Oscars 2023 nominations predictions

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перестав быть оскаровским аналитиком, останусь оскаровским синоптиком и еще раз - в 11-й раз - поугадываю очередных номинантов

update:
2023 - 81/105 (77%)

рекап:

2022 - 84/105 (80%)
2020 - 86/109 (79%)
2019 - 85/106 (80%)
2018 - 84/107 (79%)
2017 - 87/107 (81%)
2016 - 81/107 (76%)
2015 - 78/107 (73%)
2014 - 83/108 (77%)
2013 - 79/101 (78%)
2012 - 74/104 (71%)
2011 - 73/107 (68%)



Best Picture
(8/10)

'The Banshees of Inisherin'
'Everything Everywhere All at Once'
'Tár'
'The Fabelmans'
'Top Gun: Maverick'
'Avatar: The Way of Water'
'All Quiet on the Western Front'
'Elvis'
'The Whale'
'Babylon'

Best Director
(4/5)

Martin McDonagh, 'The Banshees of Inisherin'
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, 'Everything Everywhere All at Once'
Todd Field, 'Tár'
Steven Spielberg, 'The Fabelmans'
Edward Berger, 'All Quiet on the Western Front'

Best Actor
(4/5)

Brendan Fraser, 'The Whale'
Austin Butler, 'Elvis'
Colin Farrell, 'The Banshees of Inisherin'
Bill Nighy, 'Living'
Tom Cruise, 'Top Gun: Maverick'

Best Actress
(3/5)

Cate Blanchett, 'Tár'
Michelle Yeoh, 'Everything Everywhere All at Once'
Danielle Deadwyler, 'Till'
Ana de Armas, 'Blonde'
Margot Robbie, 'Babylon'

Best Supporting Actor
(3/5)

Ke Huy Quan, 'Everything Everywhere All at Once'
Brendan Gleeson, 'The Banshees of Inisherin'
Barry Keoghan, 'The Banshees of Inisherin'
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans'
Eddie Redmayne, 'The Good Nurse'

Best Supporting Actress
(4/5)

Angela Bassett, 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever'
Kerry Condon, 'The Banshees of Inisherin'
Jamie Lee Curtis, 'Everything Everywhere All at Once'
Michelle Williams, 'The Fabelmans'
Hong Chau, 'The Whale'

Best Original Screenplay
(5/5)

'The Banshees of Inisherin'
'Everything Everywhere All at Once'
'Tár'
'Triangle of Sadness'
'The Fabelmans'

Best Adapted Screenplay
(4/5)

'Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery'
'Women Talking'
'The Whale'
'Living'
'All Quiet on the Western Front'

Best Cinematography
(2/5)

'Top Gun: Maverick'
'All Quiet on the Western Front'
'Avatar: The Way of Water'
'Empire of Light'
'The Fabelmans'

Best Costume Design
(4/5)

'Elvis'
'Black Panther Wakanda Forever'
'Babylon'
'Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris'
'Living'

Best Production Design
(4/5)

'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever'
'Elvis'
'Babylon'
'Avatar: The Way of Water'
'The Fabelmans'

Best Editing
(3/5)

'Top Gun: Maverick'
'Everything Everywhere All at Once'
'Elvis'
'All Quiet on the Western Front'
'The Fabelmans'

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
(5/5)

'Elvis'
'The Whale'
'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever'
'All Quiet on the Western Front'
'The Batman'

Best Original Score
(3/5)

'Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio'
'The Banshees of Inisherin'
'The Fabelmans'
'Babylon'
'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever'

Best Original Song
(3/5)

'RRR' ('Naatu Naatu')
'Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio' ('Ciao Papa')
'Top Gun: Maverick ('Hold My Hand')
'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' ('Lift Me Up')
'Avatar: The Way of Water' ('You Give Me Strength')

Best Sound
(4/5)

'Top Gun: Maverick'
'Elvis'
'All Quiet on the Western Front'
'Avatar: the Way of Water'
'Everything Everywhere All At Once'

Best Visual Effects
(5/5)

'Avatar: The Way of Water'
'Top Gun: Maverick'
'The Batman'
'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever'
'All Quiet on the Western Front'

Best Animated Feature
(5/5)

'Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio'
'Turning Red'
'Marcel the Shell with Shoes On'
'Puss in Boots: The Last Wish'
'The Sea Beast''

Best Documentary Feature
(4/5)

'All the Beauty and the Bloodshed'
'All that Breathes'
'Fire of Love'
'Descendant'
'Navalny'

Best International Feature Film
(4/5)

'All Quiet on the Western Front' (Germany)
'Argentina, 1985' (Argentina)
'EO' (Poland)
'Decision to Leave' (South Korea)
'Close' (Belgium)

PREDICTED TALLY:

9 - 'The Fabelmans'
9 - 'All Quiet on the Western Front'
8 - 'The Banshees of Inisherin'
8 - 'Everything Everywhere All at Once'
7 - 'Top Gun: Maverick'
7 - 'Elvis'
7 - 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever'
6 - 'Avatar: The Way of Water'
5 - 'The Whale'
5 - 'Babylon'
4 - 'Tár'
3 - 'Living'
3 - 'Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio'
2 - 'The Batman'
1 - 22 movies