I have been under the impression that grad schools don't expect fall semester grades. This especially makes sense for December, even January deadlines, as most people including myself don't get official grades until break and student services pretty much shuts down. I requested transcripts in October because I'd heard my school was slow with them
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For schools with a March or February deadline, I would include a recent transcript with all grades. It gives the committee a more "full" idea of what courses you have taken and what your background is; otherwise it sort of looks like you're hiding the grades or just didn't think to send an updated transcript. That said, if it is an issue and if they're on the line between accepting or rejecting you, I am guessing you would be asked to send an updated transcript. That's not at all uncommon.
If you do decide to send in the transcripts without fall grades, obviously just be sure to request them before your fall grades are posted on there.
As for the final question, just smile and say "I hope you're right. Thanks for the support." They're just saying the only thing they know when they haven't gone through the same process. They're not putting a lot of thought into such a standard assurance, so don't worry about having a deeply thought-out response as to why this is different and you're so much more likely to be rejected, blah blah blah. Just appreciate the gesture for what it is - a sign of confidence and support from people who care about you.
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Good luck!!
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