(no subject)
PART FOUR: THE WOULD-BE CASPIAN OIL BONANZA.
earlier pieces: part one, part two, and part three
In the 1990s people thought that the Caspian sea -- located deep inside Eurasia and bordered by Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhastan, and Turkmenistan -- might contain a LOT of oil. Like, a 'free the West from OPEC dependence,' bonanza-boom-party amount of oil.*
Just one problem: the Caspian is landlocked.
The Caspian is on the far right. It's got Central Asia to the East, Russia above, Iran below.
Probably the most geographically sensible way route would have been south, through Iran, but Western countries strenuously objected to that.**
Instead, starting in the 1990s, the West declared itself dead-set, hell-bent, on an improbable pipeline route: they wanted to take oil through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.
It was an unlikely route choice for several reason. As redpepper.org.uk put it,
the BTC pipeline will cross nature reserves, archaeological sites and 1500 watercourses, from small streams in the Caucasus Mountains to rivers and canals. Its route cuts almost entirely through an active earthquake zone. Long-standing regional conflicts with Armenian and Kurdish separatists add to the instability of the project.
Let's take a look @ a few of the things that the BTC passes near to and/or right beneath (and note how many are either "things that might be endangered by a pipeline" or "things that a pipeline might endanger"):
Azeri autocrat whose undemocratic ways don't concern the West (AKA "our autocrat")
The separatist region Nagorno Karabakh (in Azerbaijan, full of Armenians)
Azeri archaeological sites
Georgia's Borjomi valley and nature preserve, a major earthquake zone and also the source of one of Georgia's biggest exports (Borjomi mineral water)
The Pankisi Gorge (Georgia/Chechnya border) reputed to be full of terrorists
Kurdish zones of Turkey, some of which are PKK territory***
But, y'know, we LONG FOR that pipeline. We want a pipeline that is ours, all ours, not traveling through Russia, not under the thrall of OPEC, not passing through Iran. The US government (under both Clinton and Bush) lobbied British Petroleum to build BTC, we managed to override any number of ecological and safety concerns in its creation, and now we want to USE it!
So, the next time you hear a Western president or a Western pundit talking about Georgia's sacred rights to democracy-and-freedom, remember that they're likely thinking about petroleum's sacred rights to democracy-and-freedom too.
Understanding the geopolitics of the region also helps explain why Russia did their damndest to blow up the BTC pipeline last week, and might help explain -- a bit -- why Russia wanted to invade in the first place.
But if you ask me, there's more to it than energy politics. To a certain extent, I think this conflict is irrational/emotional. And THAT will be explained in my "geopolitical wtf" finale tomorrow.
Notes
*This idea is now thought to be total bunk. Current estimates of the Caspian oil reserves range from about 1%-3% of world reserves.
**For awhile folks were bandying about the idea of a different southward route -- in fact, Benezhir Bhutto and the Turkmen dictator Niyazov conducted feasibility studies on a route running through their countries. But that fantasy was upturned by Afghanistan's 2001 descent into war.
this one isn't happening anytime soon.
There's also a pipeline built by the West AND Russia: the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which transports oil from the east Caspian to the Black Sea.
See Georgia down there, south of the pipeline?
It was hailed as an historic East-West partnership, blah, blah, blah, and everyone was content for about five minutes, but then the involved parties began to quarrel, Russia decided to charge the CPC pipeline $250 million in back taxes, and some disgruntlement has spread through the land.
***In fact, there was a mysterious fire in the Turkish part of the pipeline August 6th. They had to turn the pipeline off for the time being, and there are speculations that the pipeline might have been attacked by Kurdish separatists.
earlier pieces: part one, part two, and part three
In the 1990s people thought that the Caspian sea -- located deep inside Eurasia and bordered by Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhastan, and Turkmenistan -- might contain a LOT of oil. Like, a 'free the West from OPEC dependence,' bonanza-boom-party amount of oil.*
Just one problem: the Caspian is landlocked.
The Caspian is on the far right. It's got Central Asia to the East, Russia above, Iran below.
Probably the most geographically sensible way route would have been south, through Iran, but Western countries strenuously objected to that.**
Instead, starting in the 1990s, the West declared itself dead-set, hell-bent, on an improbable pipeline route: they wanted to take oil through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.
It was an unlikely route choice for several reason. As redpepper.org.uk put it,
the BTC pipeline will cross nature reserves, archaeological sites and 1500 watercourses, from small streams in the Caucasus Mountains to rivers and canals. Its route cuts almost entirely through an active earthquake zone. Long-standing regional conflicts with Armenian and Kurdish separatists add to the instability of the project.
Let's take a look @ a few of the things that the BTC passes near to and/or right beneath (and note how many are either "things that might be endangered by a pipeline" or "things that a pipeline might endanger"):
Azeri autocrat whose undemocratic ways don't concern the West (AKA "our autocrat")
The separatist region Nagorno Karabakh (in Azerbaijan, full of Armenians)
Azeri archaeological sites
Georgia's Borjomi valley and nature preserve, a major earthquake zone and also the source of one of Georgia's biggest exports (Borjomi mineral water)
The Pankisi Gorge (Georgia/Chechnya border) reputed to be full of terrorists
Kurdish zones of Turkey, some of which are PKK territory***
But, y'know, we LONG FOR that pipeline. We want a pipeline that is ours, all ours, not traveling through Russia, not under the thrall of OPEC, not passing through Iran. The US government (under both Clinton and Bush) lobbied British Petroleum to build BTC, we managed to override any number of ecological and safety concerns in its creation, and now we want to USE it!
So, the next time you hear a Western president or a Western pundit talking about Georgia's sacred rights to democracy-and-freedom, remember that they're likely thinking about petroleum's sacred rights to democracy-and-freedom too.
Understanding the geopolitics of the region also helps explain why Russia did their damndest to blow up the BTC pipeline last week, and might help explain -- a bit -- why Russia wanted to invade in the first place.
But if you ask me, there's more to it than energy politics. To a certain extent, I think this conflict is irrational/emotional. And THAT will be explained in my "geopolitical wtf" finale tomorrow.
Notes
*This idea is now thought to be total bunk. Current estimates of the Caspian oil reserves range from about 1%-3% of world reserves.
**For awhile folks were bandying about the idea of a different southward route -- in fact, Benezhir Bhutto and the Turkmen dictator Niyazov conducted feasibility studies on a route running through their countries. But that fantasy was upturned by Afghanistan's 2001 descent into war.
this one isn't happening anytime soon.
There's also a pipeline built by the West AND Russia: the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which transports oil from the east Caspian to the Black Sea.
See Georgia down there, south of the pipeline?
It was hailed as an historic East-West partnership, blah, blah, blah, and everyone was content for about five minutes, but then the involved parties began to quarrel, Russia decided to charge the CPC pipeline $250 million in back taxes, and some disgruntlement has spread through the land.
***In fact, there was a mysterious fire in the Turkish part of the pipeline August 6th. They had to turn the pipeline off for the time being, and there are speculations that the pipeline might have been attacked by Kurdish separatists.