I think most political observers had, until recently, been slow to recognize just how bad things had gotten for Republicans. But the Senate map is really tough for Democrats, with 26 Democratic seats in play next year (including a newly opened seat in Minnesota after Al Franken announced his intention to retire) as compared to just eight Republican ones. Moreover, five of the Democratic-held seats - the ones in West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri and Indiana - are in states that President Trump won by 18 percentage points or more. Just how bad is this map for Democrats? It’s bad enough that it may be the worst Senate map that any party has faced ever, or at least since direct election of senators began in 1913. It’s bad enough that Democrats could conceivably gain 35 or 40 seats in the House … and not pick up the two seats they need in the Senate. <...> If you add the probabilities for each race together, you’ll find that these ratings have Democrats losing an average of about three Senate seats next year. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-democrats-senate-chances-overrated/
https://www.predictit.org/Market/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms
https://www.predictit.org/Market/2703/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2018-midterms
А также анализу Нейта Силвера:
I think most political observers had, until recently, been slow to recognize just how bad things had gotten for Republicans. But the Senate map is really tough for Democrats, with 26 Democratic seats in play next year (including a newly opened seat in Minnesota after Al Franken announced his intention to retire) as compared to just eight Republican ones. Moreover, five of the Democratic-held seats - the ones in West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri and Indiana - are in states that President Trump won by 18 percentage points or more.
Just how bad is this map for Democrats? It’s bad enough that it may be the worst Senate map that any party has faced ever, or at least since direct election of senators began in 1913. It’s bad enough that Democrats could conceivably gain 35 or 40 seats in the House … and not pick up the two seats they need in the Senate. <...> If you add the probabilities for each race together, you’ll find that these ratings have Democrats losing an average of about three Senate seats next year.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-democrats-senate-chances-overrated/
Поживем - увидим.
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Забавно. Так-то выглядит, как обычная биржа, как тот же Intrade (там же ссылка ниже).
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