TS Ingrid
Everyone please give a big round of applause for our ninth named storm, Tropical Storm Ingrid! :D
Ingrid will be struggling against a moderately sheared environment, and her path will be greatly determined by both (a) her future intensification, and (b) the strength of a high pressure ridge developing (perhaps a mite uncharacteristically) over the entire north-central Atlantic ocean.
NHC guidance suggests that the storm will be headed south of the overall model guidance right now, which suggests that they believe it will continue to slowly develop (if at all). A couple of the major models suggested it will turn due north and dissipate, but the NHC disregards these reports. The basics: It'll be headed in the general direction of Cuba for at least the next five days, but probably won't get there in five days or less. It probably won't dissipate. As Ingrid progresses west, she's moving into warmer water, but the shear environment becomes less favorable.
If this storm strengthens, it will be harder for the high pressure ridge to the north of Ingrid to keep her south, and therefore in the event of strengthening, Ingrid will trend WNW/NNW instead of W, like she's going now. If she weakens, or fails to strengthen appreciably (cat 2?), she'll be kept further south by the high pressure ridge.
Explaination: Ingrid (like all tropical cyclones) is a low-pressure weather system. High pressure will tend to push this storm away, but the stronger the storm gets, the more influence it has on its surrounding environment, and so the stronger the high pressure ridge has to be to push it south. (Because of the way the Earth spins, tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and the Gulf of Mexico tend to curve northward, unless influenced by another weather system.)
This is why a tropical depression might be completely dissipated by entering 20kt wind shear...
wind shear: Wind blowing in opposite directions at different altitudes. For instance, at 15,000 feet, the wind could be blowing 20kt NE, while at 60,000 feet, it might be blowing 20kt SW. If you only measured these two altitudes, this would be 40kt of wind shear. Can be good for thunderstorm development, but bad for hurricanes.
...while a strong hurricane might not be affected as much - it tends to shape the environment around it.
Anyway, I have no reason to disagree with the NHC guidance. Tropical storm for the time being. Keep your eye on it.
Ingrid will be struggling against a moderately sheared environment, and her path will be greatly determined by both (a) her future intensification, and (b) the strength of a high pressure ridge developing (perhaps a mite uncharacteristically) over the entire north-central Atlantic ocean.
NHC guidance suggests that the storm will be headed south of the overall model guidance right now, which suggests that they believe it will continue to slowly develop (if at all). A couple of the major models suggested it will turn due north and dissipate, but the NHC disregards these reports. The basics: It'll be headed in the general direction of Cuba for at least the next five days, but probably won't get there in five days or less. It probably won't dissipate. As Ingrid progresses west, she's moving into warmer water, but the shear environment becomes less favorable.
If this storm strengthens, it will be harder for the high pressure ridge to the north of Ingrid to keep her south, and therefore in the event of strengthening, Ingrid will trend WNW/NNW instead of W, like she's going now. If she weakens, or fails to strengthen appreciably (cat 2?), she'll be kept further south by the high pressure ridge.
Explaination: Ingrid (like all tropical cyclones) is a low-pressure weather system. High pressure will tend to push this storm away, but the stronger the storm gets, the more influence it has on its surrounding environment, and so the stronger the high pressure ridge has to be to push it south. (Because of the way the Earth spins, tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and the Gulf of Mexico tend to curve northward, unless influenced by another weather system.)
This is why a tropical depression might be completely dissipated by entering 20kt wind shear...
wind shear: Wind blowing in opposite directions at different altitudes. For instance, at 15,000 feet, the wind could be blowing 20kt NE, while at 60,000 feet, it might be blowing 20kt SW. If you only measured these two altitudes, this would be 40kt of wind shear. Can be good for thunderstorm development, but bad for hurricanes.
...while a strong hurricane might not be affected as much - it tends to shape the environment around it.
Anyway, I have no reason to disagree with the NHC guidance. Tropical storm for the time being. Keep your eye on it.