The state of things...Part 2
So, Germany is running wild through Russian satellites and then Russia itself. Stalin really doesn't have the ability to stop him, so his only hope is to play for time, trade land for time, and hope for winter. Hitler, on the other hand, would have been received in much of that territory as a liberator if he hadn't been intent upon killing everything in sight. Certainly the Baltic states welcomed him (in general) and had he allowed them to be independent, or at least autonomous, they would have been his ally. Of course, that wasn't Hitler's plan.
Now, at this point, Russia was still viewed as a minor power, and while the western allies hoped Stalin could bleed the Germany war machine they didn't originally expect Stalin to win. They sent him supplies mainly because that was about all they could do. They couldn't force a return to the continent, so they just pushed Russia to fight on.
Now, fast forward a bit. Stalin (and General Winter) were able to scrap together enough to stall the German machine. Hitler helped by completely screwing around with his armies, moving troops here and there without any sense of what was needed. In the end, between the help he received, the intelligence (from the west) that Japan wouldn't attack in the east, and some dumb luck, Stalin managed to hold off the Germans. Stalingrad was clearly the turning point, but there was still a mess of fighting and dying to do. As Stalin started pushing the Germans back he also took revenge on his own people who hadn't (in his mind) properly supported him. When he reached the borders of other countries he installed new governments that he could control. Ukraine was one of those.
Stalin got addicted to the idea that the allies began to consider him important. They played to his ego, because they wanted him to absorb the German assault since that also relieved some defenses of the Atlantic Wall. Stalin began to demand more...and he got it. His addiction grew. Suddenly Russia was what it had never been before. Russia was relevant, and considered a world power. He liked that. He liked that a lot.
The ultimate surrender to Stalin was Eisenhower's decision that he wouldn't attempt to take Berlin. Stalin was offered what he considered the ultimate prize. Between that and the fact that he got to meet with Churchill and FDR made him feel Really Important, and there is no brew more powerful and toxic to a dictator. He'd been given free reign, and a blank check to support his addiction.
Ultimately, as we know, the Russians took Berlin, and before they allowed the western allies to have their zones they installed Communists in every possible niche in the government, not always on the throne but in a place to be the power behind the throne. The cold war had begun, and Russia was one of two Super Powers. Stalin liked that. He liked that a lot. It was likely a very fragile facade, but he managed to keep it up, pushing here and there to keep the allies off guard as he attempted to spread "Communism" and increase his own power. The blockade in Berlin, the attempt to take over Greece, the list is endless.
Now, there's clearly a bunch more...Korea, China, Vietnam et al. All of those were just more of the same, with Stalin, and later Khrushchev trying to use that power to spread their own influence. Setting aside the Cuban Missile Crisis, they held their own most of the time and won their share.
So...fast forward to the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was bound to happen, simply because the economy couldn't support what they were trying to do, and too many people in the "occupied countries" were fighting back. Berlin was an example, but not remotely the only one. In any case, the Soviet Union collapsed, and Russia went down too. There was, and still is, complete confusion. In all of that, the regional ethnic groups began to believe that maybe freedom was actually possible. Russia wasn't in a position to stop them. Europe was starting to open the door, and the former eastern bloc countries suddenly had a viable option. Poland was likely the first, but it became an example of what could be done, and the rest of them started working. Gradually "democratic" Europe began to expand to the east, and Russia was again becoming irrelevant. That's Really Important.
Now, we come to today, although I'm skipping again. Putin is old time Russian, growing up under the Communist regime and considering that the state is the ultimate power. He learned that harsh punishment was the only appropriate response, and within the KGB and related institutions, he learned it well. There were no limits to their power behind the iron curtain, and like Stalin, he really liked that environment. In short, "It's good to be the king."
So...the Ukraine is seen as a breakaway mob, and they belong in that "sphere of influence" that dates back to the late 30's. Putin is simply enforcing his rightful power to govern a land mass that he believes should be guided by what's good for Russia. He doesn't remotely care what is good for Ukraine, or anybody else. That is the mentality that guides his thinking. "When in doubt, send more troops. Oppression will bring these people back in line. They simply need to be shown who is in charge!"
Couple that with his experience where the rest of the world just stood by...Hungary in 1954, Berlin in 1953, and all the others, and Putin's actions make perfect sense.
There are only two options here. The first, not necessarily the best, is a military confrontation. Putin doesn't think it would ever come to that, even if people told him to his face that they're willing to send troops. If that happened, he would ultimately sit in his chair and ask himself "How could this happen?" and he wouldn't have an answer. The whole mess is simply beyond his comprehension.
The second option is some form of talk and sanctions. It's likely that won't work simply because Putin would just disregard it. He's dealing with an internal problem (as he sees it) and it's nobody else's business what's going on. That was pretty much Hitler's perspective too, and he also got away with it.
So...in the end this is all about Putin wanting to re-claim Russia's place as a super power. He want respect, but see no reason to earn it. He longs for the old days when Russian could rattle the saber and the whole world trembled. Those days are gone, but he'll never understand that. It's not in his vocabulary. Given events, there's no real reason to respect Russia. What respect they receive is either because they control the spigot for oil and gas, or because, like paying protection to the mob, it's cheaper to pay than to challenge the bully. Ukraine just might be the place the bully gets challenged, but I doubt that a military response will end well for anyone.
Now, at this point, Russia was still viewed as a minor power, and while the western allies hoped Stalin could bleed the Germany war machine they didn't originally expect Stalin to win. They sent him supplies mainly because that was about all they could do. They couldn't force a return to the continent, so they just pushed Russia to fight on.
Now, fast forward a bit. Stalin (and General Winter) were able to scrap together enough to stall the German machine. Hitler helped by completely screwing around with his armies, moving troops here and there without any sense of what was needed. In the end, between the help he received, the intelligence (from the west) that Japan wouldn't attack in the east, and some dumb luck, Stalin managed to hold off the Germans. Stalingrad was clearly the turning point, but there was still a mess of fighting and dying to do. As Stalin started pushing the Germans back he also took revenge on his own people who hadn't (in his mind) properly supported him. When he reached the borders of other countries he installed new governments that he could control. Ukraine was one of those.
Stalin got addicted to the idea that the allies began to consider him important. They played to his ego, because they wanted him to absorb the German assault since that also relieved some defenses of the Atlantic Wall. Stalin began to demand more...and he got it. His addiction grew. Suddenly Russia was what it had never been before. Russia was relevant, and considered a world power. He liked that. He liked that a lot.
The ultimate surrender to Stalin was Eisenhower's decision that he wouldn't attempt to take Berlin. Stalin was offered what he considered the ultimate prize. Between that and the fact that he got to meet with Churchill and FDR made him feel Really Important, and there is no brew more powerful and toxic to a dictator. He'd been given free reign, and a blank check to support his addiction.
Ultimately, as we know, the Russians took Berlin, and before they allowed the western allies to have their zones they installed Communists in every possible niche in the government, not always on the throne but in a place to be the power behind the throne. The cold war had begun, and Russia was one of two Super Powers. Stalin liked that. He liked that a lot. It was likely a very fragile facade, but he managed to keep it up, pushing here and there to keep the allies off guard as he attempted to spread "Communism" and increase his own power. The blockade in Berlin, the attempt to take over Greece, the list is endless.
Now, there's clearly a bunch more...Korea, China, Vietnam et al. All of those were just more of the same, with Stalin, and later Khrushchev trying to use that power to spread their own influence. Setting aside the Cuban Missile Crisis, they held their own most of the time and won their share.
So...fast forward to the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was bound to happen, simply because the economy couldn't support what they were trying to do, and too many people in the "occupied countries" were fighting back. Berlin was an example, but not remotely the only one. In any case, the Soviet Union collapsed, and Russia went down too. There was, and still is, complete confusion. In all of that, the regional ethnic groups began to believe that maybe freedom was actually possible. Russia wasn't in a position to stop them. Europe was starting to open the door, and the former eastern bloc countries suddenly had a viable option. Poland was likely the first, but it became an example of what could be done, and the rest of them started working. Gradually "democratic" Europe began to expand to the east, and Russia was again becoming irrelevant. That's Really Important.
Now, we come to today, although I'm skipping again. Putin is old time Russian, growing up under the Communist regime and considering that the state is the ultimate power. He learned that harsh punishment was the only appropriate response, and within the KGB and related institutions, he learned it well. There were no limits to their power behind the iron curtain, and like Stalin, he really liked that environment. In short, "It's good to be the king."
So...the Ukraine is seen as a breakaway mob, and they belong in that "sphere of influence" that dates back to the late 30's. Putin is simply enforcing his rightful power to govern a land mass that he believes should be guided by what's good for Russia. He doesn't remotely care what is good for Ukraine, or anybody else. That is the mentality that guides his thinking. "When in doubt, send more troops. Oppression will bring these people back in line. They simply need to be shown who is in charge!"
Couple that with his experience where the rest of the world just stood by...Hungary in 1954, Berlin in 1953, and all the others, and Putin's actions make perfect sense.
There are only two options here. The first, not necessarily the best, is a military confrontation. Putin doesn't think it would ever come to that, even if people told him to his face that they're willing to send troops. If that happened, he would ultimately sit in his chair and ask himself "How could this happen?" and he wouldn't have an answer. The whole mess is simply beyond his comprehension.
The second option is some form of talk and sanctions. It's likely that won't work simply because Putin would just disregard it. He's dealing with an internal problem (as he sees it) and it's nobody else's business what's going on. That was pretty much Hitler's perspective too, and he also got away with it.
So...in the end this is all about Putin wanting to re-claim Russia's place as a super power. He want respect, but see no reason to earn it. He longs for the old days when Russian could rattle the saber and the whole world trembled. Those days are gone, but he'll never understand that. It's not in his vocabulary. Given events, there's no real reason to respect Russia. What respect they receive is either because they control the spigot for oil and gas, or because, like paying protection to the mob, it's cheaper to pay than to challenge the bully. Ukraine just might be the place the bully gets challenged, but I doubt that a military response will end well for anyone.