I need to write up my Austin GDC notes and will post them here, but that requires a block of free time.
In the meantime, I wanted to save this link because I want to write about it later:
http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=1602585486&sid=1 The main point here is that raiding is a "hardcore" activity:
- The organization effort required is inversely proportional to the level of commitment of a guild's members, but by nature a less committed guild will not be able to muster that amount of organization.
- The cliff is further accentuated by the unending hunger of raiding guilds for fresh meat.
- It's a difficult balance for guilds to maintain: poor attendance means recruiting more, but that can easily lead to worse attendance because being forced to sit out makes you lose interest.
The problem though is that there's a conflating of raiding and progression: PvE progression requires raiding past a certain point, so that's what everyone will eventually aspire to, whether or not they can make that level of commitment to the game.
What solutions are there? Either de-emphasize raiding, or lower the commitment required for raiding, or make raid sizes more flexible. More on this later.