ONTD Original: A Data Dive into the Girls Planet 999 Votes, Multipliers, and Cross-Region Popularity

Oct 23, 2021 12:09

As noted in a previous post, Girls Planet 999 is a rebranded Produce series a Korean audition survival program that invited 99 trainees from Korea, Japan, and China (33 per country) to compete for a chance to join a 9-person global K-Pop group. Now that the final results are out, reactions to the lineup and the effects of multipliers have been mixed. After seeing data containing both Korean and Global votes, I decided to dive deeper into whether changing the weight of Korean votes would have changed the final lineup and whether there are trainees that appealed to both Korean and international audiences. Of course, this post will contain spoilers, so keep scrolling if you don't want to know the official results.

What if only International Fans Voted?

  • Chinese trainees Yaning and Sui Ruiqi would have made it to the final lineup as #4 and #5 respectively, while Korean trainees Yeseo and Dayeon would have been eliminated.
  • Xiaoting also would have been #6, resulting in the popular Chinese trainees being grouped together in the ranking. This may indicate that Chinese voters had a large influence on the international votes.
  • The group would have been 4K-2J-3C in distribution.
  • Baiyyih would have gained the #1 position.
  • Chaehyun would have barely made it into the group (as opposed to being in the #1 position).
  • Mashiro would have been #2.
  • Other small shuffes in rankings would occur.

What if only Korean Fans Voted?

  • Korean trainees Myah and Suyeon would have made it to the final lineup as #5 and #6 respectively, while Japanese trainee Mashiro and Chinese trainee Xiaoting would have been eliminated.
  • The group would have been 8K-1J-0C in distribution.
  • Hikaru would have been the only non-Korean trainee to make it into the final lineup. She would have also been the lowest ranking member to get into the gorup.
  • Baiyyih would have dropped down to 7.
  • Youngeun also notably dropped down to 8.
  • Other small shuffle in rankings would occur.

Which Trainees Appealed across Korean and International Fanbases?

  • Disparities between Korean and International preferences were calculated by the difference in ranking between Korean and International votes.
  • Wen Zhe and Xingqiao had the most balanced fanbase, but this seems to be more of a sign of the two being universally unpopular among the final contestants.
  • Hikaru, Yurina, Bora, and Shana seem to have a balanced fanbase. However, only Hikaru made it to the final group among these trainees.
  • Yujin, Youngeun, and Xiaoting seem to also have a moderately balanced fanbase. Both Yujin and Xiaoting made it to the final lineup.
  • Although Baiyyih's votes largely came from International fans, her skew towards International fans doesn't seem to be as big as some have described.
  • Myah, Yaning, Sui Ruiqi and Suyeon's inclusion/exclusion from the final group is largely dependent on the multiplier used to inflate Korean votes.Yaning and Sui Ruiqi are mostly supported by International fans while Myah is mostly supported by Korean fans. Suyeon's votes are also moderately skewed toards Korean fanbases.
  • Mashiro and Dayeon's fanbases are mostly International and Korean respectively. However, both would have made it to the lineup regardless unless the multipler was skewed heavier in their fanbase's favor.

How did Multipliers Change the Lineup
Korean Votes Treated Equally as International Votes

  • Results are near identical to the International Fan rankings.
  • Again, Yaning and Sui Ruiqi would have made it to the final lineup while Yeseo and Dayeon would have been eliminated.
Korean Votes Weighed 4x of International Votes

  • If we keep increasing the multipler by whole numbers, Sui Ruiqi would have made it to the final lineup instead of Dayeon as long as the Korean vote multiplier stayed below 4x.
  • Baiyyih still would have been #1.
Korean Votes Weighed 5x of International Votes

  • The multipler needed to be at least 5x for Korean votes to get the same roster as the official lineup.
  • Yaning would have made it ot the group instead of Dayeon if the multipler stayed below 5x.
  • Considering that the multiplier seems to be about 10x, Mnet definitely overweighed Korean votes and further changed the rankings among the trainees that made it to the group (e.g., Baiyyih no longer being #1, non-Korean trainees falling into the lower ranks).
  • The multipler affected the lineup by two trainees. However, these two trainees are Chinese trainees and would have balanced the lineup to 4K-2J-3C.
  • Trainees that made it to the final group generally do not have a balanced fanbase and more relied on one fanbase source.
  • Non-Korean trainees that made it to the group either had a balanced fanbase (Hikaru, Xiaoting) or extremely strong support from International fans (Mashiro)
  • Hikaru, Yujin, and Xiaoting are the members mostly likely accepted by both fanbases once the group debuts.
  • The remaining six members are more polarizing in one way or another.
  • In particular, Chaehyun and Dayeon mostly only appeal to Korean fans while Mashiro mostly only appeals to International fans. Baiyyih generally seems to have support from both fanbases, but she definitely leans heavily towards International fans based on ranking disparities.
  • Some international fans are noting how it's a shame that Japanese trainee Yurina did not make it to the final group. However, she wouldn't have made it to the group regardless (ignoring how interim results may have affected voting patterns).

Sources 1 / 2
do you think the multipler should have been adjusted? which roster/multipler would you have preferred?

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