Oscar Pick - Best Picture
There's four qualities that are important for a Best Picture winner, IMO. Good, creative plot; characters who feel like real people; re-watchability (if it's the best thing made this year, it should be one that's worth watching more than once) and audience appeal (if most people don't want to see it, it's probably not the year's best movie).
Avatar has a lazy, uncreative plot, poor characterization, is somewhat rewatchable as an action movie, a great popcorn flick, and very popular. I fully support it walking away with the visual effects, art direction, etc. awards, but it probably didn't even deserve to be nominated for Best Picture. Nonetheless, it's probably likely to win - the Academy wants to show they're willing to give Best Picture to a sci-fi movie.
District 9 is actually a better movie, if they wanted to pick a science fiction one. It's harder to get people to empathize with insectoid aliens than tall blue people, but the movie pulls it off easily. Characterization is decent, though not great; the story, despite the rather hamfisted-ness of the message (a fault Avatar has equally) is well done and interspersing the documentary bits is a good touch; it's popular and I'd like to watch it again.
Up in the Air is far more conventional Oscar fare. Character development is, well, good, but the main character doesn't strike me as someone who could actually exist in real life. (The younger supporting actress shouldn't get the Oscar for that - she can't cry realistically.) The plot's good. I don't know how broad the popular appeal is, and while I enjoyed it well enough it's not something I'd be interested in seeing again.
The Hurt Locker. I only saw this one yesterday, in reaction to all its nominations, though I'd heard it was good before. Plot and characterization are excellent, but it feels almost more like a work of art than a movie. It gives the same sense as reading some classic novels: I ought to see this, I enjoy it at some points, but it's something you observe from the outside rather than something that draws you in. I'm impressed, but wouldn't watch it again. Kathryn Bigelow should get best director for it, as it's extremely well done - but Best Picture should go to something your average person would actually enjoy watching.
Up. It has an amazingly creative plot, and animation allows it options that aren't available to live action because there's no reason the laws of physics need to apply. The characters are well-drawn, endearing, and evolve over the movie. The villain is somewhat understandable (a not-necessarily bad goal morphs into obsession and madness over time) rather than a cardboard Evil Person as in Avatar and District 9. The themes of family and being able to leave behind the past are clear and true and don't feel as anvilicious as Avatar or District 9. It's enjoyable, popular, I went to see it twice in the theatre and would watch it again. It's the only movie on this list of 5 (the only 5 of the nominees I've seen) that made me cry. It's heartwarming, and enough picks have gone to downer movies. It's the only one of the five that merges very good filmmaking and writing with a movie that's genuinely enjoyable. So Up is my pick for Best Picture.
I know it won't actually win - the win will go to Avatar, despite the lack of quality in everything but action and special effects and the relative laziness in worldbuilding (come on, it's a completely alien planet, do something more than fiddling with size, color, and number of legs!), and even if Avatar didn't exist Up wouldn't have a chance because a lot of the people who vote are actors, who naturally prefer movies that have actors in them. But Up is still the best movie made in the last year.
Avatar has a lazy, uncreative plot, poor characterization, is somewhat rewatchable as an action movie, a great popcorn flick, and very popular. I fully support it walking away with the visual effects, art direction, etc. awards, but it probably didn't even deserve to be nominated for Best Picture. Nonetheless, it's probably likely to win - the Academy wants to show they're willing to give Best Picture to a sci-fi movie.
District 9 is actually a better movie, if they wanted to pick a science fiction one. It's harder to get people to empathize with insectoid aliens than tall blue people, but the movie pulls it off easily. Characterization is decent, though not great; the story, despite the rather hamfisted-ness of the message (a fault Avatar has equally) is well done and interspersing the documentary bits is a good touch; it's popular and I'd like to watch it again.
Up in the Air is far more conventional Oscar fare. Character development is, well, good, but the main character doesn't strike me as someone who could actually exist in real life. (The younger supporting actress shouldn't get the Oscar for that - she can't cry realistically.) The plot's good. I don't know how broad the popular appeal is, and while I enjoyed it well enough it's not something I'd be interested in seeing again.
The Hurt Locker. I only saw this one yesterday, in reaction to all its nominations, though I'd heard it was good before. Plot and characterization are excellent, but it feels almost more like a work of art than a movie. It gives the same sense as reading some classic novels: I ought to see this, I enjoy it at some points, but it's something you observe from the outside rather than something that draws you in. I'm impressed, but wouldn't watch it again. Kathryn Bigelow should get best director for it, as it's extremely well done - but Best Picture should go to something your average person would actually enjoy watching.
Up. It has an amazingly creative plot, and animation allows it options that aren't available to live action because there's no reason the laws of physics need to apply. The characters are well-drawn, endearing, and evolve over the movie. The villain is somewhat understandable (a not-necessarily bad goal morphs into obsession and madness over time) rather than a cardboard Evil Person as in Avatar and District 9. The themes of family and being able to leave behind the past are clear and true and don't feel as anvilicious as Avatar or District 9. It's enjoyable, popular, I went to see it twice in the theatre and would watch it again. It's the only movie on this list of 5 (the only 5 of the nominees I've seen) that made me cry. It's heartwarming, and enough picks have gone to downer movies. It's the only one of the five that merges very good filmmaking and writing with a movie that's genuinely enjoyable. So Up is my pick for Best Picture.
I know it won't actually win - the win will go to Avatar, despite the lack of quality in everything but action and special effects and the relative laziness in worldbuilding (come on, it's a completely alien planet, do something more than fiddling with size, color, and number of legs!), and even if Avatar didn't exist Up wouldn't have a chance because a lot of the people who vote are actors, who naturally prefer movies that have actors in them. But Up is still the best movie made in the last year.