THE SUPREMES

[wertz]

Since David Souter announced his resignation from the Supreme Court, speculation has been rampant about who President Obama might nominate as his replacement.

For those who might wish to discuss the potential candidates a bit more intelligently (and, really, who wouldn't?), the following are among contenders mentioned so far:

Merrick Garland (

Comments

[zulfiqar_rgh]

Indeed. It's a good point. When talking about Justice Souter, I do need to remember to say things like "openly gay" versus just "gay," don't I? Or, perhaps that's just insensitive? Maybe I should stick to the official line of "active jogger."

I'm not sold on Sotomayer, personally. I doubt Obama will be completely, either. I know Obama is a big fan of Richard Posner, and I don't really get that kind of vibe out of her. He'll be looking for a left(ish) version of Posner, I'm sure of it. The academics seem most likely because of that. But I'm also sure that Axelrod & Co. will be pushing the political considerations. They may want the fight with the REPS over Sotomayer. After all, it could further alienate the Hispanic Community from the GOP.

This is a fun guessing game, actually. In private discussions with friends and students, I've proven to be really good at guessing Obama's picks right. But on this one I have no clue. I doubt it will be Sullivan, or my favorite cute boy, Yoshina. I'd say following the pragmatism trail is the best bet. Unless, of course, Obama "goes big." He does like the big show, after all...

[wertz]

Yeah, this one is hard to second-guess. I suspect that, for this nominee, he'll go with someone he thinks is "safe"and won't create too many waves in the advise and consent process. I'm just not sure who that is.

[zulfiqar_rgh]

Perhaps. What's odd about all of this is that he's taking any time at all. Pat Leahy said in an interview today that both he and The White House had known for some time that Souter was retiring. So why the wait now? Either they really have been busy, not unreasonable considering all that's been going on, or they're letting Sotomayer float out there to see what all comes to the surface. Or perhaps Barry is dithering. Presidents have been known to agonize over these things. Clinton and Cuomo, Reagan and Bork/What'sHisFace/Kennedy, Bush & Eisenhower and their collective buyers remorse, etc. all good examples of difficult nomination issues.

I do think an academic is more likely than not, however.

[wertz]

Yeah, apparently Obama had a shortlist together by mid-December 2008. Of course, it could be tough to decide who from that list to put forward...

[zulfiqar_rgh]

I think so. As with the Cabinet, the Dems have quite a lot of talent at the moment. Well, at least it seems like they do. Perhaps it's just how well they stack up against the Republicans that makes it seem so much like too many A-listers for not enough positions...

[wertz]

Yeah, it might be relative...

[zulfiqar_rgh]

Well, I think we now know why they've waited. It's so not to kill the news cycle on the Health Care news they're announcing today. Krugman is happy; Ezra Klein is nervous. The numbers are big. These factors probably mean a pretty big news cycle. I bet they don't want to step on it. I bet we get the pick next Monday. Chuck Todd says he has the leaked "short list" on his "First Read" blog today. The names? These 6:

The co-frontrunners (in no particular order): Diane Wood of the 7th Circuit, Solicitor General Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor of the 2nd Circuit, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Merrick Garland of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals.

Disappointing the GLBT names didn't make the cut. Not surprised, though. There's no way that they'll get in the way of this Health Care stuff that's coming in June. A big SCOTUS fight would do just that. Looks like he will go as liberal as he can - without a fight. I'm okay with waiting - for now. But if he gets three picks, then I would want one of them to be openly out. I really do love pragmatism as a philosophy, but it does struggle to include political/minority issues. To some extent, I think we're seeing the disadvantage of pragmatism in action with this pick. On the other hand, I don't really dislike any of those picks, either. I'm pretty sure they would all do what liberals would want them to do with their votes.

[wertz]

Hmmn... Pity about Leah Ward Sears, too.