Elections and Livejournal.....
....looking back over the past 6 or so years, it looks like the majority of my posting has been in relation to US elections.
With midterms closing on us, there is no reason to change that now!
How you look at the election cycle is likely to depend on your partisan bent; this is a rough year for Congressional Democrats.
The current House of Representatives split is 233-199, with 3 vacancies. Even the most partisan Democratic polling shows the Republicans with about 230 safe seats--- with another 17 in toss up territory. I doubt those split evenly, given gaps in enthusiasm and the spending patterns to date-- I personally think it'll end up 239-196. Things that would indicate a broader Republican victory- if they're doing well in marginal Senate contests in places like Colorado, the turnout motivation may make the House electorate slightly more conservative.
The Senate picture is a bit more jumbled. Most polling show both parties can rely on there being 46 solid Republican seats, 44 solid Democrat seats, and 10 contentious races that will decide the fate of the Senate.
Democrats over the past 60 days have spent very heavily chasing two pipe dreams-- the open Georgia and the McConnell seat in Kentucky, in the hopes that flipping one or both of them would immunize the current Senate majority from being overturned. The Kentucky seat has moved steadily back towards McConnell, despite a storm of money being spent against him-- the Perdue-Nunn seat hasn't budged an inch, really, in terms of how the Republican is polling-- the Dem numbers are up and down between polls done by the same organization, but Nunn has led in only 1 of the last 7 polls-- by an organization that had Nunn leading by more than twice as large a margin in their prior poll of the race. It is shaping up to be an election where the level of Democrat motivation is going to tell the final tale-- if Democrats were 2008/2012 mobilized, they could win it. Realistically, bad outlooks nationally will limit the turnout of minority voters-- the people who have to drive a Democrat to win in Georgia.
With those two reach seats looking increasingly less likely (barring some scandal) Democrats look to Kansas for a sort of victory-- with the Dem out of the race, and an Independent running against a Republican might be able to play spoiler, with the support of Democrats. The problem is the independent in question is a life-long Dole Republican, and will undoubtedly caucus with Republicans in the Senate. The absolute best outcome for Dems is either a 50-50 Senate (very unrealistic) or a 51-49 Senate, with an Ormann victory serving to try to moderate a Republican Senate majority. Ormann does lead, but there is anecdotal evidence that his lead is narrowing. The next few polls from Kansas should tell a great deal, as the Democrat has been formally removed from the ballot. I'll go ahead and say Ormann wins in Kansas, and a Republican loses a Senate election in Kansas for the first time since 1936.
What, though, beyond Kansas, is in reach for Democrats to flip? Pretty much nothing.
There are losses they can and will anticipate. They're not going to retain Arkansas- they spend money here, like it is a contest, but I fully expect the plug to be pulled on Mark Pryor any day now. Louisiana may be contestable, but it becomes harder to justify the costs of campaigning there when the incumbent Democrat has led in only one of the last ten polls. The startling turn of things in Iowa needs to be stopped, to keep a previously safe brick in the fol.
On the flip-side, I expect that New Hampshire is the Republican version of Arkansas-- a bit of a pipe dream, as Brown hasn't led a single poll to my knowledge-- even if he has halved the margins in some of the contests. Losing a state by 4% instead of 8% isn't really an improvement, if you can't budge off that 4% margin. Paradoxically, the next two statewide polls in New Hampshire may have a strong impact on the Louisiana Senate race-- every dollar spent to shore up a seat that should be quite safe, is a dollar that can't be spent in a seat that is increasingly difficult to justify spending major money on retaining.
Democrats in early summer decided that they would try a two tier approach to November-- first, to see if it was possible to help close some of the perceived enthusiasm gap, to help bolster the cause of all Democratic candidates; second, to use advocacy ads to get Republicans in contested seats dirty, early-- the idea being that if you can get RepubliKochicans stuck in people's minds, it could become a resonant theme . Unfortunately for Democrats, it seems to have added up to a whole lot of nothing so far.
We're 35 days out; some tough decisions are going to have to be made by both parties-- I expect Democrats to pull money out of Arkansas very soon, but try to stick with Landrieu until the last week or two. The money from Republicans will flow from Arkansas to Iowa, or perhaps Colorado.
My final Senate projections: Republican pick ups in Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska. The loss of Kansas prevents an outright Republican majority, but Ormann caucuses with Republicans.
Narrow losses in Colorado, Iowa, and Kansas prevent Republicans from making this a Senate wave election. Good news for Democrats? They solidify their hold on a North Carolina seat that should have been a Republican 'get' this cycle.
Barring something strange, we're in for a far more deeply divided government than we have today.
With midterms closing on us, there is no reason to change that now!
How you look at the election cycle is likely to depend on your partisan bent; this is a rough year for Congressional Democrats.
The current House of Representatives split is 233-199, with 3 vacancies. Even the most partisan Democratic polling shows the Republicans with about 230 safe seats--- with another 17 in toss up territory. I doubt those split evenly, given gaps in enthusiasm and the spending patterns to date-- I personally think it'll end up 239-196. Things that would indicate a broader Republican victory- if they're doing well in marginal Senate contests in places like Colorado, the turnout motivation may make the House electorate slightly more conservative.
The Senate picture is a bit more jumbled. Most polling show both parties can rely on there being 46 solid Republican seats, 44 solid Democrat seats, and 10 contentious races that will decide the fate of the Senate.
Democrats over the past 60 days have spent very heavily chasing two pipe dreams-- the open Georgia and the McConnell seat in Kentucky, in the hopes that flipping one or both of them would immunize the current Senate majority from being overturned. The Kentucky seat has moved steadily back towards McConnell, despite a storm of money being spent against him-- the Perdue-Nunn seat hasn't budged an inch, really, in terms of how the Republican is polling-- the Dem numbers are up and down between polls done by the same organization, but Nunn has led in only 1 of the last 7 polls-- by an organization that had Nunn leading by more than twice as large a margin in their prior poll of the race. It is shaping up to be an election where the level of Democrat motivation is going to tell the final tale-- if Democrats were 2008/2012 mobilized, they could win it. Realistically, bad outlooks nationally will limit the turnout of minority voters-- the people who have to drive a Democrat to win in Georgia.
With those two reach seats looking increasingly less likely (barring some scandal) Democrats look to Kansas for a sort of victory-- with the Dem out of the race, and an Independent running against a Republican might be able to play spoiler, with the support of Democrats. The problem is the independent in question is a life-long Dole Republican, and will undoubtedly caucus with Republicans in the Senate. The absolute best outcome for Dems is either a 50-50 Senate (very unrealistic) or a 51-49 Senate, with an Ormann victory serving to try to moderate a Republican Senate majority. Ormann does lead, but there is anecdotal evidence that his lead is narrowing. The next few polls from Kansas should tell a great deal, as the Democrat has been formally removed from the ballot. I'll go ahead and say Ormann wins in Kansas, and a Republican loses a Senate election in Kansas for the first time since 1936.
What, though, beyond Kansas, is in reach for Democrats to flip? Pretty much nothing.
There are losses they can and will anticipate. They're not going to retain Arkansas- they spend money here, like it is a contest, but I fully expect the plug to be pulled on Mark Pryor any day now. Louisiana may be contestable, but it becomes harder to justify the costs of campaigning there when the incumbent Democrat has led in only one of the last ten polls. The startling turn of things in Iowa needs to be stopped, to keep a previously safe brick in the fol.
On the flip-side, I expect that New Hampshire is the Republican version of Arkansas-- a bit of a pipe dream, as Brown hasn't led a single poll to my knowledge-- even if he has halved the margins in some of the contests. Losing a state by 4% instead of 8% isn't really an improvement, if you can't budge off that 4% margin. Paradoxically, the next two statewide polls in New Hampshire may have a strong impact on the Louisiana Senate race-- every dollar spent to shore up a seat that should be quite safe, is a dollar that can't be spent in a seat that is increasingly difficult to justify spending major money on retaining.
Democrats in early summer decided that they would try a two tier approach to November-- first, to see if it was possible to help close some of the perceived enthusiasm gap, to help bolster the cause of all Democratic candidates; second, to use advocacy ads to get Republicans in contested seats dirty, early-- the idea being that if you can get RepubliKochicans stuck in people's minds, it could become a resonant theme . Unfortunately for Democrats, it seems to have added up to a whole lot of nothing so far.
We're 35 days out; some tough decisions are going to have to be made by both parties-- I expect Democrats to pull money out of Arkansas very soon, but try to stick with Landrieu until the last week or two. The money from Republicans will flow from Arkansas to Iowa, or perhaps Colorado.
My final Senate projections: Republican pick ups in Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska. The loss of Kansas prevents an outright Republican majority, but Ormann caucuses with Republicans.
Narrow losses in Colorado, Iowa, and Kansas prevent Republicans from making this a Senate wave election. Good news for Democrats? They solidify their hold on a North Carolina seat that should have been a Republican 'get' this cycle.
Barring something strange, we're in for a far more deeply divided government than we have today.