I am one of the lucky ones. One of the extremely lucky ones: I make my living as a writer.
It's not the way I dreamed of making a living as a writer*, but the fact of the matter is I get to write geeky stuff (superheroes! Star Trek!) on a daily basis, and take home a paycheck that allows me to pay a modest rent, service my debt (from school and
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Little more for your brain nibbles :)
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http://yuki-onna.livejournal.com/563086.html
And here is John Scalzi's take on the need for publishers. (Note, he is buddies with Wil Wheaton):
http://whatever.scalzi.com/2010/02/03/why-in-fact-publishing-will-not-go-away-anytime-soon-a-deeply-slanted-play-in-three-acts/
Self publishing certainly can work, but the odds there are even worse than they are in professional publishing.
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For most anyone else, take the numbers above and apply minus signs to them. Instead of receiving $5000, you have to spend $5000, etc.
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You can sometimes figure out a baseline print run from the advance because publishers generally will not offer writers advances that they do not think they can earn out-- it doesn't make good business sense to do otherwise. (Hardback + paperback complicates this, of course.) However, some ridiculous percentage of books never earn out their advances, and those writers never see more than the initial advance.
I think it's also important to mention that writers get royalty checks twice a year, and many publishers hang on to the money as long as they can to collect as much interest as possible. Thus, a writer could easily see royalties from July-Dec. '09 in April '10.
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