Well this has been an interesting past 24 hours.
I deliberately try not to get political. Apparently I've been accused of telling everyone how great Australia is compared to the rest of the world and while I don't think we're awesome (5 prime ministers in 5 years for example) I think we do some things rather well.
With that rider, what the hell were you thinking UK? More specifically, what the hell were you thinking England?
For some context, the UK has just voted to leave the EU. The pound has gone into freefall, stock markets have plummeted, searches for "what is the EU" have gone up and politicans have begun to back away from promises.
My personal opinion is the UK has just screwed itself and the people who voted to leave are suddenly running around going "oh shit, oh shit!" To be honest, I never paid much attention to the campaign. Firstly, I'm Australian, so have no say in the vote and secondly, I never thought (like most people it seems) they would actually vote to leave.
There is much talk here about the people who voted "leave" and never thought it would happen and now today they're in shock and have said they would vote a different way if they could do it again. And that is one of the problems, people voting to essentially say they are dissatified, but not really knowing what that means.
Immigration apparently was a big deciding factor. People complaining that immigrants were coming into the UK and stealing their jobs and getting their government benefits. That quite possibly could be true and I'm sure there are some people who play the system. According to wikipedia most migration in the EU is circular in that people move where the jobs are, work, then move on when the jobs run out. But also look at what sorts of job migrant workers tend to do. Generally they come there because the local people don't want to do them.
Another big factor was the UK NHS or National Health Service with it straining under the load of all these people. Doing some research into it, yes it is creaking a little, but more due to government cuts and an aging population. One of the big leave proponents has already stated that their advertising campaign of "the 350M pounds a week we put into the EU will be put into the NHS" was not quite correct, so the politicians have already begun their "Oh, well we said this, but it might not be so simple" back tracking.
Let's look at what the UK has lost. The biggest one will be open borders with the EU. Suddenly trade tarrifs will begin to rear their head. Companies that were housed in the UK for easy access to the European market will start to look at the logistics of relocating to Europe. There are 740 million people in Europe with about 65 million of them in the UK. I know which market I'd be focusing on.
Related to that is the cheap travel UK people currently have to Europe. As an Australian visiting Europe, I have stared at envy at the "EU citizens" lines. Don't worry UK people, you can keep us company now. One estimate I saw said it will add 240 pounds to an airfare in Europe - customs, immigration, security, plus the actual changes to the flight airspace, it adds up. When you're looking at an airfare which may have only been 50 pounds to begin with, it will be a huge difference.
Apparently one of the biggest proponents to leave were the older generations. They could be in for a shock with their retirements to the south of France and Spain.
Reciprocal health care, that's gone for UK people too. Again, it's ok because the people most affected will be the ones spending most of their time in the EU such as the retirees and they obviously knew what they were doing.
I think Ireland is going to benefit out of it. Companies that want an English speaking country but access to the EU, they'll move sideways to Ireland.
I'm not sure what the UK thinks they're going to gain. They're still going to have to deal with Europe and my guess will be Europe will hit them with a big stick for leaving. It's given Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland a big reason to part company with England. Gibraltar almost certainly will do a deal with Spain.
My guess is people in the UK think magically everything will suddenly improve because they won't find themselves being dictated to by Europe, but they still will be because, even if they don't want to admit it, they are part of Europe. What they have done is lost their voice in how Europe will act.
One of the leave proponents was saying yesterday that this will help foster better ties with the Commonwealth. Umm, I'm not sure how. I live in a Commonwealth country, we've had to forge our own trade relationships with Europe and we'll treat you just like another country. About the only time the Commonwealth does anything is every four years during the Commonwealth Games. It is kind of amusing to think that the UK wants to substitute one conglomeration of countries (the EU) for another (the Commonwealth).
So what happens now? An excellent question. The next few steps are political. The UK PM has said he will resign, but not immediately, which I think is good, keeps a familiar face at the helm. Parliment needs to agree with the referrendum. There is a small chance they could reject it, but that would be extremely unlikely, they are suppose to be the will of the people. The PM goes to the EU to say they want out and that begins about two years of legal wrangling to figure out how to seperate the two.
My suspicion is the EU will also hit the UK hard for seperating in an effort to make it unfavourable for other countries who want to do the same. Then the UK will forge it's own deals with the EU in a similar fashion to Switzerland and Norway. Ironically most reports seem to think one of the details will be the UK keeps up its immigration levels.
What does this mean for the rest of the world? Well, there will be a big chunk of uncertainy in the financial markets as everyone tries to figure out what it means. Some people will make a lot of money off of market manipulations and fear-mongering, but over time, the world will go on. My guess is the UK will suffer. A lot of companies use it as a stepping stone into Europe and if they're still after that market, they'll move.
I think the UK has shot itself in the foot and part of me thinks that maybe in another 10-15 years they might find themselves putting their hand up for nomination again. Scotland has a legitimate case for succeeding, so does Northern Ireland, so that may be another question about what happens with them. It will be interesting to see what the UK does. A lot of negative people there have been blaming the EU, but that is going to be taken away now, so I'm not sure who they'll focus their attention on next.
One of the side effects of this is I think it will be a wakeup call for people who don't think something will happen. We have an Australian election coming up in another week. I can't see any upsets with that, but who knows. More interestingly is the US election in November. I suspect a lot of people who were yesterday morning going "It will never happen" suddenly found themselves sitting up straight with a cold sweat.
2016 is definitely an interesting year and we're only halfway through it.
With that rider, what the hell were you thinking UK? More specifically, what the hell were you thinking England?
For some context, the UK has just voted to leave the EU. The pound has gone into freefall, stock markets have plummeted, searches for "what is the EU" have gone up and politicans have begun to back away from promises.
My personal opinion is the UK has just screwed itself and the people who voted to leave are suddenly running around going "oh shit, oh shit!" To be honest, I never paid much attention to the campaign. Firstly, I'm Australian, so have no say in the vote and secondly, I never thought (like most people it seems) they would actually vote to leave.
There is much talk here about the people who voted "leave" and never thought it would happen and now today they're in shock and have said they would vote a different way if they could do it again. And that is one of the problems, people voting to essentially say they are dissatified, but not really knowing what that means.
Immigration apparently was a big deciding factor. People complaining that immigrants were coming into the UK and stealing their jobs and getting their government benefits. That quite possibly could be true and I'm sure there are some people who play the system. According to wikipedia most migration in the EU is circular in that people move where the jobs are, work, then move on when the jobs run out. But also look at what sorts of job migrant workers tend to do. Generally they come there because the local people don't want to do them.
Another big factor was the UK NHS or National Health Service with it straining under the load of all these people. Doing some research into it, yes it is creaking a little, but more due to government cuts and an aging population. One of the big leave proponents has already stated that their advertising campaign of "the 350M pounds a week we put into the EU will be put into the NHS" was not quite correct, so the politicians have already begun their "Oh, well we said this, but it might not be so simple" back tracking.
Let's look at what the UK has lost. The biggest one will be open borders with the EU. Suddenly trade tarrifs will begin to rear their head. Companies that were housed in the UK for easy access to the European market will start to look at the logistics of relocating to Europe. There are 740 million people in Europe with about 65 million of them in the UK. I know which market I'd be focusing on.
Related to that is the cheap travel UK people currently have to Europe. As an Australian visiting Europe, I have stared at envy at the "EU citizens" lines. Don't worry UK people, you can keep us company now. One estimate I saw said it will add 240 pounds to an airfare in Europe - customs, immigration, security, plus the actual changes to the flight airspace, it adds up. When you're looking at an airfare which may have only been 50 pounds to begin with, it will be a huge difference.
Apparently one of the biggest proponents to leave were the older generations. They could be in for a shock with their retirements to the south of France and Spain.
Reciprocal health care, that's gone for UK people too. Again, it's ok because the people most affected will be the ones spending most of their time in the EU such as the retirees and they obviously knew what they were doing.
I think Ireland is going to benefit out of it. Companies that want an English speaking country but access to the EU, they'll move sideways to Ireland.
I'm not sure what the UK thinks they're going to gain. They're still going to have to deal with Europe and my guess will be Europe will hit them with a big stick for leaving. It's given Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland a big reason to part company with England. Gibraltar almost certainly will do a deal with Spain.
My guess is people in the UK think magically everything will suddenly improve because they won't find themselves being dictated to by Europe, but they still will be because, even if they don't want to admit it, they are part of Europe. What they have done is lost their voice in how Europe will act.
One of the leave proponents was saying yesterday that this will help foster better ties with the Commonwealth. Umm, I'm not sure how. I live in a Commonwealth country, we've had to forge our own trade relationships with Europe and we'll treat you just like another country. About the only time the Commonwealth does anything is every four years during the Commonwealth Games. It is kind of amusing to think that the UK wants to substitute one conglomeration of countries (the EU) for another (the Commonwealth).
So what happens now? An excellent question. The next few steps are political. The UK PM has said he will resign, but not immediately, which I think is good, keeps a familiar face at the helm. Parliment needs to agree with the referrendum. There is a small chance they could reject it, but that would be extremely unlikely, they are suppose to be the will of the people. The PM goes to the EU to say they want out and that begins about two years of legal wrangling to figure out how to seperate the two.
My suspicion is the EU will also hit the UK hard for seperating in an effort to make it unfavourable for other countries who want to do the same. Then the UK will forge it's own deals with the EU in a similar fashion to Switzerland and Norway. Ironically most reports seem to think one of the details will be the UK keeps up its immigration levels.
What does this mean for the rest of the world? Well, there will be a big chunk of uncertainy in the financial markets as everyone tries to figure out what it means. Some people will make a lot of money off of market manipulations and fear-mongering, but over time, the world will go on. My guess is the UK will suffer. A lot of companies use it as a stepping stone into Europe and if they're still after that market, they'll move.
I think the UK has shot itself in the foot and part of me thinks that maybe in another 10-15 years they might find themselves putting their hand up for nomination again. Scotland has a legitimate case for succeeding, so does Northern Ireland, so that may be another question about what happens with them. It will be interesting to see what the UK does. A lot of negative people there have been blaming the EU, but that is going to be taken away now, so I'm not sure who they'll focus their attention on next.
One of the side effects of this is I think it will be a wakeup call for people who don't think something will happen. We have an Australian election coming up in another week. I can't see any upsets with that, but who knows. More interestingly is the US election in November. I suspect a lot of people who were yesterday morning going "It will never happen" suddenly found themselves sitting up straight with a cold sweat.
2016 is definitely an interesting year and we're only halfway through it.