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danieldwilliam April 5 2016, 12:39:13 UTC
I think the Hacker News comments thread covered off most of my comments on the Electric Vehicle article.

I think the Electic Vehicle issues raised are another example the thing I can't work out what to call where the adoption of a new technology by the people it currently works well for pretty much automatically solves the issue that are stopping the next most likely adopters to adopt the technology and so on.

Electric cars work well for some groups of people. People with driveways and short commutes for example. As they adopt electric cars it prompts the solving of issues the number of municipal charging points. They also start to shift the cost of production down through economies of scale and learning curve effects. The range drifts up. And then the next most likely set of people find the technology works better or more cheaply for them than a petrol car.

I also think the point made by one of the commentators that the lifespan of a car is about twenty years one to bear in mind. I did a rough prediction of the switch over to electric cars assuming a 20 year life (so an average of 10 years to replacement) and a gradually ramping up of the proportion of new electric vehicles to all new vehicles. I can't find it at the moment but I remember being struck by how long it would for natural attrition to move us to electric vehicles. Certainly long enough to entirely rebuild the national grid - excluding nukes.

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andrewducker April 5 2016, 14:19:12 UTC
Yeah, we have plenty of time to adjust. And I strongly suspect it won't be that hard.

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danieldwilliam April 5 2016, 15:11:54 UTC
I agree that it won't be that hard.

I think fundamentally we're slightly extending existing infrastructure over the next three decades and possible adding some electrical generation at a time when we are changing a lot of our energy generation technology anyway.

I'm sure it's a bit more complicated than just putting in a bunch of outdoor sockets but I think that at heart that's the issue.

Whilst at the same time slowly dismantling the infrastructure for shipping petrol around the place.

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