BSI Analysis: French Government Plans to Clear Calais Migrant Camp by Year’s End
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BSI Analysis: French Government Plans to Clear Calais Migrant Camp by Year’s End, Decision Could Drive Heightened Stowaway Risk at Other European Ferry Ports
The French government announced that authorities will clear the migrant camp outside the port of Calais, currently home to more than 6,000 migrants, by the end of the year. While the action will likely reduce both the risk of stowaway introduction and the risk of supply chain interruptions at the seaport, BSI anticipates that the camp’s removal could have an undesired ballooning effect, driving the above risks higher at other ports providing cargo ferry service between the United Kingdom and mainland Europe. Ports that would most likely see an increased risk of stowaway introduction into cargo include the port of Dunkirk in France and the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium.
Over the past two years, BSI has routinely noted heightened stowaway introduction risks at other seaports in the region immediately following major law enforcement activity at Calais. The extent of the increased risk is directly proportional to the scale of the law enforcement activity. When officers previously cleared about a third of the Calais migrant camp and removed the makeshift housing in the area, Belgian authorities reported an uptick in stowaway arrests outside Zeebrugge port over the next three months, which exceeded annual arrests in the previous year. The French government pledged to create new camps located around the nation to house the migrants currently living in the Calais camp, though there is currently a large deficit in the number of spaces available for Calais migrants.
While the French government is taking an effective step to reduce the risk of stowaway introduction and supply chain disruption at the port of Calais, it is highly likely that the clearing of the migrant camp alone will not be enough to reduce the overall risk of stowaway introduction in France. Without further supporting actions, including a rapid increase in the number of alternative migrant housing areas and increased law enforcement presence near at-risk seaports like Dunkirk, the government’s actions may simply shift the risks to other areas rather than fully address the problem.