My political two cents
So Romney's out. This could be bad. Granted, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that McCain would be the nominee for the Republicans, but now it's settled. Huckabee's got no chance here.
The problem is, that if it comes down to McCain vs. Hillary, I don't think Hillary will win. McCain doesn't have the baggage that she has from the Clinton years, and he appeals to a lot of moderate voters. She'll get the Clinton lovers, but the independents will have a tough time choosing between them, and I think history favors old white guys. She can say "change" all she wants, and her gender gives it some weight, but unless she can show herself to be separate from politics of the 90s, the American public will remember her as a 15 year political presence. The media's inevitable and ultimately understandable relating her with Bill Clinton is going to undermine any chance she has at showing she's a catalyst for change.
If it comes down to McCain vs. Obama, Obama has a fighting chance. On the issues, he and Hillary are very similar; he's a little less forceful on healthcare, a little more forceful on Iraq as far as I can tell. But from the base, he's bringing out the youth vote and the black vote in much greater numbers. Historically, the youth vote has not been sustainable beyond the primary, but that is arguably because the candidates the youth vote FOR don't make it to the nomination. This time could be different. If he's the nominee, I believe he will bring out the younger voters. If he's not, I don't think Hillary could sustain them. If he's the nominee, his stances being so similar to hers on the issues may win a large percentage of the Hillary voters to his side.
Once we have our nominees, the real fight begins, as both will try to appeal to either side. McCain trying to win back his supporters from 2000, and Obama trying to prove that his inexperience will not lead us to ruin.
That said, I'm for Obama, but for much more sentimental reasons, which I realize are not the best reasons to vote. He is inspiring. More than anything appreciate his JFK-like calls (even prior to the Ted Kennedy nomination) to bring the public more into government.
The problem is, that if it comes down to McCain vs. Hillary, I don't think Hillary will win. McCain doesn't have the baggage that she has from the Clinton years, and he appeals to a lot of moderate voters. She'll get the Clinton lovers, but the independents will have a tough time choosing between them, and I think history favors old white guys. She can say "change" all she wants, and her gender gives it some weight, but unless she can show herself to be separate from politics of the 90s, the American public will remember her as a 15 year political presence. The media's inevitable and ultimately understandable relating her with Bill Clinton is going to undermine any chance she has at showing she's a catalyst for change.
If it comes down to McCain vs. Obama, Obama has a fighting chance. On the issues, he and Hillary are very similar; he's a little less forceful on healthcare, a little more forceful on Iraq as far as I can tell. But from the base, he's bringing out the youth vote and the black vote in much greater numbers. Historically, the youth vote has not been sustainable beyond the primary, but that is arguably because the candidates the youth vote FOR don't make it to the nomination. This time could be different. If he's the nominee, I believe he will bring out the younger voters. If he's not, I don't think Hillary could sustain them. If he's the nominee, his stances being so similar to hers on the issues may win a large percentage of the Hillary voters to his side.
Once we have our nominees, the real fight begins, as both will try to appeal to either side. McCain trying to win back his supporters from 2000, and Obama trying to prove that his inexperience will not lead us to ruin.
That said, I'm for Obama, but for much more sentimental reasons, which I realize are not the best reasons to vote. He is inspiring. More than anything appreciate his JFK-like calls (even prior to the Ted Kennedy nomination) to bring the public more into government.