thats all assuming that WoW is a static target. I figure that a lot of the income of WoW is going to WoW 2.0, which would be the real competition for this fictious title to compete against, and NOT the WoW that people are playing today.
So not only would you have to make a better game than what WoW is now, but a better game than what next gen WoW will be....
and I just don't see that happening on less than 500 mil.
Also consider that success attracts talent, and success allows for picking of the best canidates.
That means that this fake game team of talent is up against the best the industry has to offer.
The best FPS designers go to the bungies, valves, Ids, etc, NOT to the third ranked guys that are trying to dethrown the king on a budget.
The only way to get those top talent guys away from working on the winning IP is money.and lots of it.
So WoW has more money (far more than 100 mil) , more expierence (they are probably more aware of their own mistakes than anyone else) , more success (which brings more talent in),and with an install base.
That sounds like one powered up, full armored, full health, beast that is STILL grinding in its free time, and little dudes are all, I think I could take him if I just used the right tactics.
no way man. not unless you dump the cash. LOTR, EVE, Everquest 2, CoH, TR, Etc etc etc. bloody bodies on the field as this thing keeps getting bigger.
of course it'll collapse under its own weight eventually. and while its rotting corpse festers in the sun, some small fry will step up on it, raise its low level sword and declare victory as if it means something (see Skate vs Tony Hawk ) and someone will cry, "see!! it could be defeated!! and with little effort!!!
Well, there's obviously things I can't talk about, but...
I think Blizzard faces the same exact problem that anyone else making a new MMO faces, in that they would be competing against themselves. If we assume we're competing against the next Blizzard game, then their advantage of post-launch content is a moot point.
The bulk of the cost of creating any game is level and content creation. I reject the idea that you need to catch up to the total amount of content that WoW has, because the fact is that users consume it -- basically, the useful "size" of WoW for me is about 1/3 of the content the expansion has to offer, because I do not play about 2/3 of the game anymore. A game that has the same amount of content as WoW did at launch would be extremely attractive to me because that would be more than I am getting out of WoW right now. So the idea that you have to spend as much as WoW has cumulatively up to the time you launch is a fallacy. Certainly some of that post launch stuff improves the game, but it's not a strictly additive thing.
The trick is to have a high level of polish on core game systems and to have great levels for what you do launch with, and also to have a pipeline to continue creating content to keep up with the user's consumption rates (or at least fast enough to keep them happy).
I also actually don't believe that WoW has the best possible team to make an MMO. They certainly have a great team, but there's at least one other team that has a comparable amount of collective experience as Blizzard, a comparable amount of money, and a sizable (although probably a smaller global) fan base. You can't forget that there have been lots of games that aren't named World of Warcraft and the experience gained there is worth quite a bit, perhaps even worth more than the experience they gained in making WoW.
Except for TR, all the games you cited don't even come close to the budget (and TR flopped for entirely different reasons). EVE actually might be competitive in terms of profitability as a percentage of budget, I don't know. It's certainly not a "bloody body"; it's one of the only MMOs that has sustained constant growth that has not slowed down throughout the game's entire lifetime. CoH likewise enjoys its measure of success. LOTR and EQ2 are more or less head up competitors to WoW. I don't know their profitability numbers but they are still running so I assume they aren't losing too much money at this point.
I don't know if my project will "beat" WoW, but I wouldn't claim that it's fruitless to try to compete with less than $1bil (or, let's even use your number of $500mil). I wouldn't try to compete with WoW with less than $50mil, either, though.
still, I think there are a lot of companies that see the bank that Blizzard is pulling in, and think they can not only tap that same pool, but actually over take WoW with the same sort of overhead that traditional games cost. (acclaim, perpetual, turbine, etc)
There is a big difference between making an MMO that is profitable, and making one that is actually a true competitor with WoW.
From what I understand, many MMOs make money, but no one is doing it at the same scale that WoW is. I could be wrong on this, but I assumed that even successful MMOs like Eve, or CoH are a small fraction of not only the user base, but the income that WoW is bringing in... whos number 2? final fantasy?
I kind of see WoW 2.0 pulling off the same user conversion that Sims 2.0 managed. Both games with millions of users, both with lots of expansion packs, and both that require a hardware upgrade. Now granted, Sims didn't have to bring old Sims over, but it had the other issue of having millions of user created assets that couldn't make the transition.
Of course WoW 2.0 could always pull a Eve and just upgrade the engine and keep the expansions coming....
As far as talent, I think if Blizzard doesn't have the best MMO team in the world, they at least have the best PR that makes it SEEM like they have the best team in the world. either way, its not an asset to take lightly. heck, people have made careers from being "ex-blizzard" what ever the hell that means. ...
Now to just make a successful MMO that DOESN"t beat WoW, that seems like it could be done on the cheap....which of course is why it could be successful to begin with....
it just seems like there is this curve from being successful, to being the market leader, and the money to get the momentum to get over that curve seems oftly costly....
why? well because taking out hits on all those blizzard guys is going to cost a lot of cash. You have to kill them all quickly before they go to ground.
So not only would you have to make a better game than what WoW is now, but a better game than what next gen WoW will be....
and I just don't see that happening on less than 500 mil.
Also consider that success attracts talent, and success allows for picking of the best canidates.
That means that this fake game team of talent is up against the best the industry has to offer.
The best FPS designers go to the bungies, valves, Ids, etc, NOT to the third ranked guys that are trying to dethrown the king on a budget.
The only way to get those top talent guys away from working on the winning IP is money.and lots of it.
So WoW has more money (far more than 100 mil) , more expierence (they are probably more aware of their own mistakes than anyone else) , more success (which brings more talent in),and with an install base.
That sounds like one powered up, full armored, full health, beast that is STILL grinding in its free time, and little dudes are all, I think I could take him if I just used the right tactics.
no way man. not unless you dump the cash. LOTR, EVE, Everquest 2, CoH, TR, Etc etc etc. bloody bodies on the field as this thing keeps getting bigger.
of course it'll collapse under its own weight eventually. and while its rotting corpse festers in the sun, some small fry will step up on it, raise its low level sword and declare victory as if it means something (see Skate vs Tony Hawk ) and someone will cry, "see!! it could be defeated!! and with little effort!!!
ugh.
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I think Blizzard faces the same exact problem that anyone else making a new MMO faces, in that they would be competing against themselves. If we assume we're competing against the next Blizzard game, then their advantage of post-launch content is a moot point.
The bulk of the cost of creating any game is level and content creation. I reject the idea that you need to catch up to the total amount of content that WoW has, because the fact is that users consume it -- basically, the useful "size" of WoW for me is about 1/3 of the content the expansion has to offer, because I do not play about 2/3 of the game anymore. A game that has the same amount of content as WoW did at launch would be extremely attractive to me because that would be more than I am getting out of WoW right now. So the idea that you have to spend as much as WoW has cumulatively up to the time you launch is a fallacy. Certainly some of that post launch stuff improves the game, but it's not a strictly additive thing.
The trick is to have a high level of polish on core game systems and to have great levels for what you do launch with, and also to have a pipeline to continue creating content to keep up with the user's consumption rates (or at least fast enough to keep them happy).
I also actually don't believe that WoW has the best possible team to make an MMO. They certainly have a great team, but there's at least one other team that has a comparable amount of collective experience as Blizzard, a comparable amount of money, and a sizable (although probably a smaller global) fan base. You can't forget that there have been lots of games that aren't named World of Warcraft and the experience gained there is worth quite a bit, perhaps even worth more than the experience they gained in making WoW.
Except for TR, all the games you cited don't even come close to the budget (and TR flopped for entirely different reasons). EVE actually might be competitive in terms of profitability as a percentage of budget, I don't know. It's certainly not a "bloody body"; it's one of the only MMOs that has sustained constant growth that has not slowed down throughout the game's entire lifetime. CoH likewise enjoys its measure of success. LOTR and EQ2 are more or less head up competitors to WoW. I don't know their profitability numbers but they are still running so I assume they aren't losing too much money at this point.
I don't know if my project will "beat" WoW, but I wouldn't claim that it's fruitless to try to compete with less than $1bil (or, let's even use your number of $500mil). I wouldn't try to compete with WoW with less than $50mil, either, though.
Reply
still, I think there are a lot of companies that see the bank that Blizzard is pulling in, and think they can not only tap that same pool, but actually over take WoW with the same sort of overhead that traditional games cost. (acclaim, perpetual, turbine, etc)
There is a big difference between making an MMO that is profitable, and making one that is actually a true competitor with WoW.
From what I understand, many MMOs make money, but no one is doing it at the same scale that WoW is. I could be wrong on this, but I assumed that even successful MMOs like Eve, or CoH are a small fraction of not only the user base, but the income that WoW is bringing in... whos number 2? final fantasy?
I kind of see WoW 2.0 pulling off the same user conversion that Sims 2.0 managed. Both games with millions of users, both with lots of expansion packs, and both that require a hardware upgrade. Now granted, Sims didn't have to bring old Sims over, but it had the other issue of having millions of user created assets that couldn't make the transition.
Of course WoW 2.0 could always pull a Eve and just upgrade the engine and keep the expansions coming....
As far as talent, I think if Blizzard doesn't have the best MMO team in the world, they at least have the best PR that makes it SEEM like they have the best team in the world. either way, its not an asset to take lightly. heck, people have made careers from being "ex-blizzard" what ever the hell that means. ...
Now to just make a successful MMO that DOESN"t beat WoW, that seems like it could be done on the cheap....which of course is why it could be successful to begin with....
it just seems like there is this curve from being successful, to being the market leader, and the money to get the momentum to get over that curve seems oftly costly....
why? well because taking out hits on all those blizzard guys is going to cost a lot of cash. You have to kill them all quickly before they go to ground.
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