Prop 8 Losing, But Gap Continues to Narrow

[amurderofcows]

A new Field Poll shows Proposition 8, which would overturn same-sex marriage in California, losing 49%-44%, with 7% undecided. That's good news, but that gap is steadily narrowing; things have been moving in the wrong direction (for us) since the campaign started

Comments

[tko_ak]

Thanks for explaining it all for people. I hope everyone reads it.

I think the California amendment is seen as especially important because marriage is already illegal. The proposed bans in Arizona and Florida are less pressing, since they're only extending a ban already in place. The "threat" is more abstract.

I have a feeling Prop 8 will fail, especially if it comes to turnout. I know some on the other side are dedicated, but I think we want it more. But there probably will be some split voting (votes for Obama and for Prop 8). I've read a couple of articles where they think racial minority groups could be pivotal. Black voters are likely to shatter turnout records for Obama, but the polls I've seen show that the majority also support Prop 8. Which is sort of interesting, since the nation's two black governors support marriage equality.

[amurderofcows]

Also, Prop 8 would be the first time gay marriage got an electoral stamp of approval, which undercuts the "unelected judges imposing their views from the bench" argument. I think that's the biggest change that would come out of a Prop 8 defeat. The second-biggest change is that California is still considered something of a harbinger state, so it would make it clear to the country that same-sex marriage is coming, and that it's only a matter of when.

[tko_ak]

I remember when Massachusetts happened, anti-equality forces were whining about "unelected judges setting policy" and that it should be in the hands of the legislature. In California, the legislature passes it twice but Schwarzenegger vetoes it because voters had passed something banning it, saying only the Supreme Court (or constitutional amendment) could change it. So then the anti-equality people say it should be up to the people, not the legislature, since at least in California, the legislature supports gay marriage.

[amurderofcows]

Re black voters, the sample sizes for the crosstabs of black voters have been pretty small, so it's hard to tell. California has a relatively small black population (6%, which is about half the national average) so I don't think Prop 8 turns on how blacks vote as much as it does on Hispanic Catholics, and that's where I worry about the church's influence. Going into the weekend, Latinos were split pretty evenly on Prop 8.

Black political leaders in California have been pretty supportive of the No on 8 campaign, but black voters are disproportionately religious, and religion has been pretty closely correlated to support for Prop 8. On the other hand, black voters are also clustered in parts of the state (like Los Angeles County and Alameda County) where the political zeitgeist is very liberal. Rural black populations in the rest of the US tend to be more socially conservative than their urban counterparts (which is true of whites too) and the black population in California is very much an urban one. Rural California is white and

[trialia]

And if they don't see things your way, hey, old people fall down long flights of stairs all the time, that's all I'm saying.
Dude, you did NOT just say that in a public post. *blinks* I'm sure you're kidding, but other people might not. Are you trying to lose support?

[innerlife_]

I laughed.

[trialia]

So did I, but I'm also a little worried that other people might not.

[innerlife_]

Their loss, methinks.

[nederlandergirl]

So if your grandparents live in California, talk to them about voting against Prop 8. And if they don't see things your way, hey, old people fall down long flights of stairs all the time, that's all I'm saying.

*Sarah Silverman moment*

[fayanora]

The Yes on 8 campaign estimates that 40% of their money has come from Mormon donors, most of them from out of state

Um, what? So the religion founded on marrying multiple people is trying to prevent others from marrying? o_O

And if they don't see things your way, hey, old people fall down long flights of stairs all the time, that's all I'm saying.

Oy vey...

If prop 8 wins, I think someone should introduce a bill banning straight marriage.

[fabfemmeboy]

The Yes on 8 campaign estimates that 40% of their money has come from Mormon donors, most of them from out of state

Um, what? So the religion founded on marrying multiple people is trying to prevent others from marrying? o_O

Yeah, I was particularly amused by the irony.

If prop 8 wins, I thinks omeone should introduce a bill banning straight marriage.

...because that won't be counterproductive to our cause or give credence to the idea that we want to destroy straight families at all.

[fayanora]

Oh. Whoops. :-)

[fabfemmeboy]

This is interesting, but the one key factor that hasn't been discussed much is the way the presidential race is going to shape voter turnout in California. Determining "likely voters" is always a difficult pseudo-science, and in this election it's even more insane - how much do we count young people, the majority of whom are not staunchly anti-gay-marriage enough to vote for 8, who do not usually vote but seem to be registering in droves to vote for Obama

[amurderofcows]

The Field Poll seems to be using a likely voter screen that accounts for a lot of that, or at minimum assumes that Democratic turnout will be especially heavy. The same poll showed a 22-point gap between Obama and McCain. California is a Blue State to be sure, but a 22-point gap would represent a pretty serious swing. In 2004, Kerry won California by 9.8% and in 2000 Gore won California by 11.6%, so a poll which shows Obama winning by 22% looks to me like a poll with a lot of favorable turnout assumptions about Democrats built into the likely voter screen