country by any means, even the brutal suppression of the discontented population, causing protests from the international community. The armed opposition is seeking Assad's departure. The opposition in Syria continues. There are fights in the largest cities of the country. The armed Syrian opposition is preparing a decisive assault on Damascus. Despite this, the Iranian regime continues to support the B. al-Assad, providing it with financial, military and political support. In Syria, the Iranian military advisors work, experts of the IRG, some of which are directly involved in the fighting. The battle for Syria is largely decisive for the future character of Sunni-Shiite global interaction.
Today, the fate of the Middle East and, above all, the Syrian problem is one of the most pressing international issues. In its resolution including leading members of the international community. The EU and the U.S. is trying to put pressure on Iran through the elimination of the Assad regime as its main ally in the Arab world, pursuing an ambitious aim to obstruct the implementation of Iran's nuclear program. In Syria, the West in contrast to Russia, China and Iran in favor of a change of leadership of the current regime, while preserving the basic institutions of the state and their subsequent radical reform. Pragmatic Iran has long come to the conclusion about the inevitability of the fall of the Assad regime in the SAR and is now trying to buy time to preserve the "trump card" for dialogue with the new government of Syria and the United States on the question of its role in the region, and carefully prepare for the period after the departure of Assad .
To this end, Tehran seeks to create in Lebanon and Syria are positions that would allow him to continue to have an impact on Syria, even in the case of coming to power of the Sunni majority. Iran is using the Lebanese "Hezbollah" is actively working on a secret network of paramilitary organizations in the Syrian territory to continue to use them for their own interests in the Arab country. Currently, these units are already fighting with government forces against Assad rebels. The long term goal of Iran is also to create in Syria reliable operational positions in the event of the continuation of the civil war in the face of a possible division of the country along ethnic and religious lines. According to some reports, requiring confirmation from trusted sources, Tehran has a few weeks ago and today has prepared plans to send about 50,000 CAP volunteers to provide support to armed bearing heavy losses Assad's army, the overall number of combat-ready units does not exceed by far 65,000 people In the process of creating a network of Syrian armed cells, Iran is using its Lebanese and Iraqi experience, when the civil war in Lebanon, Iran initiated the establishment there in the early 1980s, organizations such as the "Hezbollah", and after the U.S. occupation of Iraq in 2003 established political and military control of the Shiite organizations.
One important element of such activities in Iran SAR is an active financial and military-technical support Tehran announced in the summer of 2012 Assad initiative to establish in Syria, the so-called People's Army. In fact, it's militias, which include, along with the Syrians themselves (75-80%), the Shiite paramilitary forces from Lebanon and Iran and other countries, which are designed to fight on the side of the regime. These seconded by experienced instructors from the "Hezbollah" and the IRG. The People's Army operates independently of the regular units of the regime. It is a joint venture of the Assad regime, Iran and Lebanon, "Hezbollah". The fact that, despite the obvious economic challenges currently facing international sanctions because of Tehran, his activities in support of the People's Army, may be indicative of the far-reaching plans for the future of Iran in Syria. In the short term, especially in the case of a split SAR, Iran clearly is betting on Shiites and Alawites who live compactly in areas close to the border with Lebanon and the Mediterranean coast. It was there that Assad can with the remnants of his army to create a "Alawite enclave", which has access to the Mediterranean Sea (Latakia), and Lebanon through the territory controlled by the "Hezbollah". Today, however, with respect to a changing balance of power in Syria is clearly not in favor of the regime in Iran, most likely, is more interested in maintaining their position in the Middle East than in the protection of the Assad regime. If Tehran can monitor important strategic points in the new Syria, using it creates a "network" that Iran still be able to supply the organization "Hezbollah" in Lebanon and thus will continue to influence the political situation in the Arab Mashreq.
As already noted above, Iran is in Syria of its military advisers and trainers. This fact was recognized by the IRG commander Jafari M. And during the press conference 16.09.2012, where he also said that Iran has provided armed support to Damascus, and elite squad of IRG - case "Al-Quds" helped Assad’s army. Beginning in January 2012, and so far, the Syrian regime economically survive, mainly through the help of Iran and a number of friendly countries (Russia and China), the speakers for diplomatic negotiations with opposing parties involved Assad. In August 2012 Damascus announced an agreement reached with Iran on Syrian oil exports to bypass western sanctions. In January 2013, Iran opened a credit line for financing of Iranian exports to the SAR consumer goods worth more than $ 1 billion. Iran is very closely linked with the Syrian regime and the possibility that he may suddenly move away from its support, is extremely small. Iran will try to do everything possible to save the basic institutions of the regime, in particular, special forces and security agencies. It's not just that Iran could lose its key allies in Syria, with which it is associated today, not only politically but also ideologically, and that it will be difficult to quickly find an adequate replacement. Unconditional victory of the revolutionary forces and the complete dismantling of the former regime in Syria, could seriously weaken the position of Iran in the Arab world, not only in the military-political, but also ideologically. Iran could be thrown from the borders with Palestine, Lebanon, and therefore on its main ideological ally in the region, "Hezbollah". The process of reaching changes in the Arab world can not be seen in isolation from the constant confrontation between Iran and the Arabian Gulf monarchies. Recent fear that Iran could take advantage of their weakness as a result of the eventual development of the Arab revolutionary movements, and use it to strengthen Iran's position in the region. Currently, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are particularly active to foil the plans of Iran in the region. Riyadh and Doha are trying to return to Syria and Iraq to the fold of the Arab world, to withdraw them from Iranian influence. On the other hand, the Arab monarchies can not ignore the fact that Tehran's deep involvement in the Syrian crisis, the Iranian distracts resources, weakening Iran's influence in the Shiite areas of Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Bahrain. Under the leadership of KSA and Qatar monarchy openly funding and arming the Syrian opposition and do not exclude option of foreign invasion in Syria to overthrow President Assad. Events in Bahrain, especially in Syria finally spoiled relations between Riyadh and Iran. Today, Saudi Arabia and Iran are in fact indirectly compete with each other, supporting the rival forces in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Palestine and Bahrain, not to mention Syria.
Stance in regard to the "Arab Spring" in the last year has undergone a dramatic change. Some Iranian "reformers" generally positive about the new Arab regimes. The Iranian leadership is, as before, considers that these popular movements used by the countries of the West and the Arab monarchies for their own selfish interests. At the same time it should be borne in mind that the "Arab Spring" and the revolution in Syria are a number of reasons certain challenge for Iran, and for Saudi Arabia. These movements may eventually spill over to them. This is all the more dangerous by the fact that by the power of the victorious revolution in the coming forces of political Islam. In fighting against the Assad government forces are actively involved so-called "Islamic battalions" (according to some sources, 8-12% of the total strength of the armed opposition), where a high proportion of "Afghan" and "Chechen" Arabs who came to the aid of the Syrian rebels from abroad. In addition, the Arab revolutionary movements against the backdrop of sharp differences in the region along confessional lines. In this case, the political system of governance in these countries differs theocratic character (KSA) and the high degree of participation in the government of the state of religious figures (IRI), which determines the specific role of religion and its representatives in retaining power. In addition, Iran has not been fully overcome the consequences of the events of the summer of 2009. In Saudi Arabia brutally suppressed the opposition (mainly Shiite). Creation of a new state in Syria and the loss of it as a swinger player on the field Sunni-Shiite differences represents a threat to change the dialectic paradigm of the military-political confrontation and interaction of these modes.
In general, it appears today in Iran and the Arab countries are thinking more about the place of Iran in the region after the withdrawal of B. Assad. Despite the worsening of the Iranian-Arab relations, no Arab country wants to completely sever ties with Tehran, especially in such a difficult time for the Arabs and the entire Middle East region currently. Even Turkey, which has a complicated history with Iran and differences in Syria and Iraq to support Iranian political and economic relations. In a number of countries of the Persian Gulf Arab states maintain diplomatic and trade relations with Iran, and in the KSA are two Iranian envoy representing his country in international Islamic organizations. Egypt in today's international environment is a key state for the future of Iran's politics in the Middle East. Tehran is seeking to open a new page in relations with Cairo. In fact, right after the January revolution in Egypt in 2011, Foreign Minister of Iran Ali Salehi said that Tehran is ready to restore diplomatic ties with Cairo, which were severed unilaterally by Egypt after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In August 2012, Egyptian President M. Mursi made the first visit to Tehran. Speaking at the summit of the "NAM", he criticized the Assad regime. In a meeting with President M. Ahmadinejad M. Morsi called on Iran to avoid interfering in Iraq's internal affairs and to settle all differences with the United Arab Emirates on 3 disputed islands in the Persian Gulf that both Iran and the UAE is considered an integral part of its territory. Tehran has kept sufficiently reacted to the statements and proposals of Egyptian President. Iran was concerned about the prospect of creating a Sunni bloc consisting of Egypt, GCC states and Turkey, which could undermine the position of Iran and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon and the Middle East. But the visit of President Ahmadinejad of Iran M. Cairo February 5, 2013 at the OIC summit was a success in terms of promoting the recovery process, the relations between the two countries. During the visit were discussed and the barriers that stand in the way of normalization of Iranian-Egyptian relations. It was about the plans for closer economic cooperation between Egypt and Iran, to transfer to a special deposit at the Central Bank of Egypt billions of dollars from Iran, supply 5 million tons of crude oil per month Cairo. At the end of March 2013 Egypt passed through the Suez Canal Iranian ship bound for Syria, according to Syrian opposition sources, with a large cargo of weapons to al-Assad. Located at the end of March, beginning of April 2013 in Cairo on an official visit to the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran has openly declared that Iran will not allow a change of the Assad regime in Syria. At the same time the Iranian representative called for the intensification of efforts set up in 2012 on the initiative of the Mursi "Quartet" of mediators to resolve the Syrian crisis within Egypt, Turkey, KSA and Iran. For its part, the Egyptian president M. Mursi (a native of the organization "Muslims-Brithers”), which is now subject to ever-increasing pressure within the country and abroad, mainly in the West and some Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, expects to see a rapprochement with Tehran to strengthen its position in the dialogue with internal and external opponents. In addition to political and economic considerations in establishing relations with Iran, one of the leading political forces of Egypt, "Muslim Brotherhood" expect to use Iranian support for strengthening the position of the "brothers" in the Egyptian security agencies, so as to achieve parity in relations with the military to the political arena of the country. Such convergence alarmed the U.S. and its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf. In the course of during the first 3 months of 2013 visits to Cairo, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and U.S. President Barack Obama, the U.S. reminded the Egyptian authorities on the West imposed economic sanctions against Iran and led to the continuation of financial support for the revision of Cairo taken by Egypt Line for normalization with Iran. At the same time, Qatar has announced plans to invest in Egypt's economy $ 18 billion dollars. Events "Arab Spring" were an ordeal for Iranian diplomacy. To maintain its position in the region, Iran has stepped up its foreign policy in the Middle East. This manifested itself in Yemen, where Iran has supported and supplied arms to rebels , who fought with the government. In Lebanon, Tehran sought to control the internal situation with the help of "Hezbollah". Iran continues to occupy three islands in the Persian Gulf that were previously shared with the UAE supports Shiite groups in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait. In Syria, Iran is fighting to save the Assad regime, which is opposed by the majority of the population. IRGC Commander General M. Jafari, speaking before a military asset, said concerns about the current situation around Iran. In particular, the IRG has expressed its dissatisfaction with the sharp divisions in the Iranian leadership between supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and religious conservatives, who in recent months have resulted in the public sphere. Iranian military worries that the West and, above all, the United States in the upsurge of Arab movements can use the weakening of unity in the Iranian leadership to their advantage to undermine political stability in Iran.
The economic situation in Iran has deteriorated significantly due to international sanctions. Due to the possible fall of the Assad regime will worsen and the political role of Iran in the region, particularly as a result of weakening the so-called axis - Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Gaza.
Today we can say that related to the "Arab spring" Iran hopes are not justified. First of all, there was not expected Iran series of revolutions in the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. It began and ended in Bahrain. The main ally of Iran in the Arab Mashreq - the Assad regime in Syria suffers apparent defeat at the hands of the rebels, and his days are numbered in fact. In connection with this "Sunni bloc" of Arab States and Turkey has many chances to become a reality.
Thus, today the "Arab Spring" is for Tehran more a threat than an advantage in the promotion of its policies in the Middle East.
The article was written in collaboration with L.M. Kulagina. This article was first published in arabesky.livejournal.com in Russian on 02 April 2013.
Iran and the "Arab Spring": Syrian dimension. Revolutionary movements in the Arab world have had a direct impact on domestic and foreign policy of Iran, leading to a change in the balance of power and reshaping the old alliances in the region. Over the past two decades, Iran has become one of the most influential power in the Middle East. After the U.S. weakened the main rival of Iran - the Taliban in Afghanistan and destroyed Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Iran received a brilliant chance to strengthen its position in the region. Over the past few years, Iran has managed to build his belt allied countries and organizations in the countries of the Arab East. It is Lebanon and the Lebanese, "Hezbollah", "Hamas" in Palestine, as well as individual organizations in a number of Arab countries.
From the very beginning of the "Arab Spring" has been generally well received in Iran, Iranian leaders have tried to exploit the Arab revolutionary idea as a continuation of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 to mobilize and rally the masses. In addition, many in Iran believed that the overthrow of the Iranian hostile Arab regimes could strengthen Iran's position in the Middle East. To some extent, these expectations were supported by changing the position of the new leadership of the largest Arab country - Egypt against Iran. This is - skip Iranian warships through the Suez Canal, the lifting of the ban to leave Gaza via Egypt leaders of "Hamas", the legalization of previously banned Islamic organizations ("Muslim Brotherhood"), to found political parties, and the rise to power in Tunisia representatives Islamic movements and the rise of the revolutionary movement in Yemen.
The first unpleasant surprise "Arab Spring" for Iran were the events in Bahrain. Shiites protest movement, backed by Iran against the ruling Sunni regime, was brutally suppressed by coordinated actions of the GCC in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Oman. At the same time the Arab monarchies have taken a number of urgent measures internally to prevent yourself from something like this. They supported tougher sanctions and military intervention in Libya, Western countries, in exchange for the legitimization of the U.S. and the EU of their actions in Bahrain. At the same time, Iran has been criticized by the GCC and has become the object of direct accusations of involvement in the Bahraini events.
The revolutionary events in Syria were the most difficult test for the foreign policy of Iran to defend their conquests in the Middle East. In addition, taking into account the events in Syria, many Lebanese political forces began to change its attitude towards Iran, trying to cut off the aid Lebanese "Hezbollah". Negatively affected by the Syrian developments and the situation in Iraq. After the withdrawal of a large portion of U.S. troops, Iraq experienced an acute political crisis in the occurrence of which also accused Iran. The Iranian leadership has actively supported his protege, Prime Minister of Iraq, N. al-Maliki, who mainly represented the interests of the Iraqi Shiites. The political forces of Iraq believed that if Tehran continues its policy on N. al-Maliki, it is, ultimately, can lead to split Iraq along religious lines. Baghdad was also unhappy with the policy of Iran on the Syrian conflict. Due to the shortage of finance in Iran because of the sanctions, Iran was forced to resort to the help of Iraq. Baghdad took part for the expenses of the Assad regime for the maintenance of his loyal army units. Today, therefore, the main content of the foreign policy of Iran in the Middle East is to preserve the former positions of Iran in the region and attempt to avoid international isolation of Tehran.
In Syria, Iran is trying to save the Assad regime. From the beginning, the Syrian revolution Iran understood that the Syrian regime will not be able to resist the revolutionary events and recommended that the Syrian authorities to implement reforms that would preserve the foundations of the regime. To help Damascus Iran held a series of meetings in Europe with foreign Syrian opposition and its leadership and even held talks with the head of the Syrian "Muslim Brotherhood" by M. Tayfur. But the meeting ended without result. Iran has also tried to change the position of Turkey in relation SAR, using the official lcontacts , as well as trying to exert pressure on Ankara hidden through associated with the Iranian part of the Turkish business community and ethno-confessional communities (Alawites, Kurds).
Tehran is well aware that with any likely outcome of events in Syria, Iran's position in the Middle East could be adversely affected, which will inevitably affect the weakening of ties with their Iranian allies. Thus, the leaders of the "Hamas" ultimately supported the uprising of the Syrian people, and said that in the event of war, "Hamas" will not go to war over Iran. The desire of Syrian President Assad B. retain their power in the country by any means, even the brutal suppression of the discontented population, causing protests from the international community. The armed opposition is seeking Assad's departure. The opposition in Syria continues. There are fights in the largest cities of the country. The armed Syrian opposition is preparing a decisive assault on Damascus. Despite this, the Iranian regime continues to support the B. al-Assad, providing it with financial, military and political support. In Syria, the Iranian military advisors work, experts of the IRG, some of which are directly involved in the fighting. The battle for Syria is largely decisive for the future character of Sunni-Shiite global interaction.
Today, the fate of the Middle East and, above all, the Syrian problem is one of the most pressing international issues. In its resolution including leading members of the international community. The EU and the U.S. is trying to put pressure on Iran through the elimination of the Assad regime as its main ally in the Arab world, pursuing an ambitious aim to obstruct the implementation of Iran's nuclear program. In Syria, the West in contrast to Russia, China and Iran in favor of a change of leadership of the current regime, while preserving the basic institutions of the state and their subsequent radical reform. Pragmatic Iran has long come to the conclusion about the inevitability of the fall of the Assad regime in the SAR and is now trying to buy time to preserve the "trump card" for dialogue with the new government of Syria and the United States on the question of its role in the region, and carefully prepare for the period after the departure of Assad .
To this end, Tehran seeks to create in Lebanon and Syria are positions that would allow him to continue to have an impact on Syria, even in the case of coming to power of the Sunni majority. Iran is using the Lebanese "Hezbollah" is actively working on a secret network of paramilitary organizations in the Syrian territory to continue to use them for their own interests in the Arab country. Currently, these units are already fighting with government forces against Assad rebels. The long term goal of Iran is also to create in Syria reliable operational positions in the event of the continuation of the civil war in the face of a possible division of the country along ethnic and religious lines. According to some reports, requiring confirmation from trusted sources, Tehran has a few weeks ago and today has prepared plans to send about 50,000 CAP volunteers to provide support to armed bearing heavy losses Assad's army, the overall number of combat-ready units does not exceed by far 65,000 people In the process of creating a network of Syrian armed cells, Iran is using its Lebanese and Iraqi experience, when the civil war in Lebanon, Iran initiated the establishment there in the early 1980s, organizations such as the "Hezbollah", and after the U.S. occupation of Iraq in 2003 established political and military control of the Shiite organizations.
One important element of such activities in Iran SAR is an active financial and military-technical support Tehran announced in the summer of 2012 Assad initiative to establish in Syria, the so-called People's Army. In fact, it's militias, which include, along with the Syrians themselves (75-80%), the Shiite paramilitary forces from Lebanon and Iran and other countries, which are designed to fight on the side of the regime. These seconded by experienced instructors from the "Hezbollah" and the IRG. The People's Army operates independently of the regular units of the regime. It is a joint venture of the Assad regime, Iran and Lebanon, "Hezbollah". The fact that, despite the obvious economic challenges currently facing international sanctions because of Tehran, his activities in support of the People's Army, may be indicative of the far-reaching plans for the future of Iran in Syria. In the short term, especially in the case of a split SAR, Iran clearly is betting on Shiites and Alawites who live compactly in areas close to the border with Lebanon and the Mediterranean coast. It was there that Assad can with the remnants of his army to create a "Alawite enclave", which has access to the Mediterranean Sea (Latakia), and Lebanon through the territory controlled by the "Hezbollah". Today, however, with respect to a changing balance of power in Syria is clearly not in favor of the regime in Iran, most likely, is more interested in maintaining their position in the Middle East than in the protection of the Assad regime. If Tehran can monitor important strategic points in the new Syria, using it creates a "network" that Iran still be able to supply the organization "Hezbollah" in Lebanon and thus will continue to influence the political situation in the Arab Mashreq.
As already noted above, Iran is in Syria of its military advisers and trainers. This fact was recognized by the IRG commander Jafari M. And during the press conference 16.09.2012, where he also said that Iran has provided armed support to Damascus, and elite squad of IRG - case "Al-Quds" helped Assad’s army. Beginning in January 2012, and so far, the Syrian regime economically survive, mainly through the help of Iran and a number of friendly countries (Russia and China), the speakers for diplomatic negotiations with opposing parties involved Assad. In August 2012 Damascus announced an agreement reached with Iran on Syrian oil exports to bypass western sanctions. In January 2013, Iran opened a credit line for financing of Iranian exports to the SAR consumer goods worth more than $ 1 billion. Iran is very closely linked with the Syrian regime and the possibility that he may suddenly move away from its support, is extremely small. Iran will try to do everything possible to save the basic institutions of the regime, in particular, special forces and security agencies. It's not just that Iran could lose its key allies in Syria, with which it is associated today, not only politically but also ideologically, and that it will be difficult to quickly find an adequate replacement. Unconditional victory of the revolutionary forces and the complete dismantling of the former regime in Syria, could seriously weaken the position of Iran in the Arab world, not only in the military-political, but also ideologically. Iran could be thrown from the borders with Palestine, Lebanon, and therefore on its main ideological ally in the region, "Hezbollah". The process of reaching changes in the Arab world can not be seen in isolation from the constant confrontation between Iran and the Arabian Gulf monarchies. Recent fear that Iran could take advantage of their weakness as a result of the eventual development of the Arab revolutionary movements, and use it to strengthen Iran's position in the region. Currently, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are particularly active to foil the plans of Iran in the region. Riyadh and Doha are trying to return to Syria and Iraq to the fold of the Arab world, to withdraw them from Iranian influence. On the other hand, the Arab monarchies can not ignore the fact that Tehran's deep involvement in the Syrian crisis, the Iranian distracts resources, weakening Iran's influence in the Shiite areas of Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Bahrain. Under the leadership of KSA and Qatar monarchy openly funding and arming the Syrian opposition and do not exclude option of foreign invasion in Syria to overthrow President Assad. Events in Bahrain, especially in Syria finally spoiled relations between Riyadh and Iran. Today, Saudi Arabia and Iran are in fact indirectly compete with each other, supporting the rival forces in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Palestine and Bahrain, not to mention Syria.
Stance in regard to the "Arab Spring" in the last year has undergone a dramatic change. Some Iranian "reformers" generally positive about the new Arab regimes. The Iranian leadership is, as before, considers that these popular movements used by the countries of the West and the Arab monarchies for their own selfish interests. At the same time it should be borne in mind that the "Arab Spring" and the revolution in Syria are a number of reasons certain challenge for Iran, and for Saudi Arabia. These movements may eventually spill over to them. This is all the more dangerous by the fact that by the power of the victorious revolution in the coming forces of political Islam. In fighting against the Assad government forces are actively involved so-called "Islamic battalions" (according to some sources, 8-12% of the total strength of the armed opposition), where a high proportion of "Afghan" and "Chechen" Arabs who came to the aid of the Syrian rebels from abroad. In addition, the Arab revolutionary movements against the backdrop of sharp differences in the region along confessional lines. In this case, the political system of governance in these countries differs theocratic character (KSA) and the high degree of participation in the government of the state of religious figures (IRI), which determines the specific role of religion and its representatives in retaining power. In addition, Iran has not been fully overcome the consequences of the events of the summer of 2009. In Saudi Arabia brutally suppressed the opposition (mainly Shiite). Creation of a new state in Syria and the loss of it as a swinger player on the field Sunni-Shiite differences represents a threat to change the dialectic paradigm of the military-political confrontation and interaction of these modes.
In general, it appears today in Iran and the Arab countries are thinking more about the place of Iran in the region after the withdrawal of B. Assad. Despite the worsening of the Iranian-Arab relations, no Arab country wants to completely sever ties with Tehran, especially in such a difficult time for the Arabs and the entire Middle East region currently. Even Turkey, which has a complicated history with Iran and differences in Syria and Iraq to support Iranian political and economic relations. In a number of countries of the Persian Gulf Arab states maintain diplomatic and trade relations with Iran, and in the KSA are two Iranian envoy representing his country in international Islamic organizations. Egypt in today's international environment is a key state for the future of Iran's politics in the Middle East. Tehran is seeking to open a new page in relations with Cairo. In fact, right after the January revolution in Egypt in 2011, Foreign Minister of Iran Ali Salehi said that Tehran is ready to restore diplomatic ties with Cairo, which were severed unilaterally by Egypt after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In August 2012, Egyptian President M. Mursi made the first visit to Tehran. Speaking at the summit of the "NAM", he criticized the Assad regime. In a meeting with President M. Ahmadinejad M. Morsi called on Iran to avoid interfering in Iraq's internal affairs and to settle all differences with the United Arab Emirates on 3 disputed islands in the Persian Gulf that both Iran and the UAE is considered an integral part of its territory. Tehran has kept sufficiently reacted to the statements and proposals of Egyptian President. Iran was concerned about the prospect of creating a Sunni bloc consisting of Egypt, GCC states and Turkey, which could undermine the position of Iran and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon and the Middle East. But the visit of President Ahmadinejad of Iran M. Cairo February 5, 2013 at the OIC summit was a success in terms of promoting the recovery process, the relations between the two countries. During the visit were discussed and the barriers that stand in the way of normalization of Iranian-Egyptian relations. It was about the plans for closer economic cooperation between Egypt and Iran, to transfer to a special deposit at the Central Bank of Egypt billions of dollars from Iran, supply 5 million tons of crude oil per month Cairo. At the end of March 2013 Egypt passed through the Suez Canal Iranian ship bound for Syria, according to Syrian opposition sources, with a large cargo of weapons to al-Assad. Located at the end of March, beginning of April 2013 in Cairo on an official visit to the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran has openly declared that Iran will not allow a change of the Assad regime in Syria. At the same time the Iranian representative called for the intensification of efforts set up in 2012 on the initiative of the Mursi "Quartet" of mediators to resolve the Syrian crisis within Egypt, Turkey, KSA and Iran. For its part, the Egyptian president M. Mursi (a native of the organization "Muslims-Brithers”), which is now subject to ever-increasing pressure within the country and abroad, mainly in the West and some Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, expects to see a rapprochement with Tehran to strengthen its position in the dialogue with internal and external opponents. In addition to political and economic considerations in establishing relations with Iran, one of the leading political forces of Egypt, "Muslim Brotherhood" expect to use Iranian support for strengthening the position of the "brothers" in the Egyptian security agencies, so as to achieve parity in relations with the military to the political arena of the country. Such convergence alarmed the U.S. and its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf. In the course of during the first 3 months of 2013 visits to Cairo, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and U.S. President Barack Obama, the U.S. reminded the Egyptian authorities on the West imposed economic sanctions against Iran and led to the continuation of financial support for the revision of Cairo taken by Egypt Line for normalization with Iran. At the same time, Qatar has announced plans to invest in Egypt's economy $ 18 billion dollars. Events "Arab Spring" were an ordeal for Iranian diplomacy. To maintain its position in the region, Iran has stepped up its foreign policy in the Middle East. This manifested itself in Yemen, where Iran has supported and supplied arms to rebels , who fought with the government. In Lebanon, Tehran sought to control the internal situation with the help of "Hezbollah". Iran continues to occupy three islands in the Persian Gulf that were previously shared with the UAE supports Shiite groups in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait. In Syria, Iran is fighting to save the Assad regime, which is opposed by the majority of the population. IRGC Commander General M. Jafari, speaking before a military asset, said concerns about the current situation around Iran. In particular, the IRG has expressed its dissatisfaction with the sharp divisions in the Iranian leadership between supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and religious conservatives, who in recent months have resulted in the public sphere. Iranian military worries that the West and, above all, the United States in the upsurge of Arab movements can use the weakening of unity in the Iranian leadership to their advantage to undermine political stability in Iran.
The economic situation in Iran has deteriorated significantly due to international sanctions. Due to the possible fall of the Assad regime will worsen and the political role of Iran in the region, particularly as a result of weakening the so-called axis - Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Gaza.
Today we can say that related to the "Arab spring" Iran hopes are not justified. First of all, there was not expected Iran series of revolutions in the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. It began and ended in Bahrain. The main ally of Iran in the Arab Mashreq - the Assad regime in Syria suffers apparent defeat at the hands of the rebels, and his days are numbered in fact. In connection with this "Sunni bloc" of Arab States and Turkey has many chances to become a reality.
Thus, today the "Arab Spring" is for Tehran more a threat than an advantage in the promotion of its policies in the Middle East.
The article was written in collaboration with L.M. Kulagina. This article was first published in arabesky.livejournal.com in Russian on 02 April 2013.