Annual Oscar Predictions Post (er, sorta)
Oscars tomorrow. Jon Stewart hosting, yay! So, every year I usually try to predict who is going to win these things (and who I think actually deserves it). I did post my predictions a couple of years ago, but didn't last year. So, I guess this is really a semi-annual post. Anyway, once again I haven't seen most of the nominated films (don't think I'm going to watch Crash tonight, either), so this is being done without a lot of info. But I tend to be frighteningly accurate with these things (got all the major ones last year!), so we'll see how it turns out. You can find the nominees here, or you can snag a printable ballot, so you can keep track tomorrow night. So, without further ado:
Actor In A Leading Role
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Philip Seymour Hoffman is pretty much a lock for this award. Now, I know people keep talking about Heath Ledger, and of course Joaquin Phoenix rules, but Hoffman won the Golden Globe and the SAG, so I think this one's pretty much in the bag. Yes, Joaquin Phoenix did win the Musical/Comedy Golden Globe, but my money's still on Hoffman. And I think he should win, too. I actually managed to see Capote, and thought it was fabulous, as was his performance. Plus, if he wins, he has to bark his acceptance speech. It would be one worth watching, for once.
Actor In A Supporting Role
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Will Win: George Clooney (Syriana)
Jake is my long shot for this year. I thought his performance in Brokeback Mountain was absolutely wonderful (aside from that silly mustache, but what can you do?), and I would love to see him win. However, I don't think that's going to happen. My instinct says it will be Clooney, because I don't see him winning Best Director, and I think the Academy will want to give him something. I've also been hearing tons of good things about Matt Dillon, so it's possible (but not likely) that he'll steal it from George. I don't think Paul Giamatti, despite his SAG win, is going to get it, even though he was snubbed for Sideways. But who knows. I guess this one is anybody's game, but it'll probably go to Clooney. But I hope hope hope it goes to Jake instead.
Actress In A Leading Role
Ah, one of those categories where I haven't seen any of the nominated films. So, I will have to go with my instincts here.
Should Win: Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line)
I don't think Charlize Theron will win again, and I think Keira Knightley has even less of a change of winning. Since Reese Witherspoon won both the Golden Globe and the SAG, she is obviously the favorite (everyone seems to be predicting a win for her), and I think the Academy is going to go with her. I would love to see Felicity Huffman win, though, since she is a fabulous actress. I definitely plan to see Transamerica if it ever comes here.
Actress In A Supporting Role
Oh, this category is hard. I've seen two of the films, but have no idea who I think should win.
Should Win: Hmm...out of the films I've seen, I'll say Catherine Keener (Capote--yay, Harper Lee!)
Will Win: Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Weisz won both the Golden Globe and the SAG, so I'm going to guess she'll sweep and take home the Oscar as well. I've heard that Amy Adams was excellent in Junebug, but I don't know if she has a chance at this. I liked both Catherine Keener's and Michelle Williams's performances, but I don't think that either of them will win. This is the hardest category of the entire night for me, right here.
Animated Feature Film
Should Win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Even though I adored Corpse Bride, I think this one's going to go to Wallace and Gromit. And deservedly so. The work that went into this film is so impressive! Every single shot in the film, except for the rabbits floating around in that machine that Wallace uses to catch them, was done by hand with clay. No computer animation on 98% of the thing. Seriously, how impressive is that. And they even wanted to do the floating rabbits practically, but it would have ended up costing more (both money and timewise), so they went with the CG. Plus, all of the W&G shorts have either won or been nominated for Oscars, so I think this one will go to them too. Even the writers of Howl's Moving Castle think so.
Art Direction
Should Win: I thought the art direction in King Kong was awesome. It really brings you into the story, makes you feel like you're right there in the jungle (or on the boat, or whatever). Fantastic sets all around.
Will Win: Tough one. Could be Memoirs of a Geisha, or Pride and Prejudice, or King Kong. Anybody's game, really. But I'd pick King Kong if it was up to me.
Cinematography
Should Win: Either Batman Begins or Brokeback Mountain
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain or Memoirs of a Geisha
Batman Begins was just a gorgeous film, and unfortunately for me, it probably won't win. I did think the cinematography on Brokeback Mountain was also beautiful, all those gorgeous landscape shots, but it may go to Memoirs of a Geisha. I traditionally have bad luck with this category, but I do know that it can't possibly go to The New World, since that movie was supposed to suck hosewater.
Costume Design
Should Win: Hell if I know, I didn't see any of these films. I can't pick one I think should win if I don't know what the costumes looked like, right?
Will Win: I'm going to say that it'll either be Memoirs of a Geisha or Pride and Prejudice. No real reason, except that the academy seems to like period pieces, and I am a big fan of Asian costume design.
Directing
Should Win: Ang Lee
Will Win: Ang Lee deserves this Oscar so much, and I will be very sad if he loses (sorry George Clooney). But I don't think he will. If he does win, I think he gets to accept it from Clint Eastwood again, which will be awesome.
Film Editing
Should Win: I haven't seen any of these films either, argh! Can't pick a should, obviously.
Will Win: No clue, it's anybody's game. Maybe The Constant Gardener? Or Cinderella Man? I don't know.
Makeup
Should Win: The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
Will Win: The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
Didn't really see any of this beyond the trailer, but I think it's going to be this one. Great creature makeup. But for all I know, it'll be Episode III.
Music (Score)
Should Win: John Williams
Will Win: John Williams
As much as I love the Brokeback Mountain score, it's John Williams, people! I think he's going to get it, but I don't know for which film.
Music (Song)
I haven't heard any of these songs, so I can't really pick one.
Sound Editing
Should Win: King Kong
Will Win: King Kong
It could conceivably be War of the Worlds, but somehow I doubt it. There was a lot going on soundwise in King Kong, and I think it was done beautifully, so I hope they will be recognized for it. Sound editing is hard, yo.
Sound Mixing
Should Win: King Kong
Will Win: King Kong
Again, King Kong. The sound mix on this film is really fantastic. It combines all of the different aural elements going on in every scene to make a great whole, especially in the jungle scenes (and the end sequence in New York City), which, despite the surfeit of dinosaurs and giant bugs, are excellent. The main thing you want in a good sound mix is to let the audience hear everything that's going on without the sound getting too muddy. This film does that very well.
Visual Effects
Should Win: King Kong
Will Win: King Kong
Kong was so fabulously done, that I can't see how this movie will lose this one. I mean, you really get a change to connect with him and feel for him, which is really impressive with a digital, non-speaking character. Plus, Weta deserved that Oscar for Gollum in TTT, and they didn't get it, so they need this one.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Should Win: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana (Brokeback Mountain)
Will Win: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana (Brokeback Mountain)
As much as I adore Dan Futterman, and would love to see him win, the Brokeback Mountain script absolutely deserves this award. They took that teeny short story and managed to expand it to feature length, while still keeping the spirit of the story and not bogging it down with too much extra stuff. Near perfect adaptation, and one of the best I've ever seen. I'm very picky about adaptations, too.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Didn't see any of these films, once again, so I can't really pick one. Maybe Goodnight and Good Luck, especially if George doesn't win Best Supporting Actor.
Best Picture
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
I think this one is a no-brainer. I adored this film, and I really want it to win. If it can't win, I'd accept Capote, but I wouldn't be really happy about it. It needs to be Brokeback, people!
Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Foreign Language Film, Short Film (Animated and Live Action)
Once again, I haven't seen any of these, and know almost nothing about most of them, so will not pick in these categories (even though I think March of the Penguins should win for Best Documentary Feature). I'll never do the short film categories, since even Academy members can't even vote in the short film categories without proving they've seen all nominees.
After doing this (and damn it took a long time!), I realized I'll be lucky if I get a third of these right. I've seen maybe five nominated films (and that includes Batman and Star Wars), aside from the animated ones. But it'll be interesting to see how it goes anyway.
Actor In A Leading Role
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Philip Seymour Hoffman is pretty much a lock for this award. Now, I know people keep talking about Heath Ledger, and of course Joaquin Phoenix rules, but Hoffman won the Golden Globe and the SAG, so I think this one's pretty much in the bag. Yes, Joaquin Phoenix did win the Musical/Comedy Golden Globe, but my money's still on Hoffman. And I think he should win, too. I actually managed to see Capote, and thought it was fabulous, as was his performance. Plus, if he wins, he has to bark his acceptance speech. It would be one worth watching, for once.
Actor In A Supporting Role
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Will Win: George Clooney (Syriana)
Jake is my long shot for this year. I thought his performance in Brokeback Mountain was absolutely wonderful (aside from that silly mustache, but what can you do?), and I would love to see him win. However, I don't think that's going to happen. My instinct says it will be Clooney, because I don't see him winning Best Director, and I think the Academy will want to give him something. I've also been hearing tons of good things about Matt Dillon, so it's possible (but not likely) that he'll steal it from George. I don't think Paul Giamatti, despite his SAG win, is going to get it, even though he was snubbed for Sideways. But who knows. I guess this one is anybody's game, but it'll probably go to Clooney. But I hope hope hope it goes to Jake instead.
Actress In A Leading Role
Ah, one of those categories where I haven't seen any of the nominated films. So, I will have to go with my instincts here.
Should Win: Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line)
I don't think Charlize Theron will win again, and I think Keira Knightley has even less of a change of winning. Since Reese Witherspoon won both the Golden Globe and the SAG, she is obviously the favorite (everyone seems to be predicting a win for her), and I think the Academy is going to go with her. I would love to see Felicity Huffman win, though, since she is a fabulous actress. I definitely plan to see Transamerica if it ever comes here.
Actress In A Supporting Role
Oh, this category is hard. I've seen two of the films, but have no idea who I think should win.
Should Win: Hmm...out of the films I've seen, I'll say Catherine Keener (Capote--yay, Harper Lee!)
Will Win: Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Weisz won both the Golden Globe and the SAG, so I'm going to guess she'll sweep and take home the Oscar as well. I've heard that Amy Adams was excellent in Junebug, but I don't know if she has a chance at this. I liked both Catherine Keener's and Michelle Williams's performances, but I don't think that either of them will win. This is the hardest category of the entire night for me, right here.
Animated Feature Film
Should Win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Even though I adored Corpse Bride, I think this one's going to go to Wallace and Gromit. And deservedly so. The work that went into this film is so impressive! Every single shot in the film, except for the rabbits floating around in that machine that Wallace uses to catch them, was done by hand with clay. No computer animation on 98% of the thing. Seriously, how impressive is that. And they even wanted to do the floating rabbits practically, but it would have ended up costing more (both money and timewise), so they went with the CG. Plus, all of the W&G shorts have either won or been nominated for Oscars, so I think this one will go to them too. Even the writers of Howl's Moving Castle think so.
Art Direction
Should Win: I thought the art direction in King Kong was awesome. It really brings you into the story, makes you feel like you're right there in the jungle (or on the boat, or whatever). Fantastic sets all around.
Will Win: Tough one. Could be Memoirs of a Geisha, or Pride and Prejudice, or King Kong. Anybody's game, really. But I'd pick King Kong if it was up to me.
Cinematography
Should Win: Either Batman Begins or Brokeback Mountain
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain or Memoirs of a Geisha
Batman Begins was just a gorgeous film, and unfortunately for me, it probably won't win. I did think the cinematography on Brokeback Mountain was also beautiful, all those gorgeous landscape shots, but it may go to Memoirs of a Geisha. I traditionally have bad luck with this category, but I do know that it can't possibly go to The New World, since that movie was supposed to suck hosewater.
Costume Design
Should Win: Hell if I know, I didn't see any of these films. I can't pick one I think should win if I don't know what the costumes looked like, right?
Will Win: I'm going to say that it'll either be Memoirs of a Geisha or Pride and Prejudice. No real reason, except that the academy seems to like period pieces, and I am a big fan of Asian costume design.
Directing
Should Win: Ang Lee
Will Win: Ang Lee deserves this Oscar so much, and I will be very sad if he loses (sorry George Clooney). But I don't think he will. If he does win, I think he gets to accept it from Clint Eastwood again, which will be awesome.
Film Editing
Should Win: I haven't seen any of these films either, argh! Can't pick a should, obviously.
Will Win: No clue, it's anybody's game. Maybe The Constant Gardener? Or Cinderella Man? I don't know.
Makeup
Should Win: The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
Will Win: The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
Didn't really see any of this beyond the trailer, but I think it's going to be this one. Great creature makeup. But for all I know, it'll be Episode III.
Music (Score)
Should Win: John Williams
Will Win: John Williams
As much as I love the Brokeback Mountain score, it's John Williams, people! I think he's going to get it, but I don't know for which film.
Music (Song)
I haven't heard any of these songs, so I can't really pick one.
Sound Editing
Should Win: King Kong
Will Win: King Kong
It could conceivably be War of the Worlds, but somehow I doubt it. There was a lot going on soundwise in King Kong, and I think it was done beautifully, so I hope they will be recognized for it. Sound editing is hard, yo.
Sound Mixing
Should Win: King Kong
Will Win: King Kong
Again, King Kong. The sound mix on this film is really fantastic. It combines all of the different aural elements going on in every scene to make a great whole, especially in the jungle scenes (and the end sequence in New York City), which, despite the surfeit of dinosaurs and giant bugs, are excellent. The main thing you want in a good sound mix is to let the audience hear everything that's going on without the sound getting too muddy. This film does that very well.
Visual Effects
Should Win: King Kong
Will Win: King Kong
Kong was so fabulously done, that I can't see how this movie will lose this one. I mean, you really get a change to connect with him and feel for him, which is really impressive with a digital, non-speaking character. Plus, Weta deserved that Oscar for Gollum in TTT, and they didn't get it, so they need this one.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Should Win: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana (Brokeback Mountain)
Will Win: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana (Brokeback Mountain)
As much as I adore Dan Futterman, and would love to see him win, the Brokeback Mountain script absolutely deserves this award. They took that teeny short story and managed to expand it to feature length, while still keeping the spirit of the story and not bogging it down with too much extra stuff. Near perfect adaptation, and one of the best I've ever seen. I'm very picky about adaptations, too.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Didn't see any of these films, once again, so I can't really pick one. Maybe Goodnight and Good Luck, especially if George doesn't win Best Supporting Actor.
Best Picture
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
I think this one is a no-brainer. I adored this film, and I really want it to win. If it can't win, I'd accept Capote, but I wouldn't be really happy about it. It needs to be Brokeback, people!
Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Foreign Language Film, Short Film (Animated and Live Action)
Once again, I haven't seen any of these, and know almost nothing about most of them, so will not pick in these categories (even though I think March of the Penguins should win for Best Documentary Feature). I'll never do the short film categories, since even Academy members can't even vote in the short film categories without proving they've seen all nominees.
After doing this (and damn it took a long time!), I realized I'll be lucky if I get a third of these right. I've seen maybe five nominated films (and that includes Batman and Star Wars), aside from the animated ones. But it'll be interesting to see how it goes anyway.