Mmm, nice chewy data.

[therealjae]

If a federal election were held today in Canada, the leader of the Conservative Party would become Prime Minister. If people were to change their minds, the second choice among most Canadians would be the NDP (social democrats). Fifty percent of Quebeckers would vote for the separatists, and the NDP is in first place in B.C. and the Prairies.

Comments

[starfishchick]

I'm afraid of Harper. I really am.

[em_h]

Me too, but I seriously wonder if he'd be able to form a government -- those are minority numbers. The NDP must know that if they support a Conservative goverment their supporters will turn on them; and the Conservatives must know that same will happen to them if they're propped up by the Bloc.

I really do suspect that people will end up defaulting back to the Liberals as always once they're in the voting booths, but if not, things could get even stranger than they already are.

[therealjae]

On the other hand, a Conservative minority government with a strong NDP on the other side of the aisle might be the only way to get proportional representation through. And at that point, everything's up for grabs.

-J

[therealjae]

I'm only afraid of Harper (and really it's not Harper personally, it's his party) in a majority situation, because a weak Conservative minority couldn't do squat. I was saying that last time when everybody was running around like the sky was falling, and it'll be true this time, too. Plus it would give the Liberals the chance to clean house and come back as a shiny new thing while the Conservative government attempts and fails to do things most of the country disagrees with. Really, if you think about it, a weak Conservative minority might just be the best thing that could happen this time around. Much as I hate to say it.

Still won't be voting for 'em, though.

-J

[bleu_lavande]

Me too, but I seriously wonder if he'd be able to form a government -- those are minority numbers

I believe this is precisely why neither the Conservatives nor the NPD have requested elections yet, despite the scandal and the polls. Otherwise, they would have jumped on the occasion.

[therealjae]

Well, a Jean Brault comes along once in a lifetime, so if that's the reason, it's not a very good one. Really I think it's because the Conservatives are still weighing whether the anger over an early election call (*sixty-two* percent of Canadians surveyed think an election call should wait until after the inquiry is complete! and the numbers are higher in Alberta!) would wreck their advantage. Me, I'm hoping they at least keep dithering until after the same-sex marriage vote. And ideally, until after my citizenship comes in -- I wanna VOTE in this election. :-)

-J

[bleu_lavande]

Me, I'm hoping they at least keep dithering until after the same-sex marriage vote.

Oh god, I'm so there with you. Can't wait till same-sex marriage is for sure a done deal, a ruling that cannot be changed. You know, this may actually be a good example of why some people, despite the latest events and revelations, would still vote for the Liberals -- a radical turn to the right is not something that Canadians wish for, I think. And cynics like me believe that all the "Old Parties" are corrupted anyway.

Ironically, you want the chance to vote in the next elections, whereas I would most likely abstain if this were to happen in the following weeks. It would not be an act of indifference on my part; rather, a rejection of what political parties have become.

[therealjae]

You know, this may actually be a good example of why some people, despite the latest events and revelations, would still vote for the Liberals -- a radical turn to the right is not something that Canadians wish for, I think.

You talk as if this were a two-party system. :-)

-J

Showing my American ignorance here

[redrob]

I was browsing through the graph, and nodding my head, until I noticed the huge spike in support for the Bloc in the 'college' column - much higher than either High School or University. I can only guess that is actually a reflection on education standards between Quebec and the rest of the nation, rather than significant in itself.

Alex

Re: Showing my American ignorance here

[therealjae]

I hadn't noticed that one, myself, but I bet that's right. Either that or it's a data problem.

-J