Interesting Links for 19-06-2016

[andrewducker]

Pornography: Not actually bad for you (tags: pornography research psychology ) A simple numbers game seems to make kids better at math (tags: maths numbers learning psychology ) UK to reject EU plans to combat multinational tax avoidance (tags: tax europe uk ) Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4 Million Years (tags: antarctic co2

Comments

[bart_calendar]

Two questions:

1. Is the referendum legally binding? If Leave wins could Parliament say "You people are idiots, fuck that!"

2. Wouldn't the UK be completely fucked fiancially if Scotland stayed in the EU while the rest of the UK left, since you have all the oil?

[andrewducker]

Oil's not so valuable as it was:
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=2y

and there's a lot of discussion of whether the value of the oil outweighs the extra spending Scotland gets at the moment.

And no, the referendum is not technically legally binding. But any politician that says fuck you to a majority of the population is going to have _really_ big problems getting elected ever again.

[bart_calendar]

Well, oil will become valuable again.

It's only cheap now because of weird Middle Eastern politics.

According to the French newspapers (which I have to say are often incredibly biased so take it with a grain of salt) oil is cheap now because the Saudis are trying to pump out a lot to depress the prices so that Syria/ISIS have less financial resources.

[andrewducker]

That's kinda my understanding. Only also that Saudi Arabia and Iran hate each other, and therefore neither is willing to pump less (and make less money), despite knowing that if both did it then they'd both make more money. It's the Prisoner's Dilemma.

Only also there's Russia, which is also unwilling to pump less. Quite a good write-up here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/18/saudis-are-going-for-the-kill-but-the-oil-market-is-turning-anyw/

[bart_calendar]

Gotcha.

Yeah all that stuff will sort itself out and oil will jump back up in price.

This is just a weird glitch.

[andrewducker]

To me it's actually more surprising that OPEC managed control as long as it did. Keeping a cartel running for over 50 years is damned impressive.

[bart_calendar]

It is.

It's almost like the real goal of two destabilizing wars was to depress gas prices.

[danieldwilliam]

I think it is unlikely that oil will go up a lot in price.

I'd expect  $75.

The US has a lot of shale gas and tight oil that is profitable to extract at those prices and probably profitable to extract at significantly lower prices.

There are several technological factors destroying demand for oil. Engine efficiency,  a shift to electric transport and solar PV instead of heating oil for example.

Is that a problem for a newly independent Scotland?  Maybes Aye, Maybes Nay. There's not a huge amount of easy to extract oil in the North Sea. So there's not a huge amount of excess value to tax. On the other hand the technology, services  and labour that Aberdeen exports are very valuable to the Scottish economy. Arguably they do better with oil at  $75 than at $120 as they are aimed at reducing the cost of extracting oil.

[bart_calendar]

"And no, the referendum is not technically legally binding. But any politician that says fuck you to a majority of the population is going to have _really_ big problems getting elected ever again. "

Fundamentally isn't it the job of Parliament to say "no" when the people try to do something stupid?

[andrewducker]

Yes. But they traditionally do that by doing their job and making the decision in the first place.

Cameron pledged a referendum so that UKIP voters would vote Conservative instead. If he then ignores the results of the referendum, then what do you think the resulting effect will be on those voters (and the rest of the 50%-ish of the voting public who voted to leave.)

[bart_calendar]

The same as when the economy collapses as soon as he implements it?

[andrewducker]

I think at this point he's praying that the vote goes to Remain!

But it will be easier for them to recover from "We did a stupid thing because you demanded it." than from "The British people spoke and we told them to fuck off."

The first would almost certainly lose office for a term. The latter would be held against them for a generation.

[danieldwilliam]

Cameron could go to the country before invoking Article 50.

And / or he could require a second referendum to endorse the results of the exit negotiations.

There are ways of weaselling out of a close result.

There are probably no way of weaselling out of it that leave the Conservative Party in existence.

[andrewducker]

Yeah. Half of his MPs would never forgive him, and they'd tear themselves apart even more.

I think that a second referendum based on the exit negotiations would be very sensible.

IRV of:
1) Stay in.
2) Join the EEA under the offer that we can get.
3) Withdraw entirely.

[danieldwilliam]

He's in a difficult situation. The Euro-sceptics in his party would be pretty unhappy if he tried to ignore the result of the referendum. They are pretty vocal with a long history of being difficult

[cybik]

Whichever side wins is not going to be a majority of the population, though. It's going to be a majority of the people who vote on Thursday, and unless turnout is high and the vote is much, much less close than everyone thinks, that's not going to be a majority of the people who are eligible to vote, let alone the entire population.