New factor in electricity market
Today is another (likely last for a while) sunny day here. Till October or even November we will have such sunny days periodically here. And please look to the next chart below (chart from Lithuanian electric grid operator Litgrid):
Blue line shows planned consumption of electricity in this country each hour. It is calculated using long term historical data. Red line shows forecasted consumption of electricity in this country each hour. It is calculated 1-2 days in advance and usually is very accurate. While yellow line shows actual consumption of electricity each hour. It is not diffcult to see that actual consumption is lower than forecasted. Why ?
And here new factor has own impact: the electricty produced "at home". It means the electricity produced by people and companies using solar panels for own needs. They are called producing consumers. Last year total installed capacity of such producers reached 150 MW. The difference between forecasted consumption and actual consumption is almost equall to this installed capacity "at home". Likely this year this capacity will reach 250 MW. And it is expected to grow rapidly. In a 3 years likely this capacity will reach 500 MW while in 2027-2028 this capacity will reach 1000 MW (official startegy speaks about 2025 but likely this will be reached 2-3 years later). This also will mean that on sunny days electricity companies will be forced to deal with significantly lower demand since most of the electricity needed will be produced "at home". And power plants will be forced to compete offering exceptionally favourable proposals to consumers. It will be interesting to see :)
E,g. the data from cloudy April 14 shows that forecasted consumption and actual consumption are very close to each other:
Blue line shows planned consumption of electricity in this country each hour. It is calculated using long term historical data. Red line shows forecasted consumption of electricity in this country each hour. It is calculated 1-2 days in advance and usually is very accurate. While yellow line shows actual consumption of electricity each hour. It is not diffcult to see that actual consumption is lower than forecasted. Why ?
And here new factor has own impact: the electricty produced "at home". It means the electricity produced by people and companies using solar panels for own needs. They are called producing consumers. Last year total installed capacity of such producers reached 150 MW. The difference between forecasted consumption and actual consumption is almost equall to this installed capacity "at home". Likely this year this capacity will reach 250 MW. And it is expected to grow rapidly. In a 3 years likely this capacity will reach 500 MW while in 2027-2028 this capacity will reach 1000 MW (official startegy speaks about 2025 but likely this will be reached 2-3 years later). This also will mean that on sunny days electricity companies will be forced to deal with significantly lower demand since most of the electricity needed will be produced "at home". And power plants will be forced to compete offering exceptionally favourable proposals to consumers. It will be interesting to see :)
E,g. the data from cloudy April 14 shows that forecasted consumption and actual consumption are very close to each other: