Мюллер воскрес

[tijd]

Публикация (с купюрами) отчета Мюллера - принципиальная веха Рашагейта: https://viewfromll2.files.wordpress.com/2019/04/mueller-report.pdf

Небольшой анализ того, что есть и чего нет в этом отчете.

Что в отчете есть:

1. В первом томе - факты о российских хакерах и троллях, соответсвующие предыдущим обвинительным заключениям.

2. Там же - информация о многочисленных связях между избирательной кампанией Трампа и путинскими представителями. Не удалось, однако, найти достаточно доказательств для установления криминального характера этих связей.

Не удалось, к примеру, установить, зачем Манафорт систематически передавал внутренние данные кампании через Килимника Дерипаске.

Manafort instructed Rick Gates, his deputy on the Campaign and a longtime employee, 839 to provide Kilimnik with updates on the Trump Campaign-including internal polling data, although Manafort claims not to recall that specific instruction. Manafort expected Kilimnik to share that information with others in Ukraine and with Deripaska. Gates periodically sent such polling data to Kilimnik during the campaign. <…> Because of questions about Manafort's credibility and our limited ability to gather evidence on what happened to the polling data after it was sent to Kilimnik, the Office could not assess what Kilimnik (or others he may have given it to) did with it.



Сергей Приходько, с которым Дерипаска встречался на яхте, в отчете упоминается - как организатор несостоявшейся поездки Трампа в Петербург.

In late December 2015, Mira Duma-a contact of lvanka Trump's from the fashion industry-first passed along invitations for Ivanka Trump and candidate Trump from Sergei Prikhodko, a Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. On January 14, 2016, Rhona Graff sent an email to Duma stating that Trump was "honored to be asked to participate in the highly prestigious" Forum event, but that he would "have to decline" the invitation given his "very grueling and full travel schedule" as a presidential candidate. <...>
According to written answers from President Trump, Graff received an email from Deputy Prime Minister Prikhodko on March 17, 2016, again inviting Trump to participate in the 2016 Forum in St. Petersburg. Two weeks later, on March 31, 2016, Graff prepared for Trump's signature a two-paragraph letter declining the invitation. The letter stated that Trump's "schedule has become extremely demanding" because of the presidential campaign, that he "already ha[ d] several commitments in the United States" for the time of the Forum, but that he otherwise "would have gladly given every consideration to attending such an important event." Graff forwarded the letter to another executive assistant at the Trump Organization with instructions to print the document on letterhead for Trump to sign.


Henry Greenberg aka, Henry Oknyansky, Henry Okmyamsky. XGRAPPA@AOL[.]COM pic.twitter.com/ffO2u4zkVw
- UsHadrons (@ushadrons) June 17, 2018

Проясняются и другие детали. К примеру, выяснилось, что Геннадий Вострецов (Генри Гринберг) встречался с Роджером Стоуном не один, а в компании некоего Алексея Расина.

Oknyansky was accompanied to the meeting by Alexei Rasin, a Ukrainian associate involved in Florida real estate. At the meeting, Rasin offered to sell Stone derogatory information on Clinton that Rasin claimed to have obtained while working for Clinton. Rasin claimed to possess financial statements demonstrating Clinton's involvement in money laundering with Rasin's companies. According to Oknyansky, Stone asked if the amounts in question totaled millions of dollars but was told it was closer to hundreds of thousands. Stone refused the offer, stating that Trump would not pay for opposition research.
Oknyansky claimed to the Office that Rasin's motivation was financial. According to Oknyansky, Rasin had tried unsuccessfully to shop the Clinton information around to other interested parties, and Oknyansky would receive a cut if the information was sold. Rasin is noted in public source documents as the director and/or registered agent for a number of Florida companies, none of which appears to be connected to Clinton. The Office found no other evidence that Rasin worked for Clinton or any Clinton-related entities.



Усилия Барбары Ледин и Питера Смита по выходу на связь с российскими хакерами для поиска емайлов Клинтон появились не независимо, а по согласовано друг с другом и по указанию Трампа, переданному через Флинна. Эрик Принс частично обеспечивал финансирование проекта.

After candidate Trump stated on July 27, 2016, that he hoped Russia would "find the 30,000 emails that are missing," Trump asked individuals affiliated with his Campaign to find the deleted Clinton emails. Michael Flynn-who would later serve as National Security Advisor in the Trump Administration- recalled that Trump made this request repeatedly, and Flynn subsequently contacted multiple people in an effort to obtain the emails.
Barbara Ledeen and Peter Smith were among the people contacted by Flynn. Ledeen, a long-time Senate staffer who had previously sought the Clinton emails, provided updates to Flynn about her efforts throughout the summer of 2016.266 Smith, an investment advisor who was active in Republican politics, also attempted to locate and obtain the deleted Clinton emails.

ANY competent public corruption prosecutor would bring obstruction charges against Trump/and win. Only reason Mueller did not was because of the flawed DOJ restriction against indicting a sitting President. He said so (below). Congress now has a constitutional responsibility. pic.twitter.com/SkntzjfS5G
- Eric Holder (@EricHolder) April 19, 2019

This is a striking footnote. It’s raising seriously the possibility of criminal liability when Trump leaves office. Amazing. https://t.co/zSuMf1tL0f
- Neal Katyal (@neal_katyal) April 18, 2019

3. Во втором томе - собранные доказательства по многочисленным эпизодам попыток Трампа помешать правосудию. Нельзя рассматривать это иначе, чем готовый материал для импичмента. Поскольку инструкция Министерства юстиции запрещает предъявлять обвинения действующему президенту, собранные доказательства могут быть также использованы для предъявления обвинений после того, как Трамп оставит свой пост.

Некоторые из попыток помешать правосудию (такие, как обещание помилования для Манафорта) оказались успешными и помешали расследованию.

Third, the investigation established that several individuals affiliated with the Trump Campaign lied to the Office, and to Congress, about their interactions with Russian-affiliated individuals and related matters. Those lies materially impaired the investigation of Russian election interference.

I couldn't sleep until I made a more user friendly version.
<3 pic.twitter.com/HEuWcWMRH9
- yammerjaw ❤️ (@yammerjaw) April 20, 2019

Чего в отчете нет:

1. Отчет полностью фокусируется на криминальной составляющей и исключает составляющую расследования, которая шла по линии контрразведки. Мюллер объясняет, что все такие расследования он передавал в отдел контрразведки ФБР через прикомандированных сотрудников.

From its inception, the Office recognized that its investigation could identify foreign intelligence and counterintelligence information relevant to the FBI's broader national security mission. FBI personnel who assisted the Office established procedures to identify and convey such information to the FBI. The FBI's Counterintelligence Division met with the Office regularly for that purpose for most of the Office's tenure. For more than the past year, the FBI also embedded personnel at the Office who did not work on the Special Counsel's investigation, but whose purpose was to review the results of the investigation and to send-in writing-summaries of foreign intelligence and counterintelligence information to FBIHQ and FBI Field Offices. Those communications and other correspondence between the Office and the FBI contain information derived from the investigation, not all of which is contained in this Volume. This Volume is a summary. It contains, in the Office's judgment, that information necessary to account for the Special Counsel's prosecution and declination decisions and to describe the investigation's main factual results.

Все вопросы, относящиеся к ведению контрразведки, тщательно обходятся стороной. К примеру, про Килимника сообщается, что он в свое время был в США по российскому дипломатическому паспорту: "U.S. government visa records reveal that Kilimnik obtained a visa to travel to the United States with a Russian diplomatic passport in 1997." Но означает ли это, что в это время работал на разведку? Похожая "проклятая неизвестность" и про другого человека из антуража Дерипаски, Виктора Бояркина: "Viktor Boyarkin, a Russian national who previously served in the defense attache office of the Russian Embassy to the United States."

Хочу сегодня проехаться по Москве с американским флагом в окне машины. Если найду флаг. Присоединяйтесь😀 Они сегодня заслужили.
- Маргарита Симоньян (@M_Simonyan) November 9, 2016

2. Из-за фокуса на криминале, из истории о российском вмешательстве исключены средства влияния, которые не были криминальными, вроде пропаганды RT и Sputnik. Там также нет ничего про контакты Торшина и Бутиной с NRA и другие эпизоды.

3. Отсутствуют ответы Трампа на многие вопросы. Мюллер рассматривал возможность выписать официальную повестку, но не стал к этому прибегать. Трамп-младший также отказался давать показания.

During the course of our discussions, the President did agree to answer written questions on certain Russia-related topics, and he provided us with answers. He did not similarly agree to provide written answers to questions on obstruction topics or questions on events during the transition. Ultimately, while we believed that we had the authority and legal justification to issue a grand jury subpoena to obtain the President's testimony, we chose not to do so. We made that decision in view of the substantial delay that such an investigative step would likely produce at a late stage in our investigation.

So many answers. pic.twitter.com/GY61xtIgJV
- James Comey (@Comey) April 19, 2019

4. Самое главное: отсутствует ответ на центральный вопрос этого сообщества. Существует ли путинский крюк, на котором сидит Трамп? С одной стороны, это помогло бы ответить на вопрос о мотиве попыток помешать расследованию. С другой стороны, это заходит на территорию ведома контрразведки, которую Мюллер оставил за скобками.



Пока что есть только намеки. К примеру, выясняется, что решение об увольнении Коми накануне визита Лаврова в Белый дом Трамп принял в тот же день, когда согласовал этот визит, после чего к недоумению помощников упорно настаивал на том, чтобы российское расследование было упомянуто в решении об увольнении.

The meeting had been planned on May 2, 2017, during a telephone call between the President and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the meeting date was confirmed on May 5, 2017, the same day the President dictated ideas for the Corney termination letter to Stephen Miller.

At a dinner on Friday, May 5, attended by the President and various advisors and family members, including Jared Kushner and senior advisor Stephen Miller, the President stated that he wanted to remove Corney and had ideas for a letter that would be used to make the announcement. The President dictated arguments and specific language for the letter, and Miller took notes. As reflected in the notes, the President told Miller that the letter should start, "While I greatly appreciate you informing me that I am not under investigation concerning what I have often stated is a fabricated story on a Trump-Russia relationship - pertaining to the 2016 presidential election, please be informed that I, and I believe the American public - including Os and Rs - have lost faith in you as Director of the FBT."

Опять мучаться проклятой неизвестностью.