Swing Riding Impact

[canticle]

In 2006, the makeup of Parliament was determined by 15,000 votes in 12 ridings. That was the difference between a Liberal or Conservative Minority. .001% of voters decided the fate of the Government

Comments

[canticle]

Bah, forgot to close off the link, sorry everyone.

[kali_kali]

You can fix it by editing the post. Just click the pencil at the top of the post in the blue box.

[canticle]

Thanks, for some reason I was logged out and was wondering why I couldn't change it.

[suitablyemoname]

Because of the massive realignment happening in Quebec, I'm not sure how well this model can be applied to the upcoming election. Conceivably 30 or more Quebec ridings could not only change hands, but in many cases the party who finished in third (the Conservatives) will leapfrog into first--and by a comfortable margin.

Additionally, this election has a few interesting ridings outside of the Ontario-BC-Quebec flyby. Look at places like Edmonton--Strathcona, where the NDP is trying very hard to get rid of Raheem Jaffer, or Newfoundland, where Danny Williams is working very hard to make sure he isn't on Harper's christmas card list.

[warrioreowyn]

Really? What's Danny up to?

[suitablyemoname]

Trying to kick the federal Tories out of Newfoundland. He's scared Loyola Hearn so much he's retiring, and the Conservatives are set to lose all three of their seats if the polls bear out.

[canticle]

Well, regarding Quebec, the problem is the Bloc protest vote isn't realigning to the Conservatives or Liberals, but the NDP, but the former Liberal support is moving Conservative...realistically, with the way the votes break down, I honestly don't see a lot of change. I think the Bloc will still break through in a lot of ridings with the vote split being more Con and NDP than Con and Lib. But we'll see, it's still early on.

The NDP can try to get rid of Raheem, but unfortunately I don't think they'll be successful. This province is so Conservative to a fault that people willfully ignore the most egrerious moral lapses by their politicians. This Province is as close to the United States in irrational Party Loyalty as one can find in Canada.

[warrioreowyn]

I lived in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (BC) until several months ago, and I doubt it's a swing rinding. Keith Martin (Liberal, current incumbent) is a very strong candidate and someone people tend to like regardless of party affiliation - I've been NDP ever since I could vote and would have a hard time not voting for him if I still lived there.

Vancouver Quadra, where I currently live and which is also listed as a swing riding, was won by the Liberals with nearly 50% of the vote.

If these are the kinds of ridings the Libs are struggling in, I would say they are in trouble.

[canticle]

Um...the margin Keith Martin won by was miniscule at 3.6%. And Liberal party affiliation does count in elections for at least a base of 10% of most voters who go with a candidate, he falls within the margin of error on possible loss/gain.

In fact, he lost ground from the previous election, where his margin of victory was a whopping 4%.

And prior to Keith Martin, the riding was Canadian Alliance by a whopping 20%, and before that Reform by 20%, and before that (when it was formed as a riding), it went NDP by 35%. It is by every definition a Swing Riding.

And WOW, are you EVER off on Vancouver Quadra.

The last election was the 2008 Byelection, which the Liberal won by a whopping 151 votes. It was a .53% percent win.

Stephen Owen was the MP for the riding for a very long time, but his resignation has left it completely wide open. The riding was solidly Stephen Owen, not Liberal.

[warrioreowyn]

Okay, just moved to Van-Quadra and checked the previous election results; it looked solidly Lib from that. Thanks for the tip on the byelection.

And Martin may be reducing his margins, but he's stayed on in the region for a long time for the simple reason that people like him; he's a good guy as politicians go. In terms of parties it may be a swing riding; I am not saying that it is solidly Liberal, but that it is solidly pro-Keith. If he could hold on after the sponsorship scandal, when the Liberal name was mud, he can hold on in spite of Dion being "not a leader" - people are voting for him, not Dion.

[ms_interpret]

I live in that riding now, and I have to agree with you. People LOVE that guy. I've met him once or twice and can see the charm, but his assistant, who I deal with more often? GAH! It's enough to put me off the guy right there.

Now, the only problem I can see, is people here are PISSED RIGHT OFF about Campbell cancelling the fall session of the legislature, and *may* take it out on the federal Liberals. You know how that goes. Anyone smarter than a bag of squirrel droppings should realize that Campbell is clearly a Conservative with the Liberal name, and take it out on them instead.

[domain]

"Manitoba (8 Cons, 3 Libs, 3 NDP): 1 potential gain for the Conservatives in Saint Boniface, and 1 potential Liberal gain in South Winnipeg. Realistically though, Manitoba will probably stay the same."

Here on the ground, Winnipeg south seems somewhat safe for the Cons. If anything it could be Steven Fletchers riding (Charleswood-St James) that is threatened now that Canadian Federation of Agriculture President Bob Friesen is running for the Liberals.

Also, Winnipeg South Centre has been slipping away from the Liberals and this time the Cons have a strong local celebrity candidate running (former Blue Bomber kicker Trevor Kennerd). And in Elmwood-Transcona, Bill Blaikie is retiring and Thomas Steen (former Winnipeg Jet) is running for the Cons.

Winnipeg, at least within city limits, is alot more volatile than you think!

[canticle]

Steven Fletcher beat Glen Murray when the Liberals were more popular than they are now, I don't see that changing when a lesser celebrity than Murray is running for the Liberals.

Bill Blaikie's riding...celebrity or not, I doubt very seriously it will move Liberal or Conservative. There's just no way that is going to happen. While Blaikie largely won on his name towards the end, it's a solid NDP inner city base. Steen is going to have to work his ass off.

Winnipeg South may seem solid Con, but it's a volatile riding.

[penlessej]

I am surprised that Essex is not on the list of swing votes. The Liberals have identified it as a key riding.