War!

[emo_snal]

   So Russia's at war. I don't think most of America noticed, though I have heard a few random people talking about it. Anyway, I wrote several papers about Georgia and its breakaway provinces and Russia's interests in the area, so this development is interesting to me

Comments

[silvershamrock]

Hm ... this is actually a little scary. I can't find the damn link (at least, not in English), but a few months back I saw a BBC documentary on the rise of National Socialism in Russia.
The presenter claimed that Russia currently has the highest concentration of Neo-Nazis in the world, and that they have a fairly significant influence on the government: apparently the Mayor of Moscow (or whatever the Russian equivalent is) is a Neo-Nazi himself.
One thing they've managed to push through is Russian women that marry non-Russian nationals have their citizenship revoked (apparently; again, I can't find the evidence to back this up).
Are these South Ossetians 'aryan' by any chance, or am I just clutching at straws?

[emo_snal]

Hmm well "aryan" isn't actually an ethnic group I don't think. Its jsut something the nazis made up. The aryanns were actually an INDIAN ethnic group way back in prehistory, but they were the origins of the "indo-europeans" I guess. Anyway for example Persia changed its name to Iran in the 30s to emphasize they too were Aryan and suck up to Mr Hitler

[silvershamrock]

I'd heard about the Nazi concept of 'Aryan' versus the reality, I just wasn't sure how it worked out in this case. So, it's probably not the Russian Nazis then (now there's a concept for you: Communist Nazis. Pretty sure Simpsons have done that one already).

Even so. Untrammeled Russian aggression is probably not a good thing, especially if there's a strong undercurrent of the 'Bruderbund', or whatever the Slavic equivalent is.

[emo_snal]

Oh yeah there are very definitely Russian skinheads (some left my brother unconscious in a snowbank in Estonia once), and Russian nationalism is definitely pretty strong right now. So yeah. I'm not sure there's a really convenient analogy to anything else but I dunno if you're in America but the Republicans have a kind of "America is awesome in whatEVER it does!!" kind of patriotism, and I think there a bunch of Russians that feel that way about Russia.

And yes, in the Simpsons McBane fights "Commu-nazis" in some short clips of one of his films.

[king_richard]

This came as a bit of a surprise to me, I had to look on a map to see exactly where Georgia is and what countries it borders. But from my curosry research it would seem that there are some pretty big issues going on. The South Ossestia issue hold a mirror to Kosovo and Europe's recognition of their independance. Also I came across some mention of oil and gas pipelines, just to make things interesting.

[emo_snal]

Yeah, I mean, there's actually a LOT of countries that have provinces within them which would probably vote for independance, and thats why a lot of countries have yet to recognize Kosovo's independance -- because if they do so that would set a precedent that they should honour the democratic wishes of provinces within themselves.

And yes, I don't BELIEVE the pipeline would go through Ossetia specifically, but the general idea is that it would HAVE to go through Georgia (to bring gas from the Caspian Sea to Russia and Europe) and I think Russia wants to keep Georgia in a weak bargaining position vis-a-vis that. The two papers I provide a much more in depth analysis, though they might be boring if one has little interest in the subject

[charliemc]

Thanks so much for sharing this.

Your paper is excellent, by the way. (I've made myself a link to it so I can keep and re-read it.)

You're right that average Americans don't tend to keep 'up' on international affairs, which is deplorable. (sigh)

As disturbing as this is, I'm doubtful about what -- if anything -- American government will do about this...

[emo_snal]

Oh, the American government certainly won't do anything.

If anything they'll help rearm and retrain the Georgian military again when its over probably. Good times.

[snuh]

Great piece. There's been a lot of disinformation about this, most likely because news organizations lack the understanding of such a nuanced situation. I came across a lot of info today, you've done the best job of being concise and knowledgeable.

[emo_snal]

Aw, thank-you very much! Thats quite the compliment!

Yeah the media tends to lack the necessary understanding of the situation to correctly write about it. From what I've seen they seem kind of unsure whether to portray it as Russia or Georgia's fault, usually taking Russia's explanations at face value (which as I've explained above is bullshit). And from what I've heard from random people they're all just left confused "so.. there's this country in between Georgia and Russia and uh.. they both invaded it?!"

all we are saying is give peace a chance

[backasswardz]

I think you are very well informed, surely better than I do, in details. The only thing, I doubt statistics about 40 tanks and 10 aircrafts. Numbers in such cases often being faked. Sadly, America didn't notice the thing meant for it, mainly. Also, it is meant for many minor nation enclaves inside Russia, to frighten and prevent them from thinking of independence.

I wish NATO affiliated Georgia before the shit began.

Selling weapon won't help much, it can only prolong the conflict and make it more bloody. For Saakashvili no way out except losing enclaves in question, thus he would save more human lives.

The most disgusting thing for me personally is anti-Georgian hysteria all over Russia at the moment, our chekist govt is really skilled in mass manipulation and raising hatrid. I am quite a dissident and a white crow.

Re: all we are saying is give peace a chance

[emo_snal]

Yeah I agree the numbers aren't very dependable. I wish I had a better source. Georgia did put two captured pilots on tv though so that can't be fake (and Russia admitted to those two) and even downing two Russian jets on the first day is pretty good.

But its barely an acceptabel outcome for Georgia to give up Ossetia. Look at a map, it'll make Georgia almost a doughtnut with a border very close to their capital and centre of their country. That would be a disasterous strategic situation for them.

Yeah I agree selling them weapons and stuff will only prolong the war, but thats what I think America will do for their ally.

Yeah if Georgia had gotten into NATO first I wonder if NATO would have actually acted on their "an attack one is an attack on all of us" creed.

Re: all we are saying is give peace a chance

[backasswardz]

I agree that for tiny Georgia it would be bad to lose territories. Just, the question is, territories, or people. Besides, Ossetians and Abhazes have been very afraid of Georgians, more than Russians, that's why they began to keep company with Russians. Georgians made a fatal mistake, when they didn't learn how to get along with their neighbours, and Putin took the advantage of the situation. I think, they will be sorry if they agree to get attached to Russia. No many options for them, though. It would be better for them to establish independent states, but I doubt if Putin will allow that.

Re: all we are saying is give peace a chance

[backasswardz]

Putin stays our tzar, not Medvedev.