Unit Swiss
For some reason this month they had a 2-session "unit swiss" instead of the normal unit game. I guess they get more money this way. Henry, Rose, Dave Baer and I won the event. There were some pretty facts about the scores. Unbelievably, in the last four matches we didn't give up a single IMP! We won one of the 7-board matches by a score of 70-0, which sets a personal record. In the last match, the IMPs were 1,1,1,1,1,0,0.
Of course, there was good fortune in there, including me putting partner in this antipercentage but beautiful 6NT contract.
Kx AJxx
KJxx Ax
KJxxx Ax
xx AQJxx
Odds gurus should enjoy calculating the odds of landing this contract. Here's my best attempt at it.
On the spade lead to the J, Q, and K, I calculate the contract as needing 2/3 finesses and either diamonds or clubs to split 3-3. 2/3 finesses if 50/50, and one of two suits splitting 3/3 is about 59%, so it's a 30% contract. If the J holds the trick (unlikely... maybe they led from QT though), you don't need the heart finesse, so you only need 1/2 minor suit finesses, so that's 44%. Assuming J will hold the trick 25% of the time, a spade lead nets the contract 33% of the time.
On a red suit lead, which will guarantee three tricks in one of those suits, you need never try the spade finesse, so you make if 1/2 minor finesses and 1/2 minor suits splits 3-3. That's 44%.
On an unlikely (on the auction) club lead, you're back to needing 2/3 finesses, so 30%. In this case, you get to choose whether to finesse hearts or spades, so presumably that gives you some advantage. Leaving that out of the calculation though.
So assuming an equal likelihood of any suit being lead, the contract is 38%. This is the most complex odds calculation I've ever attempted, so I probably got something wrong.