*cranks the Scorpions*
It's Hurricane Time, folks.
We're looking at a Category 1, potentially a Category 2 (always plan for one Cat higher than the models) hurricane making landfall somewhere between Pensacola and New Orleans, in less than 48 hours. The models are training up pretty well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm actually move in over Gulf Shores, AL...but we'll see.
Invest 93L, which I posted about previously, seems to be organizing over the Gulf of Mexico. It's currently undergoing a transition from a cold-core, nontropical low pressure system to a warm-core tropical system. When it finishes doing that (ETA: < 48 hrs), it'll probably start to strengthen rapidly in this low shear environment (<5-10kt!) over the warm waters (+30C!) of the Gulf of Mexico. By "rapidly", I mean from Tropical Depression strength (which it's currently at, technically - though it's not tropical right now) to at least Cat 1 hurricane by landfall.
Of course, you folks remember what happened with the Texas storm, so intensification could be even more rapid than previous predicted.
Interests along the northern Gulf Coast should rush hurricane preparations to completion. Speaking of which, I'm gonna go get some gasoline before they name this thing and everyone freaks out.
Jerry, by the way. It'll be named Hurricane Jerry.
We're looking at a Category 1, potentially a Category 2 (always plan for one Cat higher than the models) hurricane making landfall somewhere between Pensacola and New Orleans, in less than 48 hours. The models are training up pretty well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm actually move in over Gulf Shores, AL...but we'll see.
Invest 93L, which I posted about previously, seems to be organizing over the Gulf of Mexico. It's currently undergoing a transition from a cold-core, nontropical low pressure system to a warm-core tropical system. When it finishes doing that (ETA: < 48 hrs), it'll probably start to strengthen rapidly in this low shear environment (<5-10kt!) over the warm waters (+30C!) of the Gulf of Mexico. By "rapidly", I mean from Tropical Depression strength (which it's currently at, technically - though it's not tropical right now) to at least Cat 1 hurricane by landfall.
Of course, you folks remember what happened with the Texas storm, so intensification could be even more rapid than previous predicted.
Interests along the northern Gulf Coast should rush hurricane preparations to completion. Speaking of which, I'm gonna go get some gasoline before they name this thing and everyone freaks out.
Jerry, by the way. It'll be named Hurricane Jerry.