Phoenix will become the next Detroit
Lately i haven't posted much on the housing bust; everyone can see what's going on. This article confirms my anecdotal suspicions. Here's the money shot: "John Graham, president of Sunbelt Holdings, said he sees flat growth as good news because he thought the Valley had lost 200,000 people in the past few years."
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A move to fix Valley growth projections
Analysts revise methods, find no population rise since 2007
by Catherine Reagor - Nov. 18, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic
Metropolitan Phoenix's population has remained basically flat since 2007.
That calculation will generate its own set of questions in an area with an economy based on growth. At the same time, it may be the first accurate estimate of population growth here in years.
This latest population estimate is the conclusion of an 18-month analysis by more than 30 of the state's top economists and business and government leaders, who are trying to fix Arizona's method for tracking population. Their report, "Influx/Outflux: Metropolitan Phoenix," was presented Tuesday at an Urban Land Institute Arizona meeting.
Problems with the formula used to track the number of people moving in and out of Arizona in recent years led to inflated population figures. This exacerbated shortfalls in a state budget built on sales-tax projections.
Authors of the study used a new formula based on different data. Results of the 2010 census will be the best measure of the new formula's accuracy.
"Clearly, we don't know exactly how many people we have," said Rick Brammer, a partner with Applied Economics.
David Stocker, research director with ULI's Center for Balanced Development in the West, said this new effort is not intended to pre-empt the 2010 census. But it's a report to "help many make more informed decisions."
Accurate population estimates are crucial to planning for the state's future. Taxes, freeways, government and business budgets, as well as housing and commercial developments, are all based on how many people are expected to move here.
The news that metro Phoenix's population has remained flat since 2007 follows years of explosive growth. The area was averaging 60,000 to 100,000 new residents a year from 1999 to 2004, before population models went off-track. The Valley accounts for almost 80 percent of Arizona's population.
John Graham, president of Sunbelt Holdings, said he sees flat growth as good news because he thought the Valley had lost 200,000 people in the past few years
Discussing the new report at Tuesday's meeting, Lattie Coor, chairman of the Center for the Future of Arizona, said, "It's still too early to call whether the slowdown in population growth is a blip, like in 1980s, or is it the start of a new growth dynamic for the region."
Growth projections came into question in June 2008, when a Republic analysis found the method for tracking and forecasting the state's population, based on homebuilding permits and housing-vacancy numbers, was not accurate. The heavy influx of investors during the housing boom had driven up both numbers. Housing vacancies had grown so much that building permits became a misleading indicator of actual population.
The Urban Land Institute Arizona is a real-estate think tank that examines land-use issues. The new report was compiled by the institute's Center for Balanced Development in the West.
The report also found too much reliance on housing data to calculate population estimates.
In order to generate more accurate population estimates and projections, authors of the report recommend focusing on other key indicators: employment; live births; deaths; undocumented immigrants; school enrollment; utility customers; and, most importantly, household size and available housing, or total number of homes, instead of housing vacancies and building permits.
The importance of accurate population estimates, according to the report, can be illustrated in terms of related revenue and spending projec- tions.
For example, in metro Phoenix the difference between 1 percent population growth and a 1 percent drop could mean a swing of $1.5 billion in projected sales-tax revenue and billions more in business revenue.
Several years ago, state and census estimates said a record 196,000 people moved to the Phoenix area during the height of the housing boom in 2005. That startling figure led to projections for the Valley's population to more than double to 12 million by 2030.
However, by 2006, the widening gap between government-spending plans and incoming tax revenue indicated the area clearly wasn't growing at that rate.
The ULI report piggybacks on a state task force created by Gov. Janet Napolitano in 2006 to investigate Arizona's population numbers.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/11/18/20091118population1118.html
---------------
A move to fix Valley growth projections
Analysts revise methods, find no population rise since 2007
by Catherine Reagor - Nov. 18, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic
Metropolitan Phoenix's population has remained basically flat since 2007.
That calculation will generate its own set of questions in an area with an economy based on growth. At the same time, it may be the first accurate estimate of population growth here in years.
This latest population estimate is the conclusion of an 18-month analysis by more than 30 of the state's top economists and business and government leaders, who are trying to fix Arizona's method for tracking population. Their report, "Influx/Outflux: Metropolitan Phoenix," was presented Tuesday at an Urban Land Institute Arizona meeting.
Problems with the formula used to track the number of people moving in and out of Arizona in recent years led to inflated population figures. This exacerbated shortfalls in a state budget built on sales-tax projections.
Authors of the study used a new formula based on different data. Results of the 2010 census will be the best measure of the new formula's accuracy.
"Clearly, we don't know exactly how many people we have," said Rick Brammer, a partner with Applied Economics.
David Stocker, research director with ULI's Center for Balanced Development in the West, said this new effort is not intended to pre-empt the 2010 census. But it's a report to "help many make more informed decisions."
Accurate population estimates are crucial to planning for the state's future. Taxes, freeways, government and business budgets, as well as housing and commercial developments, are all based on how many people are expected to move here.
The news that metro Phoenix's population has remained flat since 2007 follows years of explosive growth. The area was averaging 60,000 to 100,000 new residents a year from 1999 to 2004, before population models went off-track. The Valley accounts for almost 80 percent of Arizona's population.
John Graham, president of Sunbelt Holdings, said he sees flat growth as good news because he thought the Valley had lost 200,000 people in the past few years
Discussing the new report at Tuesday's meeting, Lattie Coor, chairman of the Center for the Future of Arizona, said, "It's still too early to call whether the slowdown in population growth is a blip, like in 1980s, or is it the start of a new growth dynamic for the region."
Growth projections came into question in June 2008, when a Republic analysis found the method for tracking and forecasting the state's population, based on homebuilding permits and housing-vacancy numbers, was not accurate. The heavy influx of investors during the housing boom had driven up both numbers. Housing vacancies had grown so much that building permits became a misleading indicator of actual population.
The Urban Land Institute Arizona is a real-estate think tank that examines land-use issues. The new report was compiled by the institute's Center for Balanced Development in the West.
The report also found too much reliance on housing data to calculate population estimates.
In order to generate more accurate population estimates and projections, authors of the report recommend focusing on other key indicators: employment; live births; deaths; undocumented immigrants; school enrollment; utility customers; and, most importantly, household size and available housing, or total number of homes, instead of housing vacancies and building permits.
The importance of accurate population estimates, according to the report, can be illustrated in terms of related revenue and spending projec- tions.
For example, in metro Phoenix the difference between 1 percent population growth and a 1 percent drop could mean a swing of $1.5 billion in projected sales-tax revenue and billions more in business revenue.
Several years ago, state and census estimates said a record 196,000 people moved to the Phoenix area during the height of the housing boom in 2005. That startling figure led to projections for the Valley's population to more than double to 12 million by 2030.
However, by 2006, the widening gap between government-spending plans and incoming tax revenue indicated the area clearly wasn't growing at that rate.
The ULI report piggybacks on a state task force created by Gov. Janet Napolitano in 2006 to investigate Arizona's population numbers.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/11/18/20091118population1118.html