(no subject)

[westaredsolong]

hep-th/9409195 30 Sep 94
1. Classical Theory
S. W. Hawking
In these lectures Roger Penrose and I will put forward our related but rather dierent
viewpoints on the nature of space and time. We shall speak alternately and shall give three
lectures each, followed by a discussion on our dierent approaches. I should emphasize that
these will be technical lectures. We shall assume a basic knowledge of general relativity
and quantum theory.
There is a short article by Richard Feynman describing his experiences at a conference
on general relativity. I think it was the Warsaw conference in 1962. It commented very
unfavorably on the general competence of the people there and the relevance of what
they were doing. That general relativity soon acquired a much better reputation, and
more interest, is in a considerable measure because of Roger's work. Up to then, general
relativity had been formulated as a messy set of partial dierential equations in a single
coordinate system. People were so pleased when they found a solution that they didn't
care that it probably had no physical signicance. However, Roger brought in modern
concepts like spinors and global methods. He was the rst to show that one could discover
general properties without solving the equations exactly. It was his rst singularity theorem
that introduced me to the study of causal structure and inspired my classical work on
singularities and black holes.
I think Roger and I pretty much agree on the classical work. However, we dier in
our approach to quantum gravity and indeed to quantum theory itself. Although I'm
regarded as a dangerous radical by particle physicists for proposing that there may be loss
of quantum coherence I'm denitely a conservative compared to Roger. I take the positivist
viewpoint that a physical theory is just a mathematical model and that it is meaningless
to ask whether it corresponds to reality. All that one can ask is that its predictions should
be in agreement with observation. I think Roger is a Platonist at heart but he must answer
for himself.
Although there have been suggestions that spacetime may have a discrete structure
I see no reason to abandon the continuum theories that have been so successful. General
relativity is a beautiful theory that agrees with every observation that has been made. It
may require modications on the Planck scale but I don't think that will aect many of
the predictions that can be obtained from it. It may be only a low energy approximation
to some more fundemental theory, like string theory, but I think string theory has been
over sold. First of all, it is not clear that general relativity, when combined with various
other elds in a supergravity theory, can not give a sensible quantum theory. Reports of
1

the death of supergravity are exaggerations. One year everyone believed that supergravity
was nite. The next year the fashion changed and everyone said that supergravity was
bound to have divergences even though none had actually been found. My second reason
for not discussing string theory is that it has not made any testable predictions. By
contrast, the straight forward application of quantum theory to general relativity, which I
will be talking about, has already made two testable predictions. One of these predictions,
the development of small perturbations during in
ation, seems to be conrmed by recent
observations of
uctuations in the microwave background. The other prediction, that
black holes should radiate thermally, is testable in principle. All we have to do is nd a
primordial black hole. Unfortunately, there don't seem many around in this neck of the
woods. If there had been we would know how to quantize gravity.
Neither of these predictions will be changed even if string theory is the ultimate
theory of nature. But string theory, at least at its current state of development, is quite
incapable of making these predictions except by appealing to general relativity as the low
energy eective theory. I suspect this may always be the case and that there may not be
any observable predictions of string theory that can not also be predicted from general
relativity or supergravity. If this is true it raises the question of whether string theory is a
genuine scientic theory. Is mathematical beauty and completeness enough in the absence
of distinctive observationally tested predictions. Not that string theory in its present form
is either beautiful or complete.
For these reasons, I shall talk about general relativity in these lectures. I shall concentrate
on two areas where gravity seems to lead to features that are completely dierent
from other eld theories. The rst is the idea that gravity should cause spacetime to have
a begining and maybe an end. The second is the discovery that there seems to be intrinsic
gravitational entropy that is not the result of coarse graining. Some people have claimed
that these predictions are just artifacts of the semi classical approximation. They say that
string theory, the true quantum theory of gravity, will smear out the singularities and will
introduce correlations in the radiation from black holes so that it is only approximately
thermal in the coarse grained sense. It would be rather boring if this were the case. Gravity
would be just like any other eld. But I believe it is distinctively dierent, because
it shapes the arena in which it acts, unlike other elds which act in a xed spacetime
background. It is this that leads to the possibility of time having a begining. It also leads
to regions of the universe which one can't observe, which in turn gives rise to the concept
of gravitational entropy as a measure of what we can't know.
In this lecture I shall review the work in classical general relativity that leads to these
ideas. In the second and third lectures I shall show how they are changed and extended
2

when one goes to quantum theory. Lecture two will be about black holes and lecture three
will be on quantum cosmology.
The crucial technique for investigating singularities and black holes that was introduced
by Roger, and which I helped develop, was the study of the global causal structure
of spacetime.
Time
Space
Null geodesics through p
generating part of
Null geodesic in (p) which
does not go back to p and has
no past end point
Point removed
from spacetime
Chronological
future
p +
.
I (p)
+I (p)
+
.
I
Dene I+(p) to be the set of all points of the spacetime M that can be reached from p by
future directed time like curves. One can think of I+(p) as the set of all events that can
be in
uenced by what happens at p. There are similar denitions in which plus is replaced
by minus and future by past. I shall regard such denitions as self evident.
.
I +(S)
q
p
+I (S)
.
q
+I (S)
I +(S)
timelike curve
All timelike curves from q leave I +(S)
.
I +(S) can't be timelike I +(S) can't be spacelike
.
One now considers the boundary I_+(S)of the future of a set S. It is fairly easy to
see that this boundary can not be time like. For in that case, a point q just outside the
boundary would be to the future of a point p just inside. Nor can the boundary of the
3

future be space like, except at the set S itself. For in that case every past directed curve
from a point q, just to the future of the boundary, would cross the boundary and leave the
future of S. That would be a contradiction with the fact that q is in the future of S.
q
+
.
I(S)null geodesic segment in
+I (S)
future end point of generators of
.
I
+(S)
q
+I (S)
+
.
I(S)null geodesic segment in
One therefore concludes that the boundary of the future is null apart from at S itself.
More precisely, if q is in the boundary of the future but is not in the closure of S there
is a past directed null geodesic segment through q lying in the boundary. There may be
more than one null geodesic segment through q lying in the boundary, but in that case q
will be a future end point of the segments. In other words, the boundary of the future of
S is generated by null geodesics that have a future end point in the boundary and pass
into the interior of the future if they intersect another generator. On the other hand, the
null geodesic generators can have past end points only on S. It is possible, however, to
have spacetimes in which there are generators of the boundary of the future of a set S that
never intersect S. Such generators can have no past end point.
A simple example of this is Minkowski space with a horizontal line segment removed.
If the set S lies to the past of the horizontal line, the line will cast a shadow and there
will be points just to the future of the line that are not in the future of S. There will be
a generator of the boundary of the future of S that goes back to the end of the horizontal
4

+
.
I
+I (S)
line removed from
Minkowski space
generator of (S)
with no end point on S
+
.
Igenerators of (S)
with past end point on S
S
line. However, as the end point of the horizontal line has been removed from spacetime,
this generator of the boundary will have no past end point. This spacetime is incomplete,
but one can cure this by multiplying the metric by a suitable conformal factor near the
end of the horizontal line. Although spaces like this are very articial they are important
in showing how careful you have to be in the study of causal structure. In fact Roger
Penrose, who was one of my PhD examiners, pointed out that a space like that I have just
described was a counter example to some of the claims I made in my thesis.
To show that each generator of the boundary of the future has a past end point on
the set one has to impose some global condition on the causal structure. The strongest
and physically most important condition is that of global hyperbolicity.
q
p
Ç+I (p) _
I (q)
An open set U is said to be globally hyperbolic if:
1) for every pair of points p and q in U the intersection of the future of p and the past
of q has compact closure. In other words, it is a bounded diamond shaped region.
2) strong causality holds on U . That is there are no closed or almost closed time like
curves contained in U .
5

p
every timelike curve
intersects S (t)
The physical signicance of global hyperbolicity comes from the fact that it implies
that there is a family of Cauchy surfaces (t)for U . A Cauchy surface for U is a space
like or null surface that intersects every time like curve in U once and once only. One can
predict what will happen in U from data on the Cauchy surface, and one can formulate a
well behaved quantum eld theory on a globally hyperbolic background. Whether one can
formulate a sensible quantum eld theory on a non globally hyperbolic background is less
clear. So global hyperbolicity may be a physical necessity. But my view point is that one
shouldn't assume it because that may be ruling out something that gravity is trying to
tell us. Rather one should deduce that certain regions of spacetime are globally hyperbolic
from other physically reasonable assumptions.
The signicance of global hyperbolicity for singularity theorems stems from the following.
S (t)
q
p
geodesic of
maximum length
6

Let U be globally hyperbolic and let p and q be points of U that can be joined by a
time like or null curve. Then there is a time like or null geodesic between p and q which
maximizes the length of time like or null curves from p to q. The method of proof is to
show the space of all time like or null curves from p to q is compact in a certain topology.
One then shows that the length of the curve is an upper semi continuous function on this
space. It must therefore attain its maximum and the curve of maximum length will be a
geodesic because otherwise a small variation will give a longer curve.
r
p
non-minimal
q
minimal geodesic
q geodesic
without conjugate points
geodesic g
point conjugate
to p along .
neighbouring
geodesic
p
r
point conjugate to p
One can now consider the second variation of the length of a geodesic
. One can show
that d can be varied to a longer curve if there is an innitesimally neighbouring geodesic
from p which intersects d again at a point r between p and q.The point r is said to be
conjugate to p. One can illustrate this by considering two points p and q on the surface of
the Earth. Without loss of generality one can take p to be at the north pole. Because the
Earth has a positive denite metric rather than a Lorentzian one, there is a geodesic of
minimal length, rather than a geodesic of maximum length. This minimal geodesic will be
a line of longtitude running from the north pole to the point q. But there will be another
geodesic from p to q which runs down the back from the north pole to the south pole and
then up to q. This geodesic contains a point conjugate to p at the south pole where all the
geodesics from p intersect. Both geodesics from p to q are stationary points of the length
under a small variation. But now in a positive denite metric the second variation of a
geodesic containing a conjugate point can give a shorter curve from p to q.Thus, in the
example of the Earth, we can deduce that the geodesic that goes down to the south pole
and then comes up is not the shortest curve from p to q. This example is very obvious.
However, in the case of spacetime one can show that under certain assumptions there
7

ought to be a globally hyperbolic region in which there ought to be conjugate points on
every geodesic between two points. This establishes a contradiction which shows that the
assumption of geodesic completeness, which can be taken as a denition of a non singular
spacetime, is false.
The reason one gets conjugate points in spacetime is that gravity is an attractive force.
It therefore curves spacetime in such a way that neighbouring geodesics are bent towards
each other rather than away. One can see this from the Raychaudhuri or Newman-Penrose
equation, which I will write in a unied form.
Raychaudhuri -Newman -Penrose equation
dß
dv
= 2 + ij ij +
1
n
Rablalb
where n = 2 for null geodesics
n = 3 for timelike geodesics
Here v is an ane parameter along a congruence of geodesics, with tangent vector la
which are hypersurface orthogonal. The quantity ß is the average rate of convergence of
the geodesics, while . measures the shear. The term Rablalb gives the direct gravitational
eect of the matter on the convergence of the geodesics.
Einstein equation
1
Rab - 2 gabR =8Tab
Weak Energy Condition
Tabv ab
v
. 0
a
for any timelike vector v.
By the Einstein equations, it will be non negative for any null vector la if the matter obeys
the so called weak energy condition. This says that the energy density T00 is non negative
in any frame. The weak energy condition is obeyed by the classical energy momentum
tensor of any reasonable matter, such as a scalar or electro magnetic eld or a
uid with
8

a reasonable equation of state. It may not however be satised locally by the quantum
mechanical expectation value of the energy momentum tensor. This will be relevant in my
second and third lectures.
Suppose the weak energy condition holds, and that the null geodesics from a point p
begin to converge again and that ß has the positive value 0. Then the Newman Penrose
equation would imply that the convergence ß would become innite at a point q within an
1
ane parameter distance 0
if the null geodesic can be extended that far.
1
If ß = 0 at v = v0 then ß . 1+v0v . Thus there is a conjugate point
before v = v0 + 1 .
q
p
neighbouring geodesics
meeting at q
future end point
of in (p)
crossing region
of light cone
inside (p)
+Ig
g +I
Innitesimally neighbouring null geodesics from p will intersect at q. This means the point
q will be conjugate to p along the null geodesic d joining them. For points on d beyond
the conjugate point q there will be a variation of d that gives a time like curve from p.
Thus d can not lie in the boundary of the future of p beyond the conjugate point q.So d
will have a future end point as a generator of the boundary of the future of p.
The situation with time like geodesics is similar, except that the strong energy condition
that is required to make Rablalb non negative for every time like vector la is, as
its name suggests, rather stronger. It is still however physically reasonable, at least in an
averaged sense, in classical theory. If the strong energy condition holds, and the time like
geodesics from p begin converging again, then there will be a point q conjugate to p.
Finally there is the generic energy condition. This says that rst the strong energy
condition holds. Second, every time like or null geodesic encounters some point where
9

Strong Energy Condition
1
Tabv ab a
v
vvaT
. 2
there is some curvature that is not specially aligned with the geodesic. The generic energy
condition is not satised by a number of known exact solutions. But these are rather
special. One would expect it to be satised by a solution that was "generic” in an appropriate
sense. If the generic energy condition holds, each geodesic will encounter a region
of gravitational focussing. This will imply that there are pairs of conjugate points if one
can extend the geodesic far enough in each direction.
The Generic Energy Condition
1. The strong energy condition holds.
2. Every timelike or null geodesic contains a point where l[aRb]cd[elf ]lcld =0. 6
One normally thinks of a spacetime singularity as a region in which the curvature
becomes unboundedly large. However, the trouble with that as a denition is that one
could simply leave out the singular points and say that the remaining manifold was the
whole of spacetime. It is therefore better to dene spacetime as the maximal manifold on
which the metric is suitably smooth. One can then recognize the occurrence of singularities
by the existence of incomplete geodesics that can not be extended to innite values of the
ane parameter.
Denition of Singularity
A spacetime is singular if it is timelike or null geodesically incomplete, but
can not be embedded in a larger spacetime.
This denition re
ects the most objectionable feature of singularities, that there can be
particles whose history has a begining or end at a nite time. There are examples in which
geodesic incompleteness can occur with the curvature remaining bounded, but it is thought
that generically the curvature will diverge along incomplete geodesics. This is important if
one is to appeal to quantum eects to solve the problems raised by singularities in classical
general relativity.
10

Between 1965 and 1970 Penrose and I used the techniques I have described to prove
a number of singularity theorems. These theorems had three kinds of conditions. First
there was an energy condition such as the weak, strong or generic energy conditions. Then
there was some global condition on the causal structure such as that there shouldn't be
any closed time like curves. And nally, there was some condition that gravity was so
strong in some region that nothing could escape.
Singularity Theorems
1. Energy condition.
2. Condition on global structure.
3. Gravity strong enough to trap a region.
This third condition could be expressed in various ways.
outgoing rays
diverging
outgoing rays
diverging
ingoing rays
converging
Normal closed 2 surface
ingoing and outgoing
rays converging
Closed trapped surface
One way would be that the spatial cross section of the universe was closed, for then there
was no outside region to escape to. Another was that there was what was called a closed
trapped surface. This is a closed two surface such that both the ingoing and out going null
geodesics orthogonal to it were converging. Normally if you have a spherical two surface
11

in Minkowski space the ingoing null geodesics are converging but the outgoing ones are
diverging. But in the collapse of a star the gravitational eld can be so strong that the
light cones are tipped inwards. This means that even the out going null geodesics are
converging.
The various singularity theorems show that spacetime must be time like or null
geodesically incomplete if dierent combinations of the three kinds of conditions hold.
One can weaken one condition if one assumes stronger versions of the other two. I shall
illustrate this by describing the Hawking-Penrose theorem. This has the generic energy
condition, the strongest of the three energy conditions. The global condition is fairly weak,
that there should be no closed time like curves. And the no escape condition is the most
general, that there should be either a trapped surface or a closed space like three surface.
qevery past directed
timelike curve from q
intersects S
H (S)
D (S)
S
+
+
For simplicity, I shall just sketch the proof for the case of a closed space like three
surface S. One can dene the future Cauchy development D+(S) to be the region of points
q from which every past directed time like curve intersects S. The Cauchy development
is the region of spacetime that can be predicted from data on S. Now suppose that the
future Cauchy development was compact. This would imply that the Cauchy development
would have a future boundary called the Cauchy horizon, H+(S). By an argument similar
to that for the boundary of the future of a point the Cauchy horizon will be generated by
null geodesic segments without past end points.
However, since the Cauchy development is assumed to be compact, the Cauchy horizon
will also be compact. This means that the null geodesic generators will wind round and
12

limit null geodesic l
H (S)+
round inside a compact set. They will approach a limit null geodesic f that will have
no past or future end points in the Cauchy horizon. But if f were geodesically complete
the generic energy condition would imply that it would contain conjugate points p and
q. Points on f beyond p and q could be joined by a time like curve. But this would be
a contradiction because no two points of the Cauchy horizon can be time like separated.
Therefore either f is not geodesically complete and the theorem is proved or the future
Cauchy development of S is not compact.
In the latter case one can show there is a future directed time like curve, d from S that
never leaves the future Cauchy development of S. A rather similar argument shows that
d can be extended to the past to a curve that never leaves the past Cauchy development
D(S).
Now consider a sequence of point xn on d tending to the past and a similar sequence yn
tending to the future. For each value of n the points xn and yn are time like separated and
are in the globally hyperbolic Cauchy development of S. Thus there is a time like geodesic
of maximum length n from xn to yn .All the n will cross the compact space like surface
S. This means that there will be a time like geodesic f in the Cauchy development which is
a limit of the time like geodesics n.Either f will be incomplete, in which case the theorem
is proved. Or it will contain conjugate poin because of the generic energy condition. But
in that case n would contain conjugate points for n suciently large. This would be
a contradiction because the n are supposed to be curves of maximum length. One can
therefore conclude that the spacetime is time like or null geodesically incomplete. In other
words there is a singularity.
The theorems predict singularities in two situations. One is in the future in the
13

point at infinity
point at infinity
S
timelike curve
H (S)+
H (S)
_
D (S)
_
D (S)+
g
llimit geodesic
y
n
n
x
gravitational collapse of stars and other massive bodies. Such singularities would be an
14

end of time, at least for particles moving on the incomplete geodesics. The other situation
in which singularities are predicted is in the past at the begining of the present expansion of
the universe. This led to the abandonment of attempts (mainly by the Russians) to argue
that there was a previous contracting phase and a non singular bounce into expansion.
Instead almost everyone now believes that the universe, and time itself, had a begining at
the Big Bang. This is a discovery far more important than a few miscellaneous unstable
particles but not one that has been so well recognized by Nobel prizes.
The prediction of singularities means that classical general relativity is not a complete
theory. Because the singular points have to be cut out of the spacetime manifold one can
not dene the eld equations there and can not predict what will come out of a singularity.
With the singularity in the past the only way to deal with this problem seems to be to
appeal to quantum gravity. I shall return to this in my third lecture. But the singularities
that are predicted in the future seem to have a property that Penrose has called, Cosmic
Censorship. That is they conveniently occur in places like black holes that are hidden
from external observers. So any break down of predictability that may occur at these
singularities won't aect what happens in the outside world, at least not according to
classical theory.
Cosmic Censorship
Nature abhors a naked singularity
However, as I shall show in the next lecture, there is unpredictability in the quantum
theory. This is related to the fact that gravitational elds can have intrinsic entropy which
is not just the result of coarse graining. Gravitational entropy, and the fact that time has
a begining and may have an end, are the two themes of my lectures because they are the
ways in which gravity is distinctly dierent from other physical elds.
The fact that gravity has a quantity that behaves like entropy was rst noticed in the
purely classical theory. It depends on Penrose's Cosmic Censorship Conjecture. This is
unproved but is believed to be true for suitably general initial data and equations of state.
I shall use a weak form of Cosmic Censorship.
One makes the approximation of treating the region around a collapsing star as asymptotically

at. Then, as Penrose showed, one can conformally embed the spacetime manifold M

in a manifold with boundary M. The boundary @M will be a null surface and will consist
of two components, future and past null innity, called I+ and I. I shall say that weak
Cosmic Censorship holds if two conditions are satised. First, it is assumed that the null
15

no future end points for
black hole singularity
event horizon
+
__
+
I ( )+_
generators of event horizon
past end point of
generators of event horizon
geodesic generators of I+ are complete in a certain conformal metric. This implies that
observers far from the collapse live to an old age and are not wiped out by a thunderbolt
+
singularity sent out from the collapsing star. Second, it is assumed that the past of Iis globally hyperbolic. This means there are no naked singularities that can be seen from
large distances. Penrose has a stronger form of Cosmic Censorship which assumes that the
whole spacetime is globally hyperbolic. But the weak form will suce for my purposes.
Weak Cosmic Censorship
1. I+ and I- are complete.
2. I(I+) is globally hyperbolic.
If weak Cosmic Censorship holds the singularities that are predicted to occur in gravitational
collapse can't be visible from I+ . This means that there must be a region of
spacetime that is not in the past of I+ . This region is said to be a black hole because no
light or anything else can escape from it to innity. The boundary of the black hole region
is called the event horizon. Because it is also the boundary of the past of I+ the event
horizon will be generated by null geodesic segments that may have past end points but
don't have any future end points. It then follows that if the weak energy condition holds
16

the generators of the horizon can't be converging. For if they were they would intersect
each other within a nite distance.
This implies that the area of a cross section of the event horizon can never decrease
with time and in general will increase. Moreover if two black holes collide and merge
together the area of the nal black hole will be greater than the sum of the areas of the
original black holes.
black hole
event horizon
infalling
matter
infalling
matter
two original
black holes
final black hole
A1 A2
A3
A1
A2
A2 ³ A1 A3 ³ A1+A2
This is very similar to the behavior of entropy according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
Entropy can never decrease and the entropy of a total system is greater than the
sum of its constituent parts.
Second Law of Black Hole Mechanics
A
. 0
Second Law of Thermodynamics
S
. 0
The similarity with thermodynamics is increased by what is called the First Law of
Black Hole Mechanics. This relates the change in mass of a black hole to the change in the
area of the event horizon and the change in its angular momentum and electric charge. One
can compare this to the First Law of Thermodynamics which gives the change in internal
energy in terms of the change in entropy and the external work done on the system.
One sees that if the area of the event horizon is analogous to entropy then the quantity
analogous to temperature is what is called the surface gravity of the black hole . Thisisa
17

First Law of Black Hole Mechanics
.
E = A +
J +Q
8.
First Law of Thermodynamics
E = TS + PV
measure of the strength of the gravitational eld on the event horizon. The similarity with
thermodynamics is further increased by the so called Zeroth Law of Black Hole Mechanics:
the surface gravity is the same everywhere on the event horizon of a time independent
black hole.
Zeroth Law of Black Hole Mechanics
. is the same everywhere on the horizon of a time independent
black hole.
Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics
T is the same everywhere for a system in thermal equilibrium.
Encouraged by these similarities Bekenstein proposed that some multiple of the area
of the event horizon actually was the entropy of a black hole. He suggested a generalized
Second Law: the sum of this black hole entropy and the entropy of matter outside black
holes would never decrease.
Generalised Second Law
(S + cA) . 0
However this proposal was not consistent. If black holes have an entropy proportional to
horizon area they should also have a non zero temperature proportional to surface gravity.
Consider a black hole that is in contact with thermal radiation at a temperature lower
than the black hole temperature. The black hole will absorb some of the radiation but
won't be able to send anything out, because according to classical theory nothing can get
18

low temperature
thermal radiation
radiation being absorbed
by black hole
black hole
out of a black hole. One thus has heat
ow from the low temperature thermal radiation to
the higher temperature black hole. This would violate the generalized Second Law because
the loss of entropy from the thermal radiation would be greater than the increase in black
hole entropy. However, as we shall see in my next lecture, consistency was restored when
it was discovered that black holes are sending out radiation that was exactly thermal.
This is too beautiful a result to be a coincidence or just an approximation. So it seems
that black holes really do have intrinsic gravitational entropy. As I shall show, this is
related to the non trivial topology of a black hole. The intrinsic entropy means that
gravity introduces an extra level of unpredictability over and above the uncertainty usually
associated with quantum theory. So Einstein was wrong when he said \God does not play
dice". Consideration of black holes suggests, not only that God does play dice, but that
He sometimes confuses us by throwing them where they can't be seen.
19

20

2. Quantum Black Holes
S. W. Hawking
In my second lecture I'm going to talk about the quantum theory of black holes.
It seems to lead to a new level of unpredictability in physics over and above the usual
uncertainty associated with quantum mechanics. This is because black holes appear to
have intrinsic entropy and to lose information from our region of the universe. I should say
that these claims are controversial: many people working on quantum gravity, including
almost all those that entered it from particle physics, would instinctively reject the idea
that information about the quantum state of a system could be lost. However they have
had very little success in showing how information can get out of a black hole. Eventually
I believe they will be forced to accept my suggestion that it is lost, just as they were forced
to agree that black holes radiate, which was against all their preconceptions.
I should start by reminding you about the classical theory of black holes. We saw in
the last lecture that gravity is always attractive, at least in normal situations. If gravity
had been sometimes attractive and sometimes repulsive, like electro-dynamics, we would
never notice it at all because it is about 1040 times weaker. It is only because gravity always
has the same sign that the gravitational force between the particles of two macroscopic
bodies like ourselves and the Earth add up to give a force we can feel.
The fact that gravity is attractive means that it will tend to draw the matter in the
universe together to form objects like stars and galaxies. These can support themselves for
a time against further contraction by thermal pressure, in the case of stars, or by rotation
and internal motions, in the case of galaxies. However, eventually the heat or the angular
momentum will be carried away and the object will begin to shrink. If the mass is less
than about one and a half times that of the Sun the contraction can be stopped by the
degeneracy pressure of electrons or neutrons. The object will settle down to be a white
dwarf or a neutron star respectively. However, if the mass is greater than this limit there
is nothing that can hold it up and stop it continuing to contract. Once it has shrunk to a
certain critical size the gravitational eld at its surface will be so strong that the light cones
will be bent inward as in the diagram on the following page. I would have liked to draw
you a four dimensional picture. However, government cuts have meant that Cambridge
university can aord only two dimensional screens. I have therefore shown time in the
vertical direction and used perspective to show two of the three space directions. You can
see that even the outgoing light rays are bent towards each other and so are converging
rather than diverging. This means that there is a closed trapped surface which is one of
the alternative third conditions of the Hawking-Penrose theorem.
21

r=0 singularity
trapped
surface
r = 2M
event
horizon
surface
of star
interior
of star
If the Cosmic Censorship Conjecture is correct the trapped surface and the singularity
it predicts can not be visible from far away. Thus there must be a region of spacetime
from which it is not possible to escape to innity. This region is said to be a black hole.
Its boundary is called the event horizon and it is a null surface formed by the light rays
that just fail to get away to innity. As we saw in the last lecture, the area of a cross
section of the event horizon can never decrease, at least in the classical theory. This, and
perturbation calculations of spherical collapse, suggest that black holes will settle down to
a stationary state. The no hair theorem, proved by the combined work of Israel, Carter,
Robinson and myself, shows that the only stationary black holes in the absence of matter
elds are the Kerr solutions. These are characterized by two parameters, the mass M and
the angular momentum J . The no hair theorem was extended by Robinson to the case
where there was an electromagnetic eld. This added a third parameter Q, the electric
charge. The no hair theorem has not been proved for the Yang-Mills eld, but the only
dierence seems to be the addition of one or more integers that label a discrete family of
unstable solutions. It can be shown that there are no more continuous degrees of freedom
22

No Hair Theorem
Stationary black holes are characterised by mass M , angular
momentum J and electric charge Q.
of time independent Einstein-Yang-Mills black holes.
What the no hair theorems show is that a large amount of information is lost when
a body collapses to form a black hole. The collapsing body is described by a very large
number of parameters. There are the types of matter and the multipole moments of the
mass distribution. Yet the black hole that forms is completely independent of the type
of matter and rapidly loses all the multipole moments except the rst two: the monopole
moment, which is the mass, and the dipole moment, which is the angular momentum.
This loss of information didn't really matter in the classical theory. One could say that
all the information about the collapsing body was still inside the black hole. It would be
very dicult for an observer outside the black hole to determine what the collapsing body
was like. However, in the classical theory it was still possible in principle. The observer
would never actually lose sight of the collapsing body. Instead it would appear to slow
down and get very dim as it approached the event horizon. But the observer could still see
what it was made of and how the mass was distributed. However, quantum theory changed
all this. First, the collapsing body would send out only a limited number of photons before
it crossed the event horizon. They would be quite insucient to carry all the information
about the collapsing body. This means that in quantum theory there's no way an outside
observer can measure the state of the collapsed body. One might not think this mattered
23

too much because the information would still be inside the black hole even if one couldn't
measure it from the outside. But this is where the second eect of quantum theory on
black holes comes in. As I will show, quantum theory will cause black holes to radiate
and lose mass. Eventually it seems that they will disappear completely, taking with them
the information inside them. I will give arguments that this information really is lost and
doesn't come back in some form. As I will show, this loss of information would introduce a
new level of uncertainty into physics over and above the usual uncertainty associated with
quantum theory. Unfortunately, unlike Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, this extra level
will be rather dicult to conrm experimentally in the case of black holes. But as I will
argue in my third lecture, there's a sense in which we may have already observed it in the
measurements of
uctuations in the microwave background.
The fact that quantum theory causes black holes to radiate was rst discovered by doing
quantum eld theory on the background of a black hole formed by collapse. To see how
this comes about it is helpful to use what are normally called Penrose diagrams. However,
I think Penrose himself would agree they really should be called Carter diagrams because
Carter was the rst to use them systematically. In a spherical collapse the spacetime won't
depend on the angles s and . All the geometry will take place in the r-t plane. Because
any two dimensional plane is conformal to
at space one can represent the causal structure
by a diagram in which null lines in the r-t plane are at 45 degrees to the vertical.
centre of
symmetry
r = 0
surfaces
(t=constant)
two spheres
(r=constant)
I +
I _
I 0
+ ¥ ¥ )
_ ¥ _ ¥ )
(r = ;t =+
(r = ;t =
Let's start with
at Minkowski space. That has a Carter-Penrose diagram which is a
triangle standing on one corner. The two diagonal sides on the right correspond to the
past and future null innities I referred to in my rst lecture. These are really at innity
but all distances are shrunk by a conformal factor as one approaches past or future null
24

innity. Each point of this triangle corresponds to a two sphere of radius r. r = 0 on the
vertical line on the left, which represents the center of symmetry, and r !1on the right
of the diagram.
One can easily see from the diagram that every point in Minkowski space is in the
past of future null innity I+ . This means there is no black hole and no event horizon.
However, if one has a spherical body collapsing the diagram is rather dierent.
singularity
event horizon
collapsing
body
black
hole +
_
It looks the same in the past but now the top of the triangle has been cut off and replaced by
a horizontal boundary. This is the singularity that the Hawking-Penrose theorem predicts.
One can now see that there are points under this horizontal line that are not in the past
of future null innity I+ . In other words there is a black hole. The event horizon, the
boundary of the black hole, is a diagonal line that comes down from the top right corner
and meets the vertical line corresponding to the center of symmetry.
One can consider a scalar eld t on this background. If the spacetime were time
independent, a solution of the wave equation, that contained only positive frequencies on
scri minus, would also be positive frequency on scri plus. This would mean that there
would be no particle creation, and there would be no out going particles on scri plus, if
there were no scalar particles initially.
However, the metric is time dependent during the collapse. This will cause a solution
+
that is positive frequency on I- to be partly negative frequency when it gets to I.
One can calculate this mixing by taking a wave with time dependence ei!u on I+ and
propagating it back to I. When one does that one nds that the part of the wave that
passes near the horizon is very blue shifted. Remarkably it turns out that the mixing is
independent of the details of the collapse in the limit of late times. It depends only on the
25

surface gravity . that measures the strength of the gravitational eld on the horizon of
the black hole. The mixing of positive and negative frequencies leads to particle creation.
When I rst studied this eect in 1973 I expected I would nd a burst of emission
during the collapse but that then the particle creation would die out and one would be
left with a black hole that was truely black. To my great surprise I found that after a
burst during the collapse there remained a steady rate of particle creation and emission.
Moreover, the emission was exactly thermal with a temperature of 2. . This was just what
was required to make consistent the idea that a black hole had an entropy proportional
to the area of its event horizon. Moreover, it xed the constant of proportionality to be a

quarter in Planck units, in which G = c = h = 1. This makes the unit of area 1066 cm2
so a black hole of the mass of the Sun would have an entropy of the order of 1078.This
would re
ect the enormous number of dierent ways in which it could be made.
Black Hole Thermal Radiation

Temperature T =
2.
1
Entropy S =
A
4
When I made my original discovery of radiation from black holes it seemed a miracle
that a rather messy calculation should lead to emission that was exactly thermal. However,
joint work with Jim Hartle and Gary Gibbons uncovered the deep reason. To explain it I
shall start with the example of the Schwarzschild metric.
Schwarzschild Metric
. . 
1
2M 2M
ds2 = - 1 - r
dt2 +1 - dr2 + r 2(d2 +sin2 d2)
r
This represents the gravitational eld that a black hole would settle down to if it were
non rotating. In the usual r and t coordinates there is an apparent singularity at the
Schwarzschild radius r =2M . However, this is just caused by a bad choice of coordinates.
One can choose other coordinates in which the metric is regular there.
26

r=0 singularity I +
r=0 singularity
future event horizon past event horizon
r = 2M
r=constant
1
2
3
4
I
_
I 0
+
_
The Carter-Penrose diagram has the form of a diamond with
attened top and bottom.
It is divided into four regions by the two null surfaces on which r =2M . The region
on the right, marked
on the diagram is the asymptotically
at space in which we are
1
supposed to live. It has past and future null innities I- and I+ like
at spacetime. There
is another asymptotically
at region
on the left that seems to correspond to another
3
universe that is connected to ours only through a wormhole. However, as we shall see, it
is connected to our region through imaginary time. The null surface from bottom left to
top right is the boundary of the region from which one can escape to the innity on the
right. Thus it is the future event horizon. The epithet future being added to distinguish
it from the past event horizon which goes from bottom right to top left.
Let us now return to the Schwarzschild metric in the original r and t coordinates. If
one puts t = i. one gets a positive denite metric. I shall refer to such positive denite
metrics as Euclidean even though they may be curved. In the Euclidean-Schwarzschild
metric there is again an apparent singularity at r =2M . However, one can dene a new
radial coordinate x to be 4M (1 - 2Mr1 )
12
.
Euclidean-Schwarzschild Metric
2 . 2 2
2 r
ds2 = x
d. + dx2 + r 2(d2 +sin2 d2)
4M 4M 2
The metric in the x - . plane then becomes like the origin of polar coordinates if one
identies the coordinate . with period 8M . Similarly other Euclidean black hole metrics
will have apparent singularities on their horizons which can be removed by identifying the
27

r = constant
r=2M
2
period
t = 8pM
t = t
1t = t
imaginary time coordinate with period 2

. .
So what is the signicance of having imaginary time identied with some period .
To see this consider the amplitude to go from some eld conguration 1 on the surface
t1 to a conguration 2 on the surface t2. This will be given by the matrix element of
eiH (t2t1).
However, one can also represent this amplitude as a path integral over all elds
t between t1 and t2 which agree with the given elds 1 and 2 on the two surfaces.
f
f
= f 2;t= t2
= f 1;t= t1
<2;t2 1;t1 > = <2 exp(iH(t2 - t1)) 1 >
j| |
= D[]exp(iI[])
One now chooses the time separation (t2 - t1) to be pure imaginary and equal to .
One also puts the initial eld 1 equal to the nal eld 2 and sums over a complete basis
of states n. On the left one has the expectation value of eH summed over all states.
This is just the thermodynamic partition function Z at the temperature T = 1 .
On the right hand of the equation one has a path integral. One puts 1 = 2 and
28

period
b
t2 - t1 = i, 2 = 1
Z = <n exp(H) n >
j|
= D[]exp(iI^[])
sums over all eld congurations n. This means that eectively one is doing the path
integral over all elds t on a spacetime that is identied periodically in the imaginary
time direction with period . Thus the partition function for the eld t at temperature
T is given by a path integral over all elds on a Euclidean spacetime. This spacetime is
periodic in the imaginary time direction with period p = T1 .
If one does the path integral in
at spacetime identied with period p in the imaginary
time direction one gets the usual result for the partition function of black body radiation.
However, as we have just seen, the Euclidean-Schwarzschild solution is also periodic in
2
imaginary time with period . . This means that elds on the Schwarzschild background
will behave as if they were in a thermal state with temperature 2. .
The periodicity in imaginary time explained why the messy calculation of frequency
mixing led to radiation that was exactly thermal. However, this derivation avoided the
problem of the very high frequencies that take part in the frequency mixing approach.
It can also be applied when there are interactions between the quantum elds on the
background. The fact that the path integral is on a periodic background implies that all
physical quantities like expectation values will be thermal. This would have been very
dicult to establish in the frequency mixing approach.
One can extend these interactions to include interactions with the gravitational eld
itself. One starts with a background metric g0 such as the Euclidean-Schwarzschild metric
that is a solution of the classical eld equations. One can then expand the action I in a
power series in the perturbations g about g0.
29

I[g]= I[g0]+ I2(g)2 + I3(g)3 + ::.
The linear term vanishes because the background is a solution of the eld equations. The
quadratic term can be regarded as describing gravitons on the background while the cubic
and higher terms describe interactions between the gravitons. The path integral over
the quadratic terms are nite. There are non renormalizable divergences at two loops in
pure gravity but these cancel with the fermions in supergravity theories. It is not known
whether supergravity theories have divergences at three loops or higher because no one
has been brave or foolhardy enough to try the calculation. Some recent work indicates
that they may be nite to all orders. But even if there are higher loop divergences they
will make very little dierence except when the background is curved on the scale of the
Planck length, 1033 cm.
More interesting than the higher order terms is the zeroth order term, the action of
the background metric g0.
1
1
d4
x +
R(g)
12
K(h)
12
d3
x
I =
-
16.
8.
The usual Einstein-Hilbert action for general relativity is the volume integral of the scalar
curvature R. This is zero for vacuum solutions so one might think that the action of the
Euclidean-Schwarzschild solution was zero. However, there is also a surface term in the
action proportional to the integral of K, the trace of the second fundemental form of the
boundary surface. When one includes this and subtracts off the surface term for
at space
one nds the action of the Euclidean-Schwarzschild metric is 2 where p is the period in
16.
imaginary time at innity. Thus the dominant contribution to the path integral for the
16. .
partition function Z is e
2

. 2
Z = exp(En)= exp
- 16.
If one dierentiates log Z with respect to the period p one gets the expectation value
of the energy, or in other words, the mass.
dp
= - dp
(log Z)=
8.
So this gives the mass M = 8

. . This conrms the relation between the mass and the
period, or inverse temperature, that we already knew. However, one can go further. By
30

standard thermodynamic arguments, the log of the partition function is equal to minus
the free energy F divided by the temperature T.
F
log Z =
- T
And the free energy is the mass or energy plus the temperature times the entropy S.
F = + TS
Putting all this together one sees that the action of the black hole gives an entropy of
4M2 .
2 1
S = =4M2 =
A
16. 4
This is exactly what is required to make the laws of black holes the same as the laws of
thermodynamics.
Why does one get this intrinsic gravitational entropy which has no parallel in other
quantum eld theories. The reason is gravity allows dierent topologies for the spacetime
manifold.
IDENTIFYS 1
S 2
Boundary at infinity
In the case we are considering the Euclidean-Schwarzschild solution has a boundary at
innity that has topology S2 × S1.The S2 is a large space like two sphere at innity and
31

the S1 corresponds to the imaginary time direction which is identied periodically. One
can ll in this boundary with metrics of at least two dierent topologies. One of course
is the Euclidean-Schwarzschild metric. This has topology R2 × S2, that is the Euclidean
two plane times a two sphere. The other is R3 × S1, the topology of Euclidean
at space
periodically identied in the imaginary time direction. These two topologies have dierent
Euler numbers. The Euler number of periodically identied
at space is zero, while that
of the Euclidean-Schwarzschild solution is two.
t 2
t 1t 1 )
surface term
1
= 2M(t 2_ t 1)
volume term
1_
= 2M(t 2
Total action = M (2 - 1)
The signicance of this is as follows: on the topology of periodically identied
at space
one can nd a periodic time function . whose gradient is no where zero and which agrees
with the imaginary time coordinate on the boundary at innity. One can then work out
the action of the region between two surfaces 1 and 2. There will be two contributions
to the action, a volume integral over the matter Lagrangian, plus the Einstein-Hilbert
Lagrangian and a surface term. If the solution is time independent the surface term over
. = 1 will cancel with the surface term over . = 2. Thus the only net contribution
to the surface term comes from the boundary at innity. This gives half the mass times
the imaginary time interval (2 - 1). If the mass is non-zero there must be non-zero
matter elds to create the mass. One can show that the volume integral over the matter
1
Lagrangian plus the Einstein-Hilbert Lagrangian also gives 2 M (2 - 1). Thus the total
action is M (2 - 1). If one puts this contribution to the log of the partition function into
the thermodynamic formulae one nds the expectation value of the energy to be the mass,
32

as one would expect. However, the entropy contributed by the background eld will be
zero.
The situation is dierent however with the Euclidean-Schwarzschild solution.
t = t 2
volume term = 0
fixed two
sphere
r = 2M
surface term from corner
= 1
2 M(t 2 _ t 1 )
t =
surface term
1
= 2M(t 2_ t 1)
t 1
Total action including corner contribution = M (2 - 1)
1
Total action without corner contribution =
2 M (2 - 1)
Because the Euler number is two rather than zero one can't nd a time function . whose
gradient is everywhere non-zero. The best one can do is choose the imaginary time coordinate
of the Schwarzschild solution. This has a xed two sphere at the horizon where .
behaves like an angular coordinate. If one now works out the action between two surfaces
of constant . the volume integral vanishes because there are no matter elds and the scalar
curvature is zero. The trace K surface term at innity again gives 1 M (2 - 1). However
2
there is now another surface term at the horizon where the 1 and 2 surfaces meet in a
1
corner. One can evaluate this surface term and nd that it also is equal to 2 M (2 - 1).
Thus the total action for the region between 1 and 2 is M (2 - 1). If one used this action
with 2 - 1 = p one would nd that the entropy was zero. However, when one looks at
the action of the Euclidean Schwarzschild solution from a four dimensional point of view
rather than a 3+1, there is no reason to include a surface term on the horizon because the
metric is regular there. Leaving out the surface term on the horizon reduces the action by
one quarter the area of the horizon, which is just the intrinsic gravitational entropy of the
black hole.
The fact that the entropy of black holes is connected with a topological invariant,
the Euler number, is a strong argument that it will remain even if we have to go to a
33

more fundemental theory. This idea is anathema to most particle physicists who are a
very conservative lot and want to make everything like Yang-Mills theory. They agree that
the radiation from black holes seems to be thermal and independent of how the hole was
formed if the hole is large compared to the Planck length. But they would claim that when
the black hole loses mass and gets down to the Planck size, quantum general relativity will
break down and all bets will be o. However, I shall describe a thought experiment with
black holes in which information seems to be lost yet the curvature outside the horizons
always remains small.
It has been known for some time that one can create pairs of positively and negatively
charged particles in a strong electric eld. One way of looking at this is to note that in

at Euclidean space a particle of charge q such as an electron would move in a circle in a
uniform electric eld E. One can analytically continue this motion from the imaginary time
. to real time t. One gets a pair of positively and negatively charged particles accelerating
away from each other pulled apart by the electric eld.
world line
of electron
world line
of positron
t = 0
Minkowski space
Electric Field
world line of electron
t = 0
Euclidean space
The process of pair creation is described by chopping the two diagrams in half along
34

the t =0 or . = 0 lines. One then joins the upper half of the Minkowski space diagram to
the lower half of the Euclidean space diagram.
electron and positron
accelerating in electric
field
Minkowski space
Euclidean space
electron tunneling through
Euclidean space
This gives a picture in which the positively and negatively charged particles are really the
same particle. It tunnels through Euclidean space to get from one Minkowski space world
line to the other. To a rst approximation the probability for pair creation is eI where
2m2
Euclidean action I = .
qE
Pair creation by strong electric elds has been observed experimentally and the rate agrees
with these estimates.
Black holes can also carry electric charges so one might expect that they could also be
pair created. However the rate would be tiny compared to that for electron positron pairs
because the mass to charge ratio is 1020 times bigger. This means that any electric eld
would be neutralized by electron positron pair creation long before there was a signicant
probability of pair creating black holes. However there are also black hole solutions with
magnetic charges. Such black holes couldn't be produced by gravitational collapse because
there are no magnetically charged elementary particles. But one might expect that they
could be pair created in a strong magnetic eld. In this case there would be no competition
from ordinary particle creation because ordinary particles do not carry magnetic charges.
So the magnetic eld could become strong enough that there was a signicant chance of
creating a pair of magnetically charged black holes.
In 1976 Ernst found a solution that represented two magnetically charged black holes
accelerating away from each other in a magnetic eld.
35

charged black hole
accelerating in magnetic field
t = 0
Lorentzian space
black hole
t = 0
Euclidean space
If one analytically continues it to imaginary time one has a picture very like that of the
electron pair creation. The black hole moves on a circle in a curved Euclidean space just
like the electron moves in a circle in
at Euclidean space. There is a complication in the
black hole case because the imaginary time coordinate is periodic about the horizon of the
black hole as well as about the center of the circle on which the black hole moves. One has
to adjust the mass to charge ratio of the black hole to make these periods equal. Physically
this means that one chooses the parameters of the black hole so that the temperature of the
black hole is equal to the temperature it sees because it is accelerating.. The temperature
of a magnetically charged black hole tends to zero as the charge tends to the mass in
Planck units. Thus for weak magnetic elds, and hence low acceleration, one can always
match the periods.
Like in the case of pair creation of electrons one can describe pair creation of black
holes by joining the lower half of the imaginary time Euclidean solution to the upper half
of the real time Lorentzian solution.
One can think of the black hole as tunneling through the Euclidean region and emerging
as a pair of oppositely charged black holes that accelerate away from each other pulled
36

black hole
accelerating
black hole tunneling through
Euclidean space
Lorentzian space
Euclidean space
apart by the magnetic eld. The accelerating black hole solution is not asymptotically
at
because it tends to a uniform magnetic eld at innity. But one can nevertheless use it to
estimate the rate of pair creation of black holes in a local region of magnetic eld.
One could imagine that after being created the black holes move far apart into regions
without magnetic eld. One could then treat each black hole separately as a black hole
in asymptotically
at space. One could throw an arbitrarily large amount of matter and
information into each hole. The holes would then radiate and lose mass. However, they
couldn't lose magnetic charge because there are no magnetically charged particles. Thus
they would eventually get back to their original state with the mass slightly bigger than the
charge. One could then bring the two holes back together again and let them annihilate
each other. The annihilation process can be regarded as the time reverse of the pair
creation. Thus it is represented by the top half of the Euclidean solution joined to the
bottom half of the Lorentzian solution. In between the pair creation and the annihilation
one can have a long Lorentzian period in which the black holes move far apart, accrete
matter, radiate and then come back together again. But the topology of the gravitational
eld will be the topology of the Euclidean Ernst solution. This is S2 × S2 minus a point.
One might worry that the Generalized Second Law of Thermodynamics would be
violated when the black holes annihilated because the black hole horizon area would have
disappeared. However it turns out that the area of the acceleration horizon in the Ernst
solution is reduced from the area it would have if there were no pair creation. This is a
rather delicate calculation because the area of the acceleration horizon is innite in both
cases. Nevertheless there is a well dened sense in which their dierence is nite and equal
to the black hole horizon area plus the dierence in the action of the solutions with and
without pair creation. This can be understood as saying that pair creation is a zero energy
37

black hole tunneling through
Euclidean space to annihilate
Lorentzian space
Euclidean space
Euclidean space
matter and information
thrown into black hole
which radiates
black hole tunneling through
Euclidean space to pair create
process; the Hamiltonian with pair creation is the same as the Hamiltonian without.I'm
very grateful to Simon Ross and Gary Horovitz for calculating this reduction just in time
for this lecture. It is miracles like this, and I mean the result not that they got it, that
convince me that black hole thermodynamics can't just be a low energy approximation.
I believe that gravitational entropy won't disappear even if we have to go to a more
fundemental theory of quantum gravity.
One can see from this thought experiment that one gets intrinsic gravitational entropy
and loss of information when the topology of spacetime is dierent from that of
at
Minkowski space. If the black holes that pair create are large compared to the Planck
size the curvature outside the horizons will be everywhere small compared to the Planck
scale. This means the approximation I have made of ignoring cubic and higher terms in
the perturbations should be good. Thus the conclusion that information can be lost in
black holes should be reliable.
38

If information is lost in macroscopic black holes it should also be lost in processes
in which microscopic, virtual black holes appear because of quantum
uctuations of the
metric. One could imagine that particles and information could fall into these holes and
get lost. Maybe that is where all those odd socks went. Quantities like energy and electric
charge, that are coupled to gauge elds, would be conserved but other information and
global charge would be lost. This would have far reaching implications for quantum theory.
It is normally assumed that a system in a pure quantum state evolves in a unitary way
through a succession of pure quantum states. But if there is loss of information through the
appearance and disappearance of black holes there can't be a unitary evolution. Instead
the loss of information will mean that the nal state after the black holes have disappeared
will be what is called a mixed quantum state. This can be regarded as an ensemble of
dierent pure quantum states each with its own probability. But because it is not with
certainty in any one state one can not reduce the probability of the nal state to zero
by interfering with any quantum state. This means that gravity introduces a new level
of unpredictability into physics over and above the uncertainty usually associated with
quantum theory. I shall show in the next lecture we may have already observed this extra
uncertainty. It means an end to the hope of scientic determinism that we could predict
the future with certainty. It seems God still has a few tricks up his sleeve.
A
A
A
A
A
A
39

3. Quantum Cosmology
S. W. Hawki